Early 2026 brought a powerful test of resilience to financial markets.
War troughs and an algorithm‑driven rally
When March 30 the U.S. market slid to the bottom triggered by the escalation of the Iran conflict, many pessimists forecasted a long, painful bear market.
However, tech giants quickly proved that panic is the perfect moment for aggressive buying. Between the end of March and June 2 the Nasdaq 100 shot up over 33%. The main engine behind this surge was a reborn, almost euphoric belief in the commercial potential of artificial intelligence. The fear of an AI bubble burst evaporated, and Nvidia began smashing new records.
Investors rushed en masse to shares of other AI‑related companies, inflating valuations to levels that had seemed abstract only a short time ago. By the end of May the index for the first time in its history crossed the 30,000‑point threshold.
Since the start of the year the index has already risen by about 18%, proving to skeptics that Silicon Valley can turn every crisis into a golden opportunity.
Chart. Nasdaq 100 Index
Source: TradingView
See also: Elon Musk wants your money! SpaceX goes public and generates massive losses
Betting on the future – the Kalshi market view
Although past results are impressive, dark clouds of uncertainty are clearly forming on the horizon. Kalshi’s popular predictive platform traders, instead of blindly believing in the eternal Big Tech rally, approach reality with a healthy dose of skepticism. They believe the tech rally in the second half of 2026 will clearly lose its current momentum. There are many signs supporting this scenario – from continuously rising AI ecosystem costs to overlapping losses brought by OpenAI.
The odds that the Nasdaq 100 will finish December above 30,000 points are currently assessed at a modest 50%. Note that during Tuesday’s trading the index was only 1% below that psychological threshold.
This means the market is stuck at a dead point, and traders betting on “yes” or “no” contracts are deeply divided. The final resolution of these financial bets will come from data on December 31, based on official valuations provided by Google Finance. The current stagnation shows that investors’ boundless optimism has begun to melt rapidly.
See also: Nvidia shares crashed! Jensen Huang encourages buying. “Everyone should be very excited.”
Fear of the peak and new stars on board
A detailed analysis of subsequent Kalshi contracts reveals growing short‑term pessimism among players. The odds that this year’s index peak will exceed the 32,000‑point barrier are now only 40%.
It’s worth noting that the all‑time record fell on June 3, reaching a high of 30,762 points in a single day. Since then the market has not been able to break higher. Moreover, the probability that the Nasdaq 100 will breach the 33,000‑point barrier by the end of December is estimated at a meager 27%.
These hard numbers show that speculators simply do not believe in another spectacular breakout by tech leaders. The fact that a new, extremely loud player has joined the elite group of the top one hundred non‑financial companies only adds fuel to the fire.
On Tuesday the official index member became the space industry giant – SpaceX. While Elon Musk’s entry is a prestigious energy injection, it may not be enough to lift the entire weary sector into further vertical flight.
At the same time S&P 500 is again trying to climb to the peak from June 2026, but at the market close on July 7 it reached 7,305.85 points.
Chart. S&P 500 Index
Source: TradingView
See also: Elon Musk capitulates in Europe. The result of a 120 million EUR fine imposed on the billionaire
Source: CNBC
