Euro rates are near the top of their ranges again. We don't expect the front-end to remain a driver, with now only a 30% chance of an ECB cut priced down the road despite remaining risks around the outlook. Dutch pension reforms appear to help push the 10s30s steeper as dynamics detach from the US curve
We think markets are right to price in more Bank of England easing, but the upcoming budget on 26 November can still bring both bullish and bearish surprises. Meanwhile, concerns around the US job market are offsetting the positive impact of a likely government reopening on risk sentiment
Treasuries are treading water, and really should have performed better on a risk-off Tuesday. But the 10yr seems content at above 4% for now. The 2yr has more open road to trek back down to 3.5%. Wednesday’s refunding announcement should be a box-ticking exercise. The plumbing of the money markets is where all the drama is - keep an eye on it
The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it's laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo what's been done, and an extrapolation of these circumstances result in a steeper curve from both ends. The front end does not care. The back end cares a lot (or at least should)
Investors spent Wednesday betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not only cut rates by 25bp in September but could even deliver a jumbo rate cut, after CPI data released the day before came in softer than analysts expected. Fed doves now see a huge opportunity for the central bank to focus on the slowing jobs market rather than tariff-led inflation risks that have yet to materialise.
Wall Street plunged and Treasury yields fell on recession fears, triggered by relentless tariff wrangling and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Economic growth and demand concerns weighed on oil prices too. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Gold dropped on profit booking.
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Stocks struggled with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touching one-month lows as a dour consumer confidence report put mounting economic uncertainties into sharp relief and prompted a selloff. "This is clearly a risk-off day and a continuation of a risk- off month," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
