Trade balance overseas
Yesterday we saw U.S. data on the trade balance. Analysts expected a $78 billion deficit, and the actual figure was $77.6 billion. At first glance this sounds good, but it is still the highest reading since March 2025.
This casts a big question mark over the effectiveness of the current presidential administration’s policy, which set fighting the deficit as one of its goals. It is worth noting here that the deficit is measured in absolute terms and is not even adjusted for inflation. Over the year exports rose 14%, and the deficit by a “mere” 8%. Looking at the data from this perspective, we see that the share of the deficit in both imports and exports is indeed falling.
RPP decision already today
Everything points to the fact that today’s RPP decision will be merely a formality – markets expect confirmation that interest rates will remain unchanged from March. Recall that in the early days of the Persian Gulf War Poland lowered rates from 4% to 3.75%.
Currently a window is slowly opening for further rate cuts, but given the upcoming summer season and very cautious negotiations in the Persian Gulf War, a cut now seems less likely. The market is currently focused on tomorrow’s press conference of the NBP president. Analysts will try to glean from Adam Glapiński whether it is worth betting on September cuts.
Canadian data
Yesterday also saw two readings from Canada. The first concerned the foreign trade balance – Canada recorded a surplus of $4.24 billion. It is worth noting that higher-than-expected May exports are largely due to rising energy commodities. The second reading was the Ivey PMI, a survey conducted by one of the academic centers among managers of the largest Canadian firms. A result of 56.2 points indicates a dominance of optimists, although analysts expected a much higher reading – up to 59.1 points.
How did the Canadian dollar react to this? How did the Canadian dollar react to this? Investors judged that the negative surprise in business sentiment was less important than the positive trade data, allowing the currency to gain noticeably against the U.S. dollar yesterday.
Today’s macroeconomic calendar worth noting includes:
14:00 – Romania – decision on interest rates,
20:00 – USA – Fed meeting minutes.
