Trump-Iran Tensions Rise, GPW Hits Record Highs
From President Trump’s side and the highest Iranian officials, voices are emerging that are hard to consider conciliatory, so one must expect that despite the agreement signed on June 19, which temporarily (for 60 days) and under certain conditions opened the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of further maritime disruptions remains elevated. Volatility also accompanied the bond market and the increasingly important semiconductor equity sector for global market conditions.
Meanwhile, the domestic WIG20, after a strong Friday session, unexpectedly ended the week at new price highs, even though the last NBP president’s statement after the Monetary Policy Council meeting could be interpreted as “dove‑like.” The coming week will bring the first releases of Q2 2026 earnings for US companies.
In recent weeks, investors’ focus has been mainly on macroeconomic data (a relatively strong US labor market report) and expectations regarding Fed policy (attempts to “decipher” the new president – Kevin Warsh), but in the coming weeks company reports will become increasingly important.
Results Season: Big Wall Street Banks Reveal Their Cards
These will show whether the high valuations of many market segments – especially technology – are confirmed by results and business prospects. On Tuesday, July 14, all leading banks will release results: JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo. JP Morgan’s report, considered a barometer of the US economy’s health, will be particularly important. Investors will analyze credit‑card dynamics, loan portfolio quality, write‑down levels for non‑performing loans, and may also focus on the economic outlook presented by CEO Jamie Dimon. On the same day, US inflation data for June will be released (consensus expects a decline in the annual CPI pace from 4.2% in May to 3.7%).
Bank results in the US, due to their broad exposure to households and businesses, will be among the first sources of information on the economy’s condition in the past quarter. Strong results and optimistic forecasts can support market sentiment, while signals of deteriorating credit quality or weakening customer activity can raise concerns about the growth rate, which in recent months has largely been driven by data‑center investment.
Tech Giants Will Verify Valuations
Top tech sector releases and the peak of the results season will only come in the second half of July and early August. Then the biggest US tech companies – Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Apple – will report. These companies hold the largest shares in the indices, and their results will be key to assessing the sustainability of the current tech market boom. Investors will pay special attention to AI‑related revenue dynamics, data‑center spending, and forecasts for upcoming quarters.
Already this Thursday, the second‑quarter report will be released by the world’s sixth‑largest company by market cap – Taiwan’s TSMC, the largest advanced‑chip manufacturer. The results and forecasts of this company can also be seen as one of the best barometers of demand for AI solutions and data‑center development. Q2 reports from the fastest GPW companies will be known only at the end of July.
GPW remains under the influence of favorable liquidity trends and chart techniques and is only slightly exposed to volatility in the semiconductor producers’ equity market.
Technical Analysis of WIG, mWIG40
Last week, WIG surpassed the June high, pushing the price to a new historical peak. A key support for a potential correction is the February peak at 128.2k, which the price returned to in April during a retracement. Only a break of this level would allow supply to consider a correction toward around 123k, where the current medium‑term support lies.
Similarly, the technical situation on the mWIG40 index, which also broke the June historical peak at 9880, shows a local support at the 9320 trough of the last short correction. Breaking this support would give supply a chance to steer the price toward the 8905 support.
Only a break of this second support would create the potential for a deeper correction targeting the 8000‑8250 area. From the current perspective, this is a purely hypothetical scenario, as the buying camp still controls the index.
