The WIG20 closed up 0.17%, the mWIG40 0.99%, and the sWIG80 0.13%. Trading volume on the broad market was lower than in previous sessions due to the US holiday, totaling only 1.5 billion PLN.
Among Polish blue chips, Tauron performed best, with its shares rising 1.88%. On the other side of the market were Dino shares, which were undervalued by 3.45%. Investors reacted negatively to news of a slowdown in the opening of new stores.
Barclays was not spared either, as its analyst lowered the company’s target price. It is worth noting that a day earlier, Morgan Stanley had issued a “do not buy” recommendation with a target price of 23.4 PLN.
June dollar strengthening moved too far
The pause at the Warsaw Stock Exchange allowed a weaker dollar to be captured, which after the release of Thursday’s US labor market data lost its arguments for further appreciation.
We believe that the June dollar strengthening moved too far.
Due to the large concentration of speculative positions expecting further USD appreciation, we assess that it has exhausted its potential for gains.
We also expect greater intervention activity in the yen market from the Bank of Japan, whose first intervention may have already appeared on Thursday. Historically, BoJ interventions have affected the entire basket of currencies linked to the dollar.
Polish bond yields sharply down
Is it time for interest rate cuts?
On Friday, Polish government bonds also performed solidly. Their yields continued to fall for most of the day, accelerating recently after the release of June inflation data.
In our view, the next move in interest rates will be a cut, although the most likely timing remains next year.
We still see potential for a decline in Polish government bond yields, but it is becoming increasingly limited. For 10‑year Polish bonds, we estimate this at about 20–30 basis points over six months.
At the time of writing, sentiment in Asian markets remains mixed. The Hang Seng gains about 0.9%, while the Indian Sensex about 0.5%.
A slight undervaluation accompanies the most "heated" first‑half indices – the Korean KOSPI and Japanese Nikkei lose about 0.5%.
Futures on European indices suggest an opening near neutral levels.
We expect the same scenario for the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The outcome of the session will be decided by Americans returning after a long weekend.
