WIG20 rose by 0.32 percent, collecting 1.46 billion PLN in turnover, while the broad market index WIG gained 0.13 percent with a turnover close to 1.91 billion PLN. Demand was supported by a greater appetite for risk in the underlying markets, which operated in the context of a – at least temporary – calming of the situation in the Middle East.
Oil price decline and dollar weakening
In essence, the decline in oil prices was accompanied by a weakening dollar, which for GPW meant a stronger zloty. The attempt to rebound after the last correction on Wall Street was not insignificant, although in this case it can be seen as a game in the context of heightened volatility, which at the end of the Warsaw session began to again support the supply side. Changes in the indices, as well as the market breath, indicate, however, that the session was closest to consolidation.
Only in the case of WIG20 can one speak of a symmetrical split of the index into 10 rising and 10 falling stocks, when the entire market saw a 39 percent price increase of securities with 47 percent falling and 14 percent unchanged.
Setting aside local variables, the session confirms GPW’s sensitivity to the behavior of underlying exchanges, which in the coming days of the week will have to deal with U.S. inflation readings and the IPO of SpaceX, seen as a test of investor optimism toward a tech sector rally.
From a technical perspective, the session was another day in which the market tried to rebound after last week’s pullback, but the daily candle drawn – a modest body with a dynamic upper shadow – signals ongoing activity on the supply side. In essence, bulls failed today to break the line that leads the local downtrend.
The broader picture remains dominated by the last bull failure at resistance around 3700 points, whose effect is the maintenance of the index consolidation in the 3700-3500 point zone, but also questions about the risk of WIG20 drawing a double top formation – clearer on the weekly chart – with the closing line of the pattern around the bottom of the April downtrend wave.
