Commodity rally after Trump’s remarks
On the trading floor at Książęca, it had never been hotter than on Monday, May 11. WIG20, driven by the commodity and energy sectors, showed strength that the biggest European exchanges could envy. The main architect of this frenzy turned out to be none other than President Donald Trump. His latest statement, in which he categorically rejected Iran’s terms, became the spark for global commodity markets. Investors, anticipating a geopolitical stalemate and potential supply disruptions, rushed to buy “hard” assets.
Chart. KGHM Polska Miedź share price
Source: TradingView.
Thanks to this, Orlen gained solid 2.54%, continuing its impressive upward march. At session close, one share of Orlen cost 143.86 PLN, although bulls pushed the price up to 145.11 PLN during the day. Yes, another ATH for the Polish fuel industry giant.
However, it was KGHM that stole the show. The copper giant’s shares shot up 5.32% effortlessly, breaking the psychological barrier of 356.65 PLN per share.
Chart. Orlen share price
Source: TradingView.
See also: GPW gains: PKN Orlen shares up 2.54%, KGHM up over 5%!
Silver and copper surge sharply, but bears lurk around the corner
Behind this rally lie foundations that seem almost unreal. Silver rose by nearly 6%, surpassing the 86 USD per ounce barrier. The AI industry and energy transition have turned these metals into a kind of new gold. KGHM, as one of the world’s largest producers of both metals, sits at the perfect intersection of technology and traditional mining. Yet this commodity dream could soon turn into a painful wake‑up call.
Conservative analysts are already nervously watching charts, because while the street buys dreams of copper at 15,000 USD, recommendations from BM mBank by Jakub Sargsyan and DM Trigon by Michał Kozak clearly suggest that the fuel for growth may run out as quickly as the flight. Recent reports cast a shadow over the current valuation of the Lubin company.
According to these analyses, current KGHM price levels are “overheated” and do not align with long‑term operational risk and potential commodity price stabilization. Recommendations clearly indicate that KGHM shares are set to decline. Institutional investors often use such moments of extreme euphoria to quietly exit positions, leaving “hot potatoes” in the hands of late‑comer retail players.
Chart. Spot silver price (XAG/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
Copper prices on global markets have broken the 13,900 USD per ton level.
Chart, Spot copper price
Source: Trading Economics.
See also: KGHM Polska Miedź shares surprise! The company’s breakthrough deal with GPW goes public
Why should it be so bad when it’s so good?
Pessimism in the face of KGHM records stems from pragmatic market predictions. Geopolitics is very capricious. One tweet (now more like X) or a post on Donald Trump’s Truth Social can trigger a rally, while the next round of negotiations can quickly extinguish it. Moreover, technical analysis suggests a strong market overbuy. If everyone around shouts “buy”, an experienced trader starts looking for an exit. KGHM shares above 350 PLN are priced on an ideal scenario where there is no room for the slightest mistake or, even more, a correction in the USD market.
Thanks to Trump, we currently have a beautiful rally on GPW, founded on fear and uncertainty in the Middle East. Market history teaches that record copper and silver prices often precede a sharp cooling of sentiment.
See also: Shares of XTB, CD Projekt, Dino and Orlen. Will they be the hottest companies in May? We check
Source: Biznes Radar.
