The coal thriller on the Warsaw floor has entered a phase where we see the unfolding of the plot of this commodity‑stock thriller.
The state’s drip and four mines on the line
The general meeting of Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa (JSW) unanimously approved taking out a loan of 850 million PLN from the Industrial Development Agency (ARP).
The price for maintaining financial liquidity and avoiding an immediate “game over” is, however, a hefty pledge. The resolution calls for securing real estate and movable assets of the mines: Budryk, Knurów-Szczygłowice, Pniówek, and Borynia-Zofiówka.
This is a va banque move. It should be clearly noted that JSW is the largest producer of coke coal in the entire European Union, a key player for steelmaking and European steel industry.
However, the group’s financial foundations leave much to be desired. The year 2025 ended with an astronomical consolidated net loss of 6,25 billion PLN and a negative EBITDA of about 4,99 billion PLN, despite mining 13 million tonnes of coal and producing 3,2 million tonnes of coke.
The first quarter of 2026 did not bring the hoped‑for breakthrough. Net loss deepened by another 615,9 million PLN.
Covering last year’s loss from reserve capital is insufficient, hence the decision to seek a government lifeline. The legal basis is the amendment to the Development Institutions Act, drafted by MPs of the Civic Coalition and signed on 11 May 2026 by President Karol Nawrocki.
See also: The 2026 market is preparing a surprise? “Investors should ensure their portfolios are ready for an upward trend”
A dramatic appeal from unions and a knockout bear valuation
Trade unions (JSW Solidarity, Federation of Trade Unions and Cadre) sent a dramatic letter to Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The unionists warn that current actions are insufficient, the coke segment generates massive losses, and current wages are paid from the sale of assets.
The blame falls on the flood of cheap raw material from Indonesia and the sluggishness of ministries and the European Commission, which by May 2026 had not implemented any defense mechanisms.
Stock market bears ruthlessly point out these weaknesses. The loud recommendation from Łukasz Prokopiuk on 5 February 2026 flooded the market with a chilling opinion.
The analyst issued a “sell” order and set the target price for JSW shares at 10,00 PLN, implying a specter of a spectacular drop of 64,96%.
Although the company has been implementing a restructuring plan since the fall of 2025 (a cost‑cutting agreement was signed in February, and in March ARP bought the subsidiaries PBSz and JZR for over 1 billion PLN), for many investors JSW remains a position to be crossed out.
At the market close on 9 June, the price of JSW shares fell by 1,59% to 28,54 PLN.
Chart. JSW share price
Source: TradingView.
See also: CD Projekt shares crashed, but not for long. The company announced a DLC for The Witcher 3
Chinese counterattack, i.e., the global algorithm of change
When market pessimists were preparing for catastrophic falls in JSW shares, a disaster occurred in June, but not on the floor, rather in a Chinese mine.
A tragic methane explosion killed 80 miners. Beijing authorities immediately implemented uncompromising safety checks that crippled production in the province responsible for about 25% of China’s coke coal supply.
The global shortage of raw material triggered a jump in prices worldwide.
Experts at Erste Brokerage in their June strategy, putting as much as 95% of the model portfolio on shares at the expense of bonds, point to JSW as one of the favorites.
Analysts forecast that by 2Q’2026 the company’s EBITDA will turn positive, reaching about 337 million PLN. It is estimated that by year‑end, prices realized by JSW will reach 818 PLN per tonne of coke coal and 974 PLN per tonne of coke.
With a quarterly capex capped at 0.5 billion PLN, the Silesian giant could start generating free cash flow in the second half of the year.
Will JSW actually get back on track, despite mounting problems? That will be decided not only by geopolitics but also by investor sentiment.
See also: JSW shares went crazy! Coal prices hit the market after the tragedy in China
Source: StockWatch.
