The latest mining disaster in China (which I wrote about two days ago) triggered an immediate reaction not only from authorities in Beijing but also from the entire global commodity sector.
The Chinese butterfly effect hits Silesian mines
Massive and stringent inspections caused many Chinese mines to wait for a successful inspection procedure. For global supply chains it was a powerful shock, as raw‑material fear quickly infected financial markets.
Although a temporary boom in higher coal prices buoyed mining‑related companies, a few days later a shock wave arrived. JSW shares fell by as much as 5.11% after the close on Wednesday, May 27, and ultimately settled at 27.12 PLN. It is worth noting that the recommendation from Łukasz Prokopiuk of DM BOS on February 5, 2026, was clear – sell. According to the analyst, the target price for JSW shares will drop to 10.00 PLN.
Although he did not foresee the disaster in the Chinese mine, a simple analysis of the company’s financial situation was enough to issue such a definitive recommendation.
Chart. JSW share price
Source: TradingView.
See also: JSW shares go crazy! Coal prices hit the market after the China tragedy
Financial drip and restructuring for 850 million PLN
JSW’s problems started much earlier, as the company carries a heavy baggage of internal challenges. JSW is currently undergoing a deep restructuring. Behind the scenes, frantic work is underway to rescue the liquidity of the coal mining sector, as evidenced by the Tuesday meeting at the Ministry of Finance dedicated to JSW.
As the Deputy Minister of Energy Marian Zmarzły signaled on Wednesday, this is only the beginning, as another meeting is scheduled for next week to cover financing for the entire mining sector. JSW is desperately seeking stability and plans to take out a 850 million PLN loan from the Industrial Development Agency.
During the Tuesday meeting, emotions ran high – MP Michał Wójcik made it clear:
People want to know what will happen to their jobs. In the case of JSW Coke, it is unclear what the future holds (...) If JSW collapses, Silesia collapses.
See also: Inflation returns to play. Here’s what will rise the most
The great transformation to 2049 and financial support
The picture of the entire Polish mining sector now resembles a high‑stakes chess game, where the state must approach each move with appropriate care and focus. Polish Mining Group (PGG) and Southern Mining Concern (PKW) are supported by state subsidies to reduce production capacity. These result directly from the social agreement for mining and hard coal from May 2021.
These gigantic funds, transferred as cash grants and periodic capital increases, are meant to enable a controlled, gradual transformation of the sector, planned all the way to 2049. The current year, PGG and PKW started with subsidy parts, and subsequent tranches will be launched progressively over time.
So why do JSW shares plunge so hard? Investors fear that severance packages for miners could shake an already unstable financial situation. According to the latest information, laid‑off miners can expect a severance of 170,000 PLN. In the Jastrzębska company, 1,156 employees are eligible to participate in the severance program.
See also: KGHM Polska Miedź shares before the drop – analysts say. The GPW rally continues thanks to Trump
Source: Bankier.
