We still see the greatest value for shareholders in Ailleron's stake in Software Mind, for which negotiations on a sale have been paused, but a review of strategic options is still underway. We price the company at a 12‑month horizon at PLN 16.8 per share versus PLN 17.3 previously, giving a 4% growth potential. Therefore we downgrade the recommendation from ACCUMULATE to HOLD.
Weakening trajectory of results dynamics since 2Q25
Since 2Q25 we observe a progressive, quarterly erosion of revenue growth rate. Currently, based on 1Q sales (which represent on average 21% of the year), we can extrapolate annual revenues to about PLN 682 million versus about PLN 620 million forecasted by us (assuming the trend continues). Lower sales are accompanied by falling margins, a trend that has persisted since 3Q24 (with a break in 4Q25), largely due to increasing adoption of AI‑based tools. These technologies increase price pressure, shorten project cycles, and change the demand structure for software house services, while simultaneously raising client demands for time, quality, and project efficiency.
Forecast changes
In updating the valuation, we assume a slight reduction in expected revenues and a decline in margins, which translates into a clearer deterioration of our operating earnings forecasts. EBITDA over the entire forecast horizon has been revised down by about 8%, suggesting a negative impact of operating leverage at a weaker sales level. As before, in our view, the net profit per share for dominant shareholders is shaping up – in this case we assume only about a 0.5% decline over the valuation horizon. This does not change the weaker medium‑ to long‑term outlook. Consequently we lower our overall expectations and prefer a more cautious approach to the asset.
Negotiations paused on the purchase of Software Mind
Tailwind Capital Partners IV decided to pause negotiations on the purchase of 100% of Software Mind shares due to unfavorable market conditions, even though the due diligence performed did not reveal significant risks that could block the transaction, and UOKiK had previously approved the takeover of SM by Tailwind. The company keeps the possibility of other scenarios open within the ongoing review of strategic options.
Risk factors
We consider the most important risks to be those related to the development of new technologies and the industry in which the Group operates, the associated competitive environment risks, and those related to the overall economic situation affecting order levels. More factors are presented on pages 11.
The value of Ailleron shares was estimated based on valuations using DCF (PLN 15.0) and comparable (PLN 15.1), which, weighted equally, gave a 12‑month target price of PLN 16.8.
