A costly slide and an unexpected hit to the balance sheet.
The recommendation by Anna Tobiasz from BDM Brokerage House clearly shows that Synthaverse is at a business crossroads. Results for 4Q’25 prove that medical product manufacturing is a highly volatile business. The entire group’s revenue fell by -40% year‑on‑year. Although analysts expected such a decline due to the extremely high base from the previous year, operational factors determined the negative assessment of the quarter.
The BGC segment survived thanks to solid sales of Onko BCG, which brought 10.3 million PLN (the second highest result in the drug’s history), but vaccine deliveries to the Ministry of Health expired after most orders were fulfilled in 3Q’25.
The real fire erupted on the SG&A side, which ballooned by +12.4% year‑on‑year. To make matters worse, Synthaverse received a hefty hit—a write‑down of 6.5 million PLN due to the insolvency of one of its trading partners.
This one‑off incident literally massacred the final results. Operationally the company recorded a loss of -7.8 million PLN, EBITDA fell to -4.6 million PLN, and net loss was -6.9 million PLN (vs. a 7.0 million PLN profit a year earlier). Without the write‑down, EBITDA would have been positive 1.9 million PLN, and net loss only -0.4 million PLN.
See also: Will CD Projekt’s competitor’s shares shoot up? The company will soon reveal details of its new game.
Western European eldorado? Competition cools enthusiasm.
Forecasts for 1Q’26 and subsequent periods show the company desperately trying to find balance. While revenues are expected to rise by 40.3% year‑on‑year in 2026, mainly thanks to Onko BCG expansion in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, and the stabilization of Distreptaz, the entry into mature Western European markets proved harder than expected.
Price pressure from competitors is brutal. Margins are melting, and the long‑term operating margin forecast for the BCG segment was sharply cut from 50% to 40.5%. To top it off, a looming cost‑overrun associated with completing major investments began to appear on the horizon.
Commissioning the new plant increased depreciation to 4.5 million PLN. The maintenance costs of the modern building will heavily weigh on operating results before production starts in 4Q’27. As a result, 1Q’26 is expected to deepen the loss to -2.8 million PLN.
See also: Will Żabka’s shares heat up the WSE? The Polish giant aims to become the “European 7‑Eleven.”
A cold shower and a sharp cut to the target price.
The biggest challenge for Synthverse is not the laboratories but mundane liquidity problems. The company violated financial covenants set with creditor ACP Credit. Although a temporary agreement was reached to freeze ratios until mid‑2026, time is running out. In the fourth quarter, the first debt installment of 2 million EUR is due. The total financial requirement for this year is currently about 30 million EUR.
This difficult situation has led to a new target price cut from 5.0 PLN to 2.6 PLN, meaning a market discount of over 15% relative to the current price of 2.91 PLN.
The analytical report was prepared by Anna Tobiasz from BDM Brokerage House on May 20, when the SVE share price was 3.7 PLN.
Chart. Synthaverse (SVE) share price.
Source: TradingView
See also: CD Projekt shares before the new ATH? The expert says when to expect DLC for The Witcher 3 and the release of The Witcher 4. “I remain cautious.”
Source: PAP Biznes
