The market can be as fickle and capricious as spring weather.
Weather and geopolitics, i.e. a short‑term tiebreaker
The first half of 2026 proved exceptionally favorable for Polish thermal coal. National power plants burned black gold at a high rate – in Q1 demand rose by 7.3% year‑on‑year, and in April it shot up by another 10.7% year‑on‑year. Where did this sudden awakening of a sector long written off for losses come from?
The answer is an unusually (un)happy confluence of anomalies. Mother Nature gave us the coldest January and February in 14 years. Green energy suffered a visible shortfall – in March wind‑generated electricity fell by 14.4% year‑on‑year, and in May by 15%.
Geopolitics added to the mix. The Middle East conflict struck the gas market, worsening the clean spark spread indicator (gas production fell by 10% in May). Power plants switched to coal, dramatically reducing this commodity’s reserves. By the end of Q1 2026 reserves fell by 23% to 8.3 million tonnes – the lowest since the end of 2022.
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Financial rollercoaster and forecast revision
These market anomalies forced experts to drastically remodel existing spreadsheets. In the latest update report, prepared specifically for the GPW Analytical Coverage Support Program, future financial forecasts for LW Bogdanka resemble an unpredictable free‑wheel ride.
Clearing inventories and discounting Polish coal prices to ARA ports gives hope for a more expensive commodity in 2027. Analyst BM Bank Pekao Tomasz Duda raised the projected 2027 price by 5% (+11% year‑on‑year). The 2027 EBITDA forecast rises by 28%, and earnings per share (EPS) by 88%.
Before you open the champagne and buy more shares, it’s worth looking at the broader perspective. Revenue forecasts for 2026 were lowered by 1%, and EBITDA by 14% due to poorer prices at the start of the year. The real drama however unfolds on the 2028 horizon. Despite a cosmetic revenue rebound of 1%, the company will still be heading towards negative EBIT and net loss.
Why do analysts remain so skeptical about Bogdanka shares, when coal is falling like fresh rolls? Because in macroeconomics, the real test of strategy is the final boss fight. For Bogdanka, this absolute adversary is technological transformation and gigantic, billion‑dollar investments in renewables and green gas.
See also: Coal again a “premium” commodity. For some grades you must pay over 3,000 PLN per tonne. What is the coal price?
Pekao recommendations – a cold shower for shareholders
Market valuation always discounts the future, and that future looks rather bleak. The latest report BM Bank Pekao dated June 11 2026 brings a clear verdict. Tomasz Duda maintained an uncompromising “Sell” recommendation for LW Bogdanka.
The target price for the shares was set at 18.92 PLN. Considering that on June 9 2026 the price was 22.05 PLN, this indicates a deep, even 14% potential drop. Short‑term fuel powered by weather and the Middle East crisis burned out faster than investors can secure their portfolios. Bogdanka faces a big move, but the southern direction seems most likely today.
On June 11 the LW Bogdanka share price rose by 0.71% and reached 21.25 PLN.
Chart. LW Bogdanka share price
Source: TradingView
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Source: BM Bank Pekao
