More than 325 tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf
The background is well known: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and that narrow waterway used to carry 120 to 140 ships a day before the conflict, today only a handful.
More than 325 tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, the world holds its breath, and Trump extends a cease‑fire, but the maritime blockade remains.
In such a market landscape it is hard to find footing, because the turning point is still absent. Yet markets this morning react to what is fragile and unofficial.
Bloomberg reported, citing the IRGC‑linked agency Tasnim, that Iran was to receive a signal that the U.S. is ready to loosen the blockade.
One sentence, one source, zero guarantees, yet it was enough for S&P 500 futures to jump 0.6%, gold to climb to about 4,769 USD, and silver to gain nearly 2.5%.
WTI drops over 1.6%, Brent near 1.4%
Oil fell, WTI lost over 1.6%, Brent near 1.4%, because the market prices not so much the war itself but its potential end. The closer to peace, the less geopolitical premium in the commodity price. Investors await the next Trump TACO, while the U.S. president seeks an exit from Iran’s initiative in further peace talks.
European index futures join this cautious improvement in sentiment, DAX futures gain almost 1%, Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.89%, though it is worth remembering that they closed at a loss just yesterday.
The market today moves on a thin line between hope for diplomacy and hard reality: further peace talks have no timetable, Vance’s visit to Pakistan is cancelled, and Iran publicly warns that the blockade is an act of war for it.
Every headline from Tehran can flip the markets by a few percent in either direction within minutes, and we have seen this repeatedly in recent days.
Tesla and Boeing to publish quarterly reports
All of this is compounded by a rich macro calendar and earnings season.
In the evening Tesla and Boeing will release quarterly reports; those two names alone give the market a reason for another move, regardless of what happens in the Persian Gulf.
In the morning Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane from the ECB will speak, and the United Kingdom will provide March inflation data.
At the moment markets still bet on the Strait of Hormuz opening, and every signal in that direction fuels gains.
But that hope is increasingly costly to maintain. JPMorgan raised its target for the S&P 500 to 7,600 points, yet the longer the closed maritime route blocks one‑fifth of global energy supplies, the harder it will be to justify further records solely on tech company results.
The Strait of Hormuz is today not just an oil problem, but rather a barometer of global sentiment.
