We expect a gradual rollout of tenders under the agreement and an increase in revenue from Frontex already visible in subsequent quarters (initially orders based on the framework agreement from June 2025), and achieving the target higher revenue level from this client in 2027.
Second, cash flow was strong in 4Q25, with net cash at the end of the quarter almost 12 mln PLN, i.e. 4 PLN per Fabrity share and about 17% of the group’s market cap.
Moreover, the earn‑out obligation for the Panda Group acquisition had no remaining payment at year‑end, meaning the company did not meet the earn‑out conditions and the purchase price of shares will not increase by 1.4 mln PLN (0.5 PLN per Fabrity share).
We do reduce our EBIT forecasts for 2026‑27 by 4‑5% due to slower expected revenue growth from private sector clients, but still anticipate sales growth to EU institutions, a positive impact from the PKP PLK agreement, which returns to the group of key clients after last year’s break, and cost savings.
Consequently we estimate net profit to rise to 6 mln PLN in 2026 and over 7 mln PLN in 2027.
#Valuation. Our DCF valuation remains unchanged at 30 PLN. At the same time, after discounting the international comparable group, the multiples valuation returns only 22 PLN (-17% versus the previous 26 PLN).
Against the backdrop of foreign companies, Fabrity stands out for its strong cash base, high dividend payout rate (we assume 2.2 PLN per share this year, while the dividend capacity based on retained earnings is currently over 8 PLN per share in the group) and the prospect of earnings growth based on already signed framework agreements.
