Senior Fed Officials Signal Rate Hike Pause as Key Economic Indicators Awaited

This week saw a flurry of remarks from senior Fed officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller on 5 September and NY Fed President John Williams on the 7th. Waller said recent economic news will allow the Fed to "proceed carefully" and that "there's nothing that is saying we need to do anything imminent anytime soon," suggesting the FOMC may skip a rate hike in September.

Senior Fed officials signal rate hike pause in September

However, he was less definitive about the need for further hikes, saying "we have to wait and see" if current trends such as slowing inflation continue. Governor Williams also hinted at a pause, saying that monetary policy was having the expected effects, but that it was "an open question" as to whether further rate hikes were needed. We see these remarks essentially as advance notice ahead of the blackout period before the FOMC which starts from this weekend.

This has worked to pause the rise in UST yields and dollar strength ahead of the weekend. However, the CPI for August, retail sales, and other economic indicators will be announced next week, and these will be key for the Fed's monetary policy decisions due to its data dependent stance.

We do not expect such data to change the trend of the foreign exchange market unless the results differ significantly from market forecasts given the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the following week, and the focus of the FOMC has shifted to whether the Fed will raise rates and the forecast of the rate cuts in 2024 which is expected to be shown in the dot plot.

Naturally, now that expectations of prolonged monetary tightening are emerging due to the improvement in the US economy and the recent rise in oil prices, if economic indicators exceed expectations, the dollar is likely to strengthen and this would overshadow risk to the downside.