UST yields

UK Autumn Budget: Fiscal Credibility, Gilt Risk Premiums, and the Role of Foreign Investors

The UK government's budget announcement will need to show fiscal discipline to satisfy gilt investors, and while our baseline sees enough credibility to nudge the risk premium in gilt yields lower, we are well aware of significant upside risks too. Foreign gilt investors are relatively important and could even gain in importance in the future

Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of Tariff Announcements

Ahead of the tariff announcements markets are trading cautiously. Asian stock markets are marginally higher whilst European futures are indicating a marginally softer opening. UST yields are up but have mainly been going sideways during Asian hours and the Eurex complex is essentially unchanged from last night.

USD: Stagflation blues as Powell soothes markets, but USD sell-off may slow

The Fed left its dot plot unchanged and revised down its growth forecasts while revising up its inflation forecasts. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he still saw room for rate cuts given that the effect of tariffs on inflation will be transitory. He also said the probability of recession was not high. 

Markets React to US Strikes, China Stimulus Hopes, and UK Welfare Reform Plans

• Overnight news: UST Secretary Bessent said “not worried about the markets”; US strikes Houthis; Chinese economic data beats; China to announce steps to revive spending; US President Trump to speak to Russia President Putin Tuesday 

• Data and events: US retail sales 

• UK Economic: Welfare spending in the crosshairs ahead of Spring Statement 

Uncertainty Overdrive: Chaos, Policy Shifts, and Market Fallout

Despite all the noise around DOGE actions, spending cuts, and tariffs, we don’t think there has been anything these last few weeks that has definitively proven that the actual delivery of tariffs or spending cuts are going to be worse than expected.