Sales under pressure
Let’s start with the macro calendar, which (to put it mildly) isn’t particularly packed today, but an important reading from our backyard has emerged. It concerns retail sales in Poland. After an extremely strong March (+9.8% YoY) came a much weaker April with a result of +2.8% YoY, which was also worse than forecasts.
At the same time, it is the weakest result since June last year, and the fixed‑price sales indicator performed even worse, showing only +1.3% YoY (weakest since March 2025). The mood isn’t improved by a deeper look into the report, because the bulk of the result is largely due to entities in the category of trading solid, liquid, and gas fuels, which recorded a fixed‑price sales increase of up to 25.6% YoY.
So the previous month was largely saved by purchases of rapidly price‑hiking fuels. GUS does point to calendar aspects, mainly a different Easter holiday timing compared to 2025, but it’s hard not to feel that this isn’t the most important factor. Nevertheless, given the verdicts on the condition of the Polish consumer, it’s worth waiting for data from the coming months.
Which talks are more important?
Last Monday in May, investors chose optimism. Fuel for positive sentiment once again came from Middle East reports about a possible agreement between Iran and the USA. President Trump can, of course, deny his words with a single post, but with a certain degree of probability we can at least say there is no escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf.
The mood was not ruined by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, who stated that no one can say the agreement has been reached. For markets, real actions should be more important than words.
And the truth is that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer completely blocked. It may be a sign of increasingly advanced talks between Oman and Iran on setting new shipping conditions in this key location.
. On Sunday, through this narrow transport choke point, more than 30 vessels, including an Iraqi crude supertanker, were expected to pass. The oil market reacts most strongly to de‑escalation signals. Main benchmarks fell a few percent today; the July Brent contract now costs just under 98 USD, the lowest in over a month.
Monday optimism
Positive sentiment spreads more boldly across markets. Green dominates the trading floors, with main European indices gaining even over 1.5%.
The impulse from base markets works well on Warsaw listings, where the WIG20 gains nearly 2% by noon and stays above the psychologically important 3700 points, aiming for a record bull run.
The second and third lines of companies look a bit worse, but they are still more than decent gains (mWIG40 +1.2%, sWIG80 +0.6%).
Optimism is also clearly visible in the debt market, where yields clearly decline, somewhat neutralizing the increasingly tense situation in recent days. Polish 10‑year bonds fall to 5.76% today (lowest since mid‑May). The currency market shows the greatest restraint.
The dollar has weakened, but these moves cannot mark the start of a new trend.
The EUR/USD rate accelerated today to 1.164 USD, translating to a USD/PLN rate below 3.64 PLN.
The euro rate slightly declines and slowly approaches 4.23 PLN. The franc rate stays around 4.65 PLN, and the pound rate is close to 4.90 PLN. Remember that today’s trading occurs with significantly lower liquidity than usual, due to the holiday in many countries (including the USA and the UK).
Tuesday may bring us a completely new spread.
