Forecast: EURPLN and USDPLN near 3‑month highs
In the coming days FX volatility may rise due to numerous macro data, especially preliminary inflation readings from Germany, France, Italy and Poland, and later US labor market data. The asymmetric risk of maintaining dollar strength remains visible, which could keep EURPLN and USDPLN near 3‑month highs. In the long‑term bond market, SPW yields rose above base markets, likely as part of profit taking.
Lower inflation expectations in the euro zone and possible de‑escalation in the Middle East create a favorable backdrop for Polish bonds, with potential testing of 4.10% on 2‑year notes and 5.30% on 10‑year notes.
Inflation rises again
Today in Poland the focus will be on preliminary CPI inflation data for June. We estimate it will drop to 2.6% YoY from 3.1% YoY in May, thanks to favorable food price development and lower fuel prices than in May (due to oil price corrections on global markets despite higher fuel excise). The inflation decline will be temporary – assuming a return to the standard VAT rate on fuels, inflation will rise again and by year‑end approach 4.0% YoY.
In Europe the most interesting will be preliminary inflation data for Germany in June – CPI inflation is expected to remain at 2.6% YoY, and HICP inflation to fall to 2.5% YoY. In the Czech Republic another GDP dynamic reading for Q1 2026 will be published (preliminary: 2.2% YoY).
In the US we will focus on the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June (expected improvement in sentiment) and the JOLTS report for May, which may show a clear drop in the number of open positions.
Central bankers will also speak: P. Lane (chief economist EBC), I. Schnabel (EBC board member) and F. Elderson (EBC board member).
EUR: The ESI business sentiment index rose in June to 95.0 points from 93.7 points in May, exceeding market expectations of an increase to 94.3 points. Business sentiment improved in almost all sectors – industry by 0.2 points m/m, services by 0.6 points m/m, and trade by 1.2 points m/m. Construction sentiment fell by 0.6 points m/m.
EUR: Consumer sentiment in June improved, with the sentiment index rising to −17.7 points from −19.0 points in May, confirming preliminary data. Despite the improvement for the second month in a row, the index remains below pre‑war levels. Inflation expectations for the next year improved strongly (−6.4 points m/m), though they remain above early‑year levels, just before the US and Israel attacks on Iran.
EUR: Money supply M3 in May rose 3.2% YoY after a 2.7% YoY increase in April, and the reading exceeded expectations (cons.: 2.7% YoY). Most of the M3 growth (+€637 bn YoY) is due to M1 money supply (+€557 bn YoY), which increased 4.0% YoY, mainly due to higher deposits. Among money‑creation factors, household loans grew 3.1% YoY, and non‑financial corporate loans rose 4.0% YoY.
EUR: EBC President Ch. Lagarde said that after years of operating under extraordinary shock conditions, monetary policy is returning to fundamentals, where the main tool is interest rates and decisions are made session by session. Lagarde again said that the June rate hike was not precautionary, but based on inflation forecasts that indicated that without the hike HICP inflation would not return to target in 2027 and 2028.
CHN: The official manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.3 points from 50.0 points in May (cons.: 50.1 points), while the non‑manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.2 points from 50.1 points a month earlier, with expectations of a drop to 49.9 points.
USA:The US Supreme Court, in a 5:4 vote, ruled that Federal Reserve Board member L. Cook can remain in office for now, while President D. Trump moves to remove her from office over unsubstantiated mortgage fraud allegations. The ruling reinforces the central bank’s independence from presidential pressure.
KOR:South Korean authorities announced three investment pillars covering AI and robotics infrastructure. The first pillar is an investment plan worth about 800 bn KRW (≈ 518 bn USD) in four new HBM memory factories, essential for AI development. The plan assumes Samsung and SK Hynix will each build two plants. Authorities argue that further reliance on a single production base in the Seoul metropolitan area hampers development due to local water and cheap electricity constraints. The second pillar of the strategy aims to create AI data centers with a total capacity of 8.4 GW by 2029, with costs around 550 bn KRW (356 bn USD). By 2035 this capacity should increase by an additional 10 GW, raising total infrastructure output to 18.4 GW – and total investments in this area will exceed 1 trillion KRW (648 bn USD). The third pillar is the construction of a robotics and parts cluster in Saemangeum on the west coast, already invested in by Hyundai Motor, which aims to challenge, among others, Chinese expansion in humanoid robotics.
USA/IRN:US President D. Trump announced on social media that Iran has requested a meeting to be held today in Doha.
