Orlen’s financial results published
Orlen recorded a PLN 8,079 million consolidated net profit attributable to the parent company’s shareholders in Q1 2026, compared to PLN 4,159 million in the previous year.
The operating profit was PLN 11,667 million, versus PLN 6,673 million a year earlier.
The EBITDA LIFO reached PLN 12,964 million, versus PLN 10,054 million a year earlier. EBITDA LIFO after eliminating updating provisions amounted to PLN 14,071 million, versus PLN 11,458 million a year earlier.
Consolidated sales revenue reached PLN 75,769 million, versus PLN 73,650 million a year earlier.
Andrzej Gwiżdż, a financial markets analyst at Port, in an interview with FXMAG, expected the company to pleasantly surprise with the latest report.
“Orlen’s Q1 results will be strong. The only question is how strong and whether they are sufficient to satisfy the market,” he said, adding that optimistic forecasts set a high bar.
The key support for the results was high refinery margins and price increases for oil and fuel products during the quarter. In January, Orlen’s model refinery margin was USD 8.8 per barrel, rising to USD 10.5 in February. March could have been pivotal, for which the company did not publish data in the standard monthly cycle.
It was quite controversial, as the market environment for refineries was exceptionally favorable at that time. One can assume that Orlen wanted to avoid provoking a debate about excess profits when fuel prices were a politically and socially very sensitive topic.
“It was in March that oil prices rose sharply after the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and concerns about supply security through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent, which in January and February hovered around USD 67‑71 per barrel, rose to about USD 100‑110 in March. For Orlen this meant a better environment both in the refinery segment and in the extraction segment,” added the expert.
Andrzej Gwiżdż also recalled how the current geopolitical landscape has impacted the company’s financial results.
“Higher oil and gas prices directly support the extraction segment, as the company earns more from its own production. Tension in the fuel market also improved the refinery margin environment, which is key for EBITDA LIFO. The inventory valuation effect must be treated separately. It supports the reported result, but in EBITDA LIFO its significance is limited by the construction of that indicator,” he explained.
“Support for the results will also come from the gas segment. A colder winter led to higher gas consumption by households, power plants and industry, so ORLEN should show solid sales volumes in this area. This was compounded by tension in the European gas market, related to concerns about LNG supplies after the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Gas should therefore be one of the positive elements of the report,” the expert forecasted.
One must also remember that the impact of the Middle East conflict on Q1 will be limited. The escalation only occurred at the end of February, so it had the strongest effect in March. A fuller effect of higher oil, fuel and gas prices should be visible only in Q2 results.
At the net profit level, the picture will be less clear. Orlen announced updating provisions with a total value of about PLN 1.145 billion, mainly in petrochemicals. This concerns the restructuring of the Olefin III project and the transition to the New Chemistry program. This is an accounting burden, not a cash one, so it will reduce the reported profit but will not hit liquidity or the group’s ability to generate cash.
“There is also regulatory risk. High fuel prices triggered political pressure, protective actions, price limits and a discussion about a tax on extraordinary profits. This may limit retail margins and mean the need to create reserves for future charges,” he said.
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Orlen shares react to financial results
Orlen’s share price on Thursday, May 28 rose by 1.69% to PLN 141.02.
As Andrzej Gwiżdż informed, Orlen’s financial results should be interpreted with “several caveats”.
“The market will mainly look at whether the result beats consensus and whether that is enough to sustain a high share price. Strong results are already expected, so simply delivering a good quarter may not be enough,” he added.
Chart. Orlen share price
Source: TradingView.
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Source: Orlen.
