Oil above $110 hits markets
Brent crude prices continue to hover around 110 USD, raising ongoing concerns about inflation dynamics in the coming months. Additionally, increasing pressure is building in the technology sector, where expectations remain inflated, and recent gains have slightly altered the outlook for valuation attractiveness versus potential earnings improvement, especially amid worries about interest rate hikes.
Adding to the tension, geopolitical factors and a debt market discount give the S&P 500 a third consecutive down session (-0.67%), with falling gains in Europe and Asia and a discount on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The WIG20 index fell over 1.5% yesterday, while stocks in the second and third tiers performed relatively better, suggesting that weaker blue‑chip performance is driven by foreign capital based on higher global risk aversion.
Nvidia results and NATO geopolitical dilemmas
Although today’s macro calendar will include several European inflation readings for April and the FOMC minutes will be released overseas, the day’s headline event will be Nvidia’s 1Q26 periodic report.
This will occur only after the U.S. session, so trading may be muted in anticipation of the company’s report. Nvidia’s earnings could determine whether the upward trend in tech stocks—especially those exposed to AI development—continues or reverses.
In the geopolitical context, potential news from a meeting between Chinese and Russian leaders, as well as expected expanded comments on NATO’s potential “unblocking” of the Strait of Hormuz if current restrictions on ship traffic persist into the holidays, will be crucial.
On one hand, such a move would support a scenario of lower energy commodity prices and consequently lower inflation dynamics across the economy. On the other, NATO’s entry into the region could trigger even greater escalation.
WIG20 and mWIG40
Bogdanka 1Q26 results: Bogdanka recorded a consolidated net loss of 22.1 million PLN and revenue of 702.6 million PLN in Q1 2026. The results align with estimates. EBITDA was 25.2 million PLN, while EBIT was negative at 24.8 million PLN. The report notes that lower domestic coal prices directly impacted the price of energy coal sold by LW Bogdanka. Additionally, the company saw a lower coal sales volume compared to the same period last year. Commercial coal production in Q1 2026 was 2.04 million tonnes, with sales of 2.08 million tonnes, versus 2.65 million tonnes and 2.24 million tonnes a year earlier.
Mirbud The board recommends allocating 22.02 million PLN from 2025 net profit for a dividend, amounting to 0.20 PLN gross per share. The remaining 116.46 million PLN of 2025 profit will be set aside for reserves.
Mirbud The most favorable offer: Mirbud’s 89.88 million PLN gross bid for the Prudnik bypass on national road 41 was selected as the best in the procurement by the General Directorate of National Roads and Motorways in Opole.
Modivo Estimated 1Q26 Modivo Platform results: EBITDA of 230 million PLN and adjusted EBITDA of 296 million PLN. PAP Business consensus forecasted 225.8 million PLN EBITDA. Operating profit is estimated at 22 million PLN versus 15.1 million PLN expected by the market. Group EBITDA was affected by worldbox (-49 million PLN) and PPO/PKO balance (-16 million PLN vs +56 million PLN last year). The report notes that worldbox results are closely tied to licensed brand participation, which increased sequentially over the quarter. In the first half of the quarter, worldbox was dominated by partner brand inventory from the former Kaes store portfolio, with a gross margin of 24%. In April 2026, licensed brand share in worldbox exceeded 40%, and gross margin reached about 55%, meeting expectations.
In May 2026, gross margin reached 57%. Group revenue grew 4% YoY to 2.436 billion PLN. Analysts expected 2.495 billion PLN. Offline dynamics were +19% and online -8%. LFL sales +1% YoY. According to the company, gross margin on sales rose 1.3 pp YoY to 51.8%, the highest in 10 years, mainly due to increasing licensed brand share across all labels. Margin improvement was driven by all main business lines (CCC, HalfPrice, Modivo.com). HalfPrice recorded a 35% YoY revenue increase to 600 million PLN. LFL sales rose 6%. Gross margin was nearly 1 pp higher at 51.6%. The group expects a positive impact from growing licensed brand share on HalfPrice’s gross margin in future quarters due to increasing own apparel production volume.
Modivo Modivo’s write‑down review during the annual report preparation, completed on 31 January 2026, verified key estimates, including non‑cash write‑downs and reserves affecting EBITDA in Q4 2025. The EBITDA figure, significantly deviating from earlier preliminary results, was impacted by an additional write‑down on impaired goods of 31.5 million PLN, a revised higher reserve for future use of gift cards issued 2023‑2025 of 30.8 million PLN, and an initial allowance for receivables (ECL) from MKI sp. z.o.o. and Worldbox sp. z o.o. estimated at fair value during preliminary allocation of purchase price of 24.2 million PLN. “The issuer obtained additional statistical information on consumer behavior indicating higher than initially assumed consumer return rates, leading to a reduction in the estimate of unused future benefit balance.”
Orlen, Unimot Work on the windfall tax. The government plans to adopt a bill in Q2 for a tax on extraordinary profits from the production and turnover of certain liquid fuels achieved in 2026. “Considering the above, taxpayers of the extraordinary profit tax will be entrepreneurs conducting, from 1 March 2026 to 31 December 2026, on Polish territory, independently or through another entity, activities in liquid fuel production or intra‑community import/purchase.” “The mechanism will compare current profitability with historically achieved results. Thus, the tax will cover only the portion of revenue exceeding the reference level, constituting an extraordinary profit unrelated to productivity growth or prior investments.” “The proposed structure guarantees that the new levy will be introduced without harming ordinary profitability or burdening profits from standard business development.”
Vercom 1Q26 Vercom results: EBITDA of 33.6 million PLN and net profit of 23.9 million PLN. PAP Business consensus forecasted 33.4 million PLN EBITDA and 23.5 million PLN net profit. In Q1 2025, Vercom achieved 22.5 million PLN net profit and 28.8 million PLN EBITDA. Revenue was 122.9 million PLN versus 110.8 million PLN a year earlier. Consensus forecasted 121.3 million PLN revenue. Operating profit was 30 million PLN versus a forecast of 29.2 million PLN EBIT. The number of paying Vercom customers in Q1 2026 rose 34% YoY to 131.2 thousand entities.
The board report notes that a significant acceleration in gross margin dynamics allowed part of the surplus to be allocated to faster customer acquisition and brand awareness building. It added that the NER ratio reached about 118%, indicating that customers stay longer with Vercom while increasing service usage scale. “The driving force behind these results is the growing adoption of AI‑based solutions, both on our side and our clients’ side. In the MailerLite service, we achieved a record number of new registrations, increasing 34% YoY. AI clearly supports this growth by shortening the path to full MailerLite capabilities.”
Vercom 2026 goals: “Positive trends visible in both Enterprise and SME segments, combined with deeper AI integration in our services and internal processes, create a strong foundation for achieving strategic objectives, including the ambitious goal of 165 million PLN EBITDA in 2026.”
SWIG80 and others
Agora Managerial option terms: Helios Agora concluded negotiations on changing managerial option terms and signed new option agreements. The agreements introduced, among other things, a fixed purchase price of 40.90 PLN for Helios shares held by managers under options.
Amica The board recommends a dividend of 2.5 PLN per share. The recommendation was approved by the supervisory board. The dividend will be funded from 2025 net profit of 11.3 million PLN plus 7.85 million PLN transferred from retained earnings of previous years.
Atrem The board recommends a dividend of 2.16 PLN per share from 2025 profit. Total dividend allocation is 19.94 million PLN, with the remainder of 2025 profit earmarked for reserves.
Dekpol New agreement: Dekpol Budownictwo, a subsidiary, signed a general contractor agreement for a logistics park comprising two warehouse‑industrial buildings with office‑social facilities and related internal and external infrastructure in the Pomeranian Voivodeship.
Ferro The board recommends allocating 50.1 million PLN from 2025 net profit for dividends, equating to 2.36 PLN per share. The remaining 3.3 thousand PLN of 2025 profit will be set aside for reserves.
Lokum Deweloper The board plans a total dividend of 18 million PLN from 2025 profit, amounting to 1 PLN per share. The proposed dividend date is 24 June, with payment on 29 June 2026.
Lumina Metals The prospectus was approved by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) in connection with the planned IPO. “Approval by the KNF is a crucial step. It allows Polish investors direct access to critical domestic resources essential for Europe and NATO’s energy, technology, and defense transformation, and aligns with Poland’s capital market development strategy.” In mid‑April 2026, Lumina Metals Corp., owner of the New Sól copper deposit, filed an updated prospectus for a public offering of shares and a Toronto (TSX) debut, with a planned dual listing on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
MLP Group 1Q26 results: 59.5 million PLN EBITDA, up 10% YoY, and 130.6 million PLN revenue, a 20% YoY increase. The company posted a net loss of 32.5 million PLN versus a 42.7 million PLN loss in Q1 2025. As of 31 March 2026, fair value of investment properties was 6.8567 million PLN, 4% higher than 31 December 2025. NAV rose 1% to 3.2334 million PLN. The company is building about 217 000 m², corresponding to potential rental income of 14.2 million EUR. The European industrial and logistics sector entered 2026 with clear signs of revival, supported by improved investment sentiment and financing conditions. “Sustained high demand for modern logistics space focuses mainly on major urban agglomerations and metropolitan regions, fully aligning with MLP Group’s strategy of developing projects in key urban locations across its main markets.”
Murapol 1Q26 results: 21.7 million PLN net profit versus 68.6 million PLN a year earlier. PAP Business consensus forecasted 13.2 million PLN profit. Operating profit was 22.2 million PLN versus 15.6 million PLN consensus and 85 million PLN a year earlier. The group recorded sales of 142.3 million PLN versus 330.6 million PLN a year earlier. Consensus forecasted 139.6 million PLN revenue. In the first three months of 2026, the group sold 953 units net to retail customers, including 735 units under development and pre‑sale agreements and 218 under paid reservation agreements (after cancellations). Most units in the development segment were sold in Łódź (128) and Gdańsk (104). In Q1 2026, the group handed over 256 units to retail customers. “We expect to hand over about 3,000 units to customers in 2026. Additionally, we continue to develop the institutional PRS rental segment, diversifying revenue sources. In subsequent quarters, we anticipate maintaining positive sales trends and further project execution, supported by a favorable market environment.”
Trakcja Estimated 1Q26 results: EBITDA of 4.86 million PLN and gross loss of 7.6 million PLN. Estimated sales revenue was 324.89 million PLN, with gross profit of 11.9 million PLN.
Trans Polonia The board comments that there are organic growth opportunities in intermodal transport and aims to diversify its portfolio, gaining a new segment—glass. The board is working on acquisitions and wants the company to resume regular dividend payments. “The biggest organic growth opportunities lie in the chemistry and intermodal transport segment. (…) Expanding the container fleet is the simplest way to grow the fleet.”
Unibep New agreement: Unihouse Bechtel Polska and Polish modular building manufacturer Unihouse signed a contract worth about 259 million PLN net to create accommodation for the first nuclear power plant in Poland in Pomerania. The goal is to provide social facilities at the construction site for 1,000 workers, about 10% of all future employees. “In Poland we will have about 12,000 employees, so this is also a huge logistical undertaking and in terms of human resources.”
