In this way the Polish market reflected the mood prevailing in the rest of the Old Continent, where key indices recorded declines in the 0.2–0.5% range. Investors were much more animated during the US session.
After last week’s discount in the technology sector, it’s time to "buy the dips". Consequently, the S&P 500 gained 1.17%, and the tech Nasdaq rose 2.25%.
The market is gradually preparing for the upcoming earnings season for Q2. According to FactSet forecasts, earnings per share for S&P 500 constituents in the previous quarter were expected to rise 23% YoY.
Recall that the Q1 dynamics ultimately turned out even higher, reaching 28% YoY.
However, it’s worth noting that such a significant surprise in growth scale (15 percentage points above forecasts) was accompanied by one‑off events among the Great Seven companies.
We do not assume that a similar scale of positive surprise is possible in this earnings season as well.
KOSPI (+3%) and Nikkei (+1.5%)
On the contrary – it’s closer to saying that on the wave of recent optimism in the AI segment, expectations were set very high. At the time of writing the Asian indices most exposed to AI are gaining. Among them, of course, stand out KOSPI (+3%) and Nikkei (+1.5%).
Losers of the first half‑year in the emerging markets basket, China and India, are doing noticeably worse – Hang Seng loses just over 1%, while Sensex hovers around the neutral level.
On the wave of a successful session on Wall Street, futures on the most important European indices suggest a positive opening. We also expect more positive accents today on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
It’s worth noting the rich macroeconomic calendar this week. This morning we will learn the preliminary reading of inflation in Poland for June.
The consensus forecast indicates that on the wave of discounted energy commodities, CPI inflation fell last month to 2.7% YoY. Additionally, we will learn today a series of inflation readings from Europe.
In the second part of the week, investors will focus on monthly data from the US labor market, which, due to a holiday in the US on Friday, will be published unusually on Thursday.
The importance of this event will be high – after the last appearance of K. Warsh, perceived by the market as "hawks", overly good data, like at the beginning of June, could lead to a discount in the equity market.
