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Giełdy: WIG20 stracił 1,60%, S&P 500 w dół o 0,67%, Nasdaq o 0,61%. Analiza i prognozy

After a very good opening of the week on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, a sell‑off returned – on Tuesday the WIG20 fell 1.60%, and the mWIG40 0.23%.

On the symbolic plus, only the sWIG80 ended the session, gaining 0.04%.

Concerns about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as rising bond yields worldwide, effectively fueled risk aversion among investors.

Giełdy: WIG20 stracił 1,60%, S&P 500 w dół o 0,67%, Nasdaq o 0,61%. Analiza i prognozy
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Table of contents

  1. S&P 500 fell 0.67%, and the tech Nasdaq 0.61%
    1. American rally hits Polish bonds
      1. Hang Seng down ~0.8%, KOSPI ~2%, Nikkei ~1.6%

        S&P 500 fell 0.67%, and the tech Nasdaq 0.61%

        Among the blue chips, the shares of KGHM were the most heavily discounted, overvalued by 5.63%. In addition, banking sector companies continued to perform poorly.

        Meanwhile, in the rest of the Old Continent, the market landscape looked somewhat better, although there were still indices closing below the line.

        Among them were the French CAC40 (-0.07%), Spanish IBEX (-0.48%) and Italian FTSE MIB (-0.65%).

        The session on Wall Street brought a third consecutive day of declines. At the close, the S&P 500 fell 0.67%, and the tech Nasdaq 0.61%.

        The biggest pain for investors remains the debt market, where participants are increasingly losing patience with the unresolved situation in the Middle East.

        American rally hits Polish bonds

        On Tuesday, the yield on U.S. 10‑year bonds continued its upward rally and surpassed 4.6%, reaching its highest level in over a year. This atmosphere also affected investors in the Polish debt market, where the 10‑year yield began testing the 6% level.

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        The forward rate market is quite ambitious about the future monetary policy in Poland. Currently, valuations assume four rate hikes over the year. In our base scenario, the RPP will adopt a “wait and see” approach this year.

        It is worth remembering that a reference rate of 3.75% implies fairly restrictive monetary conditions. However, assuming an alternative scenario in which the RPP decides on one or two interventionary rate hikes in the second half of the year, the current market bet on the start of a hike cycle should still be treated as an overreaction.

        We use the same term to refer to the current level of yields in the Polish debt market. At the time of writing, minor sentiment dominates the Asian exchanges.

        Hang Seng down ~0.8%, KOSPI ~2%, Nikkei ~1.6%

        Hang Seng down ~0.8%, KOSPI ~2%, Nikkei ~1.6%. President Donald Trump, in one of yesterday’s statements, announced that he has postponed the decision to resume attacks for two–three days, perhaps until the beginning of next week, to "give Iran the chance to reach an agreement".

        He also emphasized that he is conducting talks with U.S. allies in the Middle East. A lack of progress in negotiations over the next two days will undoubtedly increase investors’ nervousness before the weekend.


        FXMAG Team

        FXMAG Team

        FXMAG’s editorial team creates high-quality content on financial markets, investing, and the global economy. We provide timely analysis and clear insights to help our audience navigate complex market dynamics.


        Topics

        investing in the stock market

        S&P 500 index

        10-year Polish bonds

        KGHM sharesMiddle East conflict

        US bond yield

        Nasdaq declines

        interest rate hikeswarsaw stock exchange

        banking sector stock market

        Donald Trump statement

        debt market analysis

        geopolitical crisis stock market

        Nikkei Index

        WIG index

        stock market quotes

        RPP interest ratesasian stock marketsMWIG40 companySWIG80 company
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