The bill focuses on exchange registration, asset custody standards, client asset segregation, stablecoin oversight, and clarifying jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC.
The political context will likely play a key role in whether the United States becomes a leader in regulated digital asset infrastructure or remains fragmented within overlapping state and federal systems. If the bill’s work does not make significant progress before August, the likelihood of passage in 2026 could fall below 35%, as election-related issues become priorities. Delays would probably prolong uncertainty around licensing, custodial, and trading infrastructure.
If the bill’s work advances before August, compliant crypto trading activity in the United States could grow 3-5 times by the end of 2026 as institutional participation accelerates.
A clearer regulatory structure could accelerate the adoption of stablecoins beyond current market expectations. The stablecoin sector is currently worth about $320 billion. By the end of 2026, this market could reach $1 trillion if banks, payment service providers, and enterprises continue to implement stablecoins for managing funds, cross‑border settlements, and 24/7 payment infrastructure. Stablecoins are increasingly becoming the foundation of a financial system that extends beyond crypto trading alone.
If the legal frameworks for asset custody, investor rights, and settlements continue to evolve, blockchain assets could represent nearly 10% of globally regulated financial assets within the next decade. That translates to a potential value of $3.5 billion in the base case, with estimates reaching $10 billion if broader institutional adoption occurs. Tokenization is entering markets for treasury bills, private loans, real estate, and institutional securities management.
Gracy Chen, CEO Bitget
