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Smaller Purchases and Cheaper Credit on the Horizon? Demand Pressure in Poland Clearly Weakening

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According to preliminary estimates from GUS, Poland's gross domestic product grew 3.5% in real terms year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, compared to 4.1% in the last quarter of 2025 and 3.2% in the same period last year. After seasonal adjustment, GDP increased 0.6% from the previous quarter. Domestic demand rose 3.7% year‑on‑year, household consumption 3.3%, and gross fixed‑asset investment 2.4%. Net export contribution to GDP growth was neutral.

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Consumption in Poland Weakens, and the Path to High GDP Becomes Harder

Consumption in Poland Weakens, and the Path to High GDP Becomes Harder

The first quarter saw a slowdown after a strong finish to 2025. The main driver of growth remained domestic demand, but household consumption grew slower than in the previous quarter. A harsh winter limited activity, especially in construction, and the March rebound was insufficient to maintain the earlier growth pace.

Overall investment rose moderately, though a positive signal is the increase in investment spending by non‑financial firms surveyed. In subsequent quarters, additional support should come from projects financed with EU funds.

Prospects for consumption look weaker. Retail sales in April clearly slowed, wage dynamics are falling, and employment in the enterprise sector remains lower than a year earlier. The lower‑than‑expected May inflation reading also indicates that demand pressure in the economy is weakening.

The main source of risk remains the situation in the Middle East. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted, and the regional situation is very unstable. Energy prices raise firm costs, reduce real household incomes, and may worsen the contribution of foreign trade to GDP.

Poland’s economy still has solid fundamentals, but the path to maintaining high growth rates is becoming harder, said Andrzej Gwiżdż, analyst at the investment platform Port.

smaller purchases and cheaper credit on the horizon demand pressure in poland clearly weakening grafika numer 1 ✕

FXMAG Team

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