On the stock market, the decline in the number of clients forces companies to fight for consumers, while in the real estate market, this mechanism seems to work in the opposite way.
Bank algorithms versus demographics
Data from the Central Statistical Office show that since 2000 the Polish population has decreased by over 800 thousand people.
It’s as if the second largest city on the country’s map suddenly vanished, namely Kraków.
Read also: Real estate is no longer falling. In the month, 40 thousand sales agreements were canceled, apartments linger on the market for 60 days
In theory, demand should weaken, and financial institutions should facilitate apartment purchases. The reality, however, brutally verifies these assumptions.
The analysis of Credipass and Metrohouse shows a painful contradiction. On one hand we hear about a demographic catastrophe, on the other the banking system imposes financial sanctions on people who decide to have children.
Marta Żółkowska, Country Manager DH Group, points out that the appearance of a child generates immediate difficulties in the property purchase process.
Instead of a bonus for saving the demographics, families collide with a wall of criteria, forcing them to compromise on size or location.
A childless couple earning a monthly net income of 8,000 PLN currently has a maximum credit capacity of about 586,000 PLN.
However, if the first child appears in the analytical sheet, the automatic scoring system instantly reduces this amount to about 475,000 PLN.
That’s a sudden drop of 111,000 PLN!
In cities such as Katowice, Olsztyn, Kielce or Bydgoszcz, where the average price per square meter on the secondary market is 8,000-9,000 PLN, this difference corresponds to a loss of about 11-12 m² of property.
The birth of a child therefore means having to give up one room. Instead of space for the newborn, the algorithm squeezes young parents into a cramped situation.
Interestingly, a similar correction is noted for singles operating independently in the market. A single earning 6,500 PLN net has a chance for a loan of 547,000 PLN. When the same person single-handedly raises one child, the bank will only lend 500,000 PLN.
A loss of 47,000 PLN in large cities is often equivalent to a parking space in an underground garage. Having a child dramatically makes life harder not only for parents but also for single parents with children.
See also: The real estate market fracture. “The year 2026 looks good for buying an apartment”
Even high capital loses shares in market valuation
Does a higher level of capital protect against this phenomenon? While higher earnings mitigate the system’s blow, they do not completely stop the algorithm.
A childless couple earning 12,000 PLN net per month has a credit capacity of about 1,100,000 PLN.
One child reduces this capacity to 963,000 PLN, and in the case of two children, down to 911,000 PLN.
The banking sector does not entirely cut off financing absolutely and theoretically tries to account for natural life changes among its clients.
As Tomasz Przyrowski, CEO of Credipass, emphasizes, most banks fully accept income earned during maternity leave and medical leave before delivery.
Additionally, the 800-plus benefit is treated by scoring systems as a stable cash injection that raises financial capacity.
Unfortunately, combined with the fact that Poland still has some of the most expensive loans in the European Union, it is rather a bitter consolation.
More about this was written in the article: The credit nightmare in Poland. Installments are among the most expensive in the EU. We pay more than most of Europe
See also: Brutal real estate market data. Apartment sales suddenly fell by almost 20%
Sources: Credipass, Metrohouse.
