The global trading volume in predictive markets rose from about $16 billion in 2024 to over $60 billion in 2025, while monthly trading activity increased from about $1.2 billion at the start of 2025 to a peak of roughly $25 billion at the beginning of 2026. Elections, central bank meetings, geopolitical events and sports are increasingly becoming subjects of information trading, and users allocate capital directly based on outcomes rather than simply reacting after the fact.
Predictive markets represent a structural change in how markets process information. Traditional systems publish forecasts at set intervals, whereas predictive markets are updated continuously. Every new headline, macro‑economic event or policy change immediately affects probabilities and prices.
This is closely linked to a broader trend we observe across the industry. As digital asset markets expand to include tokenized assets, stablecoins, and the broader blockchain‑based financial systems, predictive markets become another element of blockchain‑powered infrastructure. These platforms increasingly reflect the evolution of financial markets toward 24/7, real‑time systems that respond to ongoing events and can continuously process signals related to liquidity, market sentiment, and valuation in global markets.
Ignacio Aguirre, CMO Bitget
