Is a bubble in the real estate market inevitable?
“Poland continues to build apartments as if the population were growing,” the report TabelaOfert states, highlighting demographic challenges in the Polish real estate market.
Data presented at the Tabelaofert TALKS conference indicate that between 2026–2030 developers could build over 1 million apartments, potentially providing homes for 2–2.5 million people.
The problem is that at the same time Poland’s population could shrink by more than 650 thousand people.
We call this disappearing demand for apartments. It does not mean the market ends. It means we need to start building smarter. The question is no longer just how many apartments will be built, but whether they will meet the real needs of society—said Robert Chojnacki, founder and vice‑president of Tabelaofert.pl.
The expert emphasized that the future of the market will increasingly be decided not only by prices, loans, and supply, but above all by population size, age structure, and real housing needs of Poles.
Poland is not entering a demographic crisis. Poland is already in it. For the housing market this means a fundamental shift in thinking.
For years we asked mainly how many apartments need to be built. Now the question will become increasingly important: for whom, where and at what standard we build them.
Demography, as noted in the TabelaOfert report, will change the balance of power in the housing market over the next 25 years.
Forecasts indicate that during this time Poland will see 2 to 4 million seniors added.
“At the same time about 4.4 million apartments are above ground level in buildings without elevators, meaning they do not meet the basic needs of an aging society,” it was reported.
“This area could become one of the most important development directions for the housing industry. It’s not just about building new units, but also about modernizing existing stock, renovating older buildings, and creating homes accessible to the elderly,” added.
According to Robert Chojnacki, in the coming decades this problem will take the form of one of the biggest challenges for the housing industry.
This is not just a social problem. In the twenty‑second global economy there should not be millions of apartments from which older people cannot freely exit because they live on the third or fourth floor without an elevator—he said.
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Changes, changes, and more changes. Migration in focus
The TabelaOfert report shows that in the coming years the Polish housing market will require a strategy beyond the simplified assumption that demand for apartments will continuously rise.
What will matter is what kind of apartments Poles will need.
Demography is key for a very simple reason: someone must live in apartments. If there are fewer people in the purchasing age and more elderly, the scale of demand will change, but also the type of apartments people will need—said Robert Chojnacki.
Experts highlighted that until now the effects of the demographic crisis were effectively limited by migration inflows.
The question is how the situation will look in the coming years.
“The influx of foreigners, especially Ukrainian citizens, in recent years offset the effects of population decline. Without this factor, sales offices would have felt the decline in demand much faster. Today the migration factor is weakening,” it was reported.
Read also: The bubble in the real estate market. Those looking for a home “should know this” - experts say
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