Let us recall that inflation rose to 3.2% YoY from 3.0% YoY in March, despite the stabilising effect of the "CPN" program. As we estimate, core inflation has indeed risen – to about 3.0% YoY from 2.7% YoY in March (and to 0.8% MoM). Although we do not yet know the details of the data, the surprise in core inflation increases concerns about the wider transmission of earlier fuel price hikes to other goods and services.
We do not expect major changes in the statement after the Wednesday RPP decision. The Thursday conference of NBP President A. Glapiński looks more interesting. His remarks will show whether the higher-than-expected April inflation reading significantly reduces the comfort of RPP members, who communicated keeping interest rates unchanged this year. That is also our baseline scenario. At the current stage it does not seem that any interest rate changes will occur before July, when RPP will review the new macroeconomic projection.
Also in the second half of the year, members of the Council, in our view, will seek to stabilise interest rates, although the key will remain the development of the situation in the Middle East and the shaping of energy commodity prices. A potential tightening of monetary policy could occur in the event of a significant rise in inflation expectations and the launch of an inflation‑wage spiral. The risk of this scenario is mitigated by the fact that firms signal a further decline in labour demand.
A stronger dollar may benefit from an improvement in ADP data
The Tuesday session on the U.S. exchange ended with index gains and further records. Optimism is driven in part by company results. U.S. Secretary of State M. Rubio said that the Epic Fury operation in Iran has ended and will be replaced by the defensive Operation Freedom. D. Trump announced a brief suspension to check the possibility of reaching an agreement with Iran.
The announcement of the end of offensive operations against Iran could potentially be related to the desire to avoid appealing to Congress for formal authorization of military actions, which requires 60 days of war. The Chinese PMI for services surprised positively by rising to 52.6 points, and the zloty opens slightly stronger, as does German debt.
A potential support for the zloty could be the information about signing the SAFE agreement. Published weak PMI data for European services could be offset by an acceleration of PPI inflation in the context of its impact on the European interest rate market.
Today a stronger dollar may benefit from an improvement in ADP data. The RPP decision will be important for the debt market, although larger moves may be generated by tomorrow’s comments from the NBP president and may allow estimating how likely rate hikes are this year, as priced by the market.
Events in Poland and worldwide
PL: According to PAP, the loan agreement under the SAFE program for Poland was the first to receive European Commission approval and is already ready for signing –. Signing the document is planned for Friday in Warsaw.
US: The ISM services index in the U.S. in April 2026 fell slightly to about 53.6 points from 54.0 points in March, remaining clearly above the 50‑point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The report structure was mixed: business activity rose, signalling solid current demand, but new orders weakened, and the employment sub‑index remained below 50 points. Overall, the data confirm a picture of growth stabilisation amid rising costs and firms’ cautious approach to hiring.
US: The number of vacancies in the United States was 6.87 million in March versus 6.92 million in February, slightly above market expectations. This data confirm that after a period of deteriorating conditions the U.S. labour market is stabilising. Similar conclusions should emerge from the Friday April report, covering non‑agricultural employment and the unemployment rate.
Markets supported by the zloty and falling oil
Yesterday’s session added sentiment to the domestic equity market. Indices rose about 0‑1% especially large stocks. This was accompanied by a strengthening of the zloty.
The EURPLN rate fell to about 4.247 from about 4.257. This went hand in hand with a slight weakening of the dollar against the euro, leading to a slightly larger scale of zloty strengthening against the dollar than against the euro.
In the domestic interest rate market, swap rates rose 6‑10 basis points with a slightly larger change for long‑term rates.
At the end of the day rates fell slightly from daily highs. A similar situation occurred in the debt market, with yields returning near the opening at the end of the day. The yield on 10‑year bonds was about 5.83% at the end of the day.
On European exchanges, most indices recorded gains except the London FTSE. U.S. index futures also rose. The focus remains on the Middle East situation. Sentiment was aided by a drop in oil prices to about $110 per barrel from about $114.
The EURUSD rate rose to about 1.171 from about 1.168. The stabilisation of the rate was influenced by a mixed set of U.S. data. U.S. trade balance data for March showed a slightly smaller deterioration to -$60.3 bn from -$57.8 bn than expected -$61 bn.
Meanwhile, U.S. PMI data turned out slightly lower than preliminary readings, but still showed solid growth. The U.S. services PMI rose in April to 51 points from 49.8 points versus a preliminary reading of about 51.3 points.
This translated into a rise in the U.S. composite PMI in April to 51.7 points from 50.3 points slightly below the preliminary reading of 52 points. Better than expected were real estate market data. New home sales in the U.S. in March were 682 k on an annual basis, versus expected 652 k and 587 k in the previous month.
On core debt markets, there were small changes. German short‑term debt slightly strengthened, while long‑term debt temporarily weakened. In the U.S. market, long‑term debt slightly gained. At the end of the day, the yield on German 10‑year bonds was about 3.08%. In the U.S. market, yields rose for most of the session and ended at about 4.41%.
