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Core Inflation
Articles related to Core Inflation
Inflation Drops Sharply, but Stability Remains Elusive
Inflation in Hungary decreased in November, but this was mainly due to base effects and government measures. We might be starting on the downward part of the rollercoaster right now – but that means the ride may be set to shoot upwards next
Poland’s Strong Consumption and Investment Point to Robust Growth with Mild Inflation Outlook
Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
Polish Investment Rebounds as Wage Growth Slows; Rate Cut Expected in December
Buoyant economic growth and signs of recovering investment are paired with slowing wage dynamics, easing upside risks to the current disinflation trend. With CPI inflation approaching the National Bank of Poland's target, the central bank may continue with policy easing. We expect another 25bp rate cut in December
Japan’s Inflation Accelerates as Exports and PMI Point to Emerging Recovery
Japanese data shows inflationary pressures are firm and that exports remain resilient despite tariffs. An upbeat flash purchasing manager’s index suggests the economy is on the recovery path. While these outcomes favour a Bank of Japan rate hike in December, government pressure to keep policy loose might delay a move until next year
Polish Inflation Eases in October; NBP Has Room for Further Rate Cuts
October inflation was confirmed at 2.8%YoY while core inflation likely moderated to 2.9%YoY from 3.2%YoY in September, driven by softer services prices as businesses face demand constraints. Disinflation is now reaching the services sector, which is a positive sign for monetary policy and gives room for more rate cuts in the coming quarters
Romania’s Inflation Holds Steady in October; NBR Rate Cuts Expected in 2026
Romanian Inflation eased marginally in October to 9.8% versus September’s 9.9%. Declines in some food prices provided relief, but services inflation remains tricky. Wage growth slowed to just 4.1% in September, acting as a clear drag on demand. We maintain our year-end inflation forecasts at 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026
EUR Gains on Softer Dollar; GBP Faces Political and Fiscal Risks, HUF Weighs on Deficit Concerns
EUR/USD has held onto its gains this week – though that largely looks a function of the slightly softer dollar. Yesterday's release of the German ZEW expectations index for November was not particularly encouraging. However, the aggregate ZEW figure for the eurozone as a whole ticked up, questioning whether Germany is increasingly becoming an outlier.
Hungary’s Inflation Stagnates for the Fourth Consecutive Month Despite Persistent Price Pressures
Inflation in Hungary showed signs of stagnation in October, yet this is still not a success story. With price pressures still above the central bank’s target, it is highly unlikely that we will see any interest rate cuts until autumn next year
NBP Poised to Continue Easing as Inflation Nears Target
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has repeatedly warned of upside risks to inflation over the medium term, but this has not prevented the central bank from cutting rates as inflation moderates. Rate-setters have cut rates at each policy meeting since July, and we expect another 25bp cut on 5 November
Italian Inflation Cools Sharply in October Amid Energy and Food Slowdown
Italy's October inflation numbers show a marked deceleration. This is very much an energy and fresh food story, against stable core inflation. As we don’t expect an imminent change to the pattern, we're trimming our forecast for average 2025 headline inflation to 1.6%
Poland’s Inflation Eases to 2.8%, Paving the Way for Another NBP Rate Cut
CPI inflation moderated below both our expectations and those of the market in October, thanks to a lower core rate, making yet another 25bp rate cut in November highly probable. Our baseline scenario had assumed a pause in monetary easing, but given Poland's ongoing disinflationary trend, we're bracing for another 25bp rate cut next week
Eurozone Inflation Holds Near Target as ECB Stays in Its ‘Good Place
Energy price developments have resulted in a tick down in headline inflation, while core inflation remains at 2.4%. Overall, the inflation environment seems to remain very stable around the ECB's target for the moment
Czech Inflation Driven by Robust Rents and Services Amid External Growth Risks
Czech headline inflation eased in September due to subdued food prices. Yet annual price growth in services and rising rents continue to pose a risk of entrenching inflation expectations given the economic upswing. That said, worrying news from the main eurozone trading partners threatens to dampen the growth outlook
Hungary’s Inflation Stuck Above Target Despite Currency Strength and Government Measures
Hungary's September inflation numbers came in flat as expected, but we don't take long-term comfort in that. Price pressures are still far from the central bank’s target. Looking ahead, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. A warning, though: it could be a train
Czech Republic: Softer Inflation Driven by Food Prices, but Services Keep Pressure High
Unprocessed food was mainly responsible for Czech headline inflation ticking lower. Meanwhile, pricing in services remains robust, and may affect inflation expectations. One softer-than-expected inflation print is unlikely to alter the central bank's hawkish stance. We'd need to see more relaxed core inflation and disinflation in services first
Eurozone Inflation: Stable Core Amid Temporary Energy Spike
The pickup in inflation to 2.2% in September was mainly due to energy effects, which will fade in the months ahead. A small undershooting of the inflation target actually seems realistic around the turn of the year. Expect the ECB to hold rates steady for now
Netherlands Inflation Surges in September: Core and Service Prices Drive Higher
Headline inflation in the Netherlands surged well above expectations in September. Although a swift return to a more normal pace wasn’t anticipated, today’s data illustrates just how persistent price pressures can be
Germany Inflation Rises to 2.4%, But Deflation Risks Loom
Headline inflation has increased to its highest level since the spring, but other German macro data published today suggests that inflation will not be the economy's biggest problem in the months ahead
Italy’s Inflation Stable at 1.6% in September Amid Stagnant Economy
With all driving factors set to remain in place, we expect inflation in Italy to continue to move within a narrow sub-2% band over the fourth quarter and confirm our forecast for average 2025 inflation at 1.7%
Poland CPI Stable in September, NBP Maintains Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts
We expected CPI inflation to increase slightly in September from August amid a shallower annual decline in fuel prices – but low food prices surprisingly kept the headline figure unchanged, bolstering the argument for more rate cuts. Even so, we expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to postpone the move until November
Riksbank Likely on Hold as Inflation Surprises, SEK Outlook Stays Firm
We expect the Riksbank to keep rates on hold at 2.0% on 23 September, in line with expectations. Markets are pricing in a less than one-in-three chance of a cut. Rate projections may well be kept unchanged but could still suggest some possibility of another cut. Our call for now is for no more easing. Sweden's krona has room to appreciate into year-end
Poland: Inflation Near Target, MPC Poised for Further Rate Cuts
The Polish Statistical Office has revised August’s year-on-year CPI inflation upward to 2.9%, from the initial flash estimate of 2.8%. However, we estimate that core inflation eased to 3.1% YoY, maintaining its downward trajectory. We expect policymakers to deliver one more 25bp rate cut this year, in November
Eurozone Inflation Near Target, ECB Balances Between Stability and Dovish Pressure
Inflation in the eurozone ticked up from 2% to 2.1% in August on the back of slowing energy price declines. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.3%, confirming a rather stable inflation climate despite ample risks to the outlook
German Inflation Ticks Higher, Weakening the ECB’s Case for a September Cut
An uptick in German inflation suggests that the risk of significant inflation undershooting is still more than overdone. At the same time, the increase weakens the case for an ECB rate cut at the September meeting
Poland’s Inflation Surprise Opens Door for September Rate Cut, but Fiscal Risks Loom
The decline in headline inflation to 2.8% YoY in August and further easing of core inflation would likely allow policymakers to cut rates by 25bp in September, but highly expansionary fiscal policy is expected to prompt a cautious approach ahead. Rate setters may pause in October and return to the rate cut discussion in November
Core Inflation Stable as Bank of Canada and Riksbank Signal Dovish Bias
A mild miss in last week’s July inflation figures provided a bit of support for the Canadian dollar, which posted weekly gains against most other G10 currencies.
Japan’s Core Inflation and the Rising Likelihood of a BoJ Rate Hike
Japan’s July consumer price inflation data was broadly in line with the market consensus. Headline inflation slowed thanks to falling energy and utility prices. Yet, core prices remain sticky and well above 3%. We believe core price trends will prompt the BoJ to hike rates as early as October
UK Inflation Shows Mixed Signals; November BoE Rate Cut Still Possible
UK inflation was higher than expected in July, but given it was driven primarily by airfares, the Bank of England won’t be too concerned. A November rate cut hangs in the balance, though it remains our base case
Polish Inflation Slows to 3.1% in July on Energy Price Drop, Paving Way for NBP Rate Cuts
Polish headline inflation has been confirmed at 3.1% YoY in July, from 4.1% YoY in June, as the effect of the partial unfreeze of energy prices in mid-2024 died out. With inflation within the tolerance band of the National Bank of Poland's target (2.5%, +/- 1ppt), the central bank now has room to continue its monetary easing cycle
Australian Wage Growth Holds Steady, US Core Inflation Surprises to the Upside
The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6551, up 0.33% on the day. The Aussie is trading at its highest levels since July 28, as the US dollar is showing signs of weakness against the major crurrencies.
Mixed Inflation Data and Durable Goods Orders Shape Market Outlook
The UK CPI was weaker than expected in February at 2.8%yr compared to 3.0%yr in January. Core inflation edged down from 3.7%yr to 3.5%yr, but services inflation held up at 5.0%yr. However, decrease in both was mainly driven by weaker core goods inflation, while services inflation, which the BoE officials follow closely, was unchanged at 5%yr.
Norges Bank Prepares for Hawkish Cut Amid Mixed Economic Signals
At its last meeting in January, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% but reiterated the guidance that “the policy rate will likely be reduced in March”. Since then, spot activity data remained subdued, but the labour market showed signs of resilience and business expectations turned more positive.
Rates Spark: Navigating US CPI Data and Foreign Appetite for USTs
Czech National Bank Poised for Aggressive Rate Cut: Unpacking Monetary Policy Dynamics, Market Reactions, and Economic Forecasts
Bearing Witness to Change: National Bank of Hungary Contemplates 100bp Interest Rate Cut Amidst Shifting Dynamics
BoC's Monetary Policy: Navigating Gradual Dovish Shift Amid Economic Indicators
Singapore Inflation Surges: MAS Expected to Maintain Policy Amidst Elevated Pressures
Norwegian Krone Strengthens on Rising Oil Prices and Inflation Data
GBP: Economic Resilience Amidst GDP Upsurge and BoE Hawkish Stance Facing Tests
Global Market Overview: Mixed Signals from China and Taiwan, Currency Moves Set Tone for the Week
Romanian Inflation Trends Downward: A Closer Look at 2023 and Future Outlook
This Week's Focus: US Jobs Report Signals Economic Uncertainty, Turkey Anticipates Annual Inflation at 65.1%
Japanese Economic Signals: Insights into BoJ Policy, GDP Contraction, and Future Rate Hike Expectations
Polish Central Bank Maintains Rates, Praises PLN Strength, and Awaits External Factors for Further Policy Decisions
Eurozone Inflation Drops to 2.4%, ECB Faces Divergence with Market Expectations
Trend of Improvement: Turkey's Underlying Inflation Holds at 61-62% for Third Consecutive Month
Japanese Core Inflation Edges Up to 2.9%, Adding Pressure on BoJ; US PMIs Awaited for Economic Insights
Upcoming Economic Data: Focus on US Manufacturing Index, Eurozone CPI, and GDP Reports in Hungary and Poland
Rates Spark: Feeble Pushback Amid Central Bank Messaging and German Budget Uncertainty
"Inflation Surges in October, Prompting Expectations of Prolonged Monetary Policy Pause by MAS into 2024
Surprising Surge: Singapore's October Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Headlining at 4.7%
Poland's Inflation Prospects Amid Sharp Commodity Price Drops: A Balancing Act for Monetary Policy
GBP: Soft Services Inflation Diminishes BoE December Hike Prospects
Inflation Fever Breaks: Fed Doves Energized as US CPI Falls, Markets React
Rates Spark: Evaluating the Likelihood of a Shift in the Rate Cycle
Taming Inflation: Supercore Progress Pleases the Fed, Setting the Stage for Policy Shift in 2024
US Inflation Slows Beyond Expectations: Analyzing October's CPI Figures
Hungarian Inflation Dips into Single Digits: A Symbolic Victory with Challenges Ahead
Czech Inflation Inches Up: Analyzing the Numbers and Future Rate Cut Prospects
Tightening Financial Conditions and Weakening Prices: US Inflation on Track for 2% Next Summer
The Czech National Bank's Prudent Approach: Unchanged Rates and Economic Evaluation
Bank of England Holds Rates Steady Amid Growing Rate Cut Expectations for 2024
EUR/USD Faces Volatility: Unsustainable Gains Amidst Economic Indicators and FOMC Influence
Impact of Energy Base Effects: Italian Inflation Plummets to 1.8% in October, Paving the Way for Potential Winter Rebound
Eurozone Economy Faces Minor Contraction Amid Plummeting Inflation: A Look at the Challenges and ECB's Dovish Debate
EUR/USD Stagnant Despite ECB Meeting and US GDP: Analyzing Market Perceptions
Day of Reckoning: Anticipating a Cutting Cycle as Czech National Bank Gears Up for November Meeting
Steady Employment Numbers in Poland Amidst Wage Growth Challenges
Inflation Resurgence in Australia: RBA's Rate Cycle Uncertainty
Oil Price Impact on Inflation Forecasts: A Closer Look
Tepid BoJ Stance Despite Inflation Surge: Future Policy Outlook
US Housing Market Faces Challenges Due to Soaring Mortgage Rates
Upcoming Central Bank Meetings and China's LPR Rates: Asia's Economic Outlook
Fed Likely to Pause with Potential for a Final Hike in Sight
ECB's 25bp Rate Hike Signals End to Hiking Cycle Amid Inflation and Growth Concerns
ECB Rate Decision: A Close Call for Christine Lagarde"
US Inflation Rises but Core Inflation Falls to Two-Year Low, All Eyes on ECB Rate Decision on Thursday
US CPI Data Indicates Hawkish Stance Remains, Dollar Strengthens
Asia Weakens as UST Yields and Oil Prices Rise; Focus on US Inflation Data
Market Risk Sentiment Adjusts as Investors Eye US Inflation Data
Market Focus: Economic Data and Central Banks' Policies
Recent Economic Developments and Upcoming Events in the UK, EU, Eurozone, and US
Risk Sentiment Shifts: Key Indicators and Impact on G10 Currencies
Inflation in Romania: Analyzing August's Higher-Than-Expected Numbers
Sticky US Inflation Expected to Maintain Dollar Strength Ahead of FOMC Meeting
The US Dollar Weakens as Chinese and Japanese Intervention Threats Rise, While US CPI and UK Jobs Data Await: A Preview
The AI Impact: Markets and the Inflation Surprise
The AI Impact: Markets and the Inflation Surprise - 12.09.2023
ECB Decision Dilemma: Examining the Hawkish Hike and Its Potential Impact on Rates and FX
Economic Highlights and Key Events for the Week Ahead: US Inflation, ECB Meeting, UK Labor Market, and More
Economic Highlights and Key Events for the Week Ahead: US Inflation, ECB Meeting, UK Labor Market, and More - 11.09.2023
Fed Expected to Hold Rates on September 20th, Dollar Softens as Treasury Yields Ease, Retail Sales Weaken, Mixed US Inflation Report
A Week Ahead: Market Insights and Key Events with Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank
Poland's Economic Snapshot: Declining CPI and Improving Current Account Balance
US ISM Services PMI Defies Global Trends, Boosting US Dollar Amid Mixed Economic Signals
Positive Shift in Inflation Structure: Core Inflation Falls in Hungary
Navigating the New Normal: Central Banks Grapple with Policy Dilemmas
A Surprisingly Aggressive Start to Poland's Easing Cycle Amidst Inflation Concerns
