Inflation remains today the biggest concern for Polish investors
It is no coincidence that the latest eToro Individual Investor Pulse survey shows that inflation remains today the biggest concern for Polish individual investors, indicated by 27% of respondents.
Even at the end of February 2026 one could have had a moderate hope that bank deposits had a good period ahead. The second half of last year brought a clear improvement in their results, because inflation clearly fell, and the interest rates on ending deposits remained relatively high.
Interest rates, although falling, remained above the level of inflation. Thanks to this, from July to February real results of ending yearly deposits were positive, although after paying the Belki tax profits remained modest. In December 2025 the real interest rate on deposits after taxation was 0.84%, in January 2026 it rose to 1.14%, and in February 1.01%.
Real interest rate on deposits at the end of 2025 was 0.14%
This improvement proved to be short‑lived. In March, due to the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East and inflation in Poland jumped to 3% from 2.1% a month earlier. That was enough to almost wipe out the real profit from ending deposits. The average interest rate on yearly deposits ending in March (started in April 2025 – NBP data) was 3.9%, which gave a real 0.85% before tax and only 0.14% after the Belki tax. In other words, savers found themselves one step away from a situation where a deposit no longer protects capital even against rising prices.
Since April this return is becoming a fact. Even if inflation in April remains unchanged at 3% and the average interest rate on ending yearly deposits (started in May 2025) is 3.5%, the real interest rate falls to 0.50% before tax and to minus 0.15% after taxation. This means that a person whose yearly deposit ends in April will nominally receive interest, but will actually incur a loss, because the purchasing power of the received capital with interest will be lower than a year earlier.
Moreover, this scenario is still a relatively mild variant. It assumes that inflation in April, after VAT and excise on fuels are lowered, will remain at 3%. If it turns out to be higher, the real losses of deposit holders could be greater.
It is also clearly visible how fragile the earlier rebound was. Positive real rates of return in the second half of 2025 did not result from banks starting to pay exceptionally generously for deposits. They were primarily the result of falling inflation.
Furthermore, profits earned from July 2025 to February 2026 did not even fully recover the losses incurred by savers in the first half of 2025. As soon as the price index rose again, the advantage of deposits quickly diminished. This shows that at the current level of interest rates deposits remain a very sensitive tool even to small changes in inflation.
For holders of savings the conclusion is quite simple. Deposits remain nominally safe, but increasingly fail to protect the real value of capital. March brought their profitability almost to zero, and April will again push it below the threshold. And it seems that after a short period of breathing, savers return to the well‑known situation where the bank pays interest, but inflation takes more.
Therefore it is no surprise that the latest eToro Individual Investor Pulse survey shows that inflation remains today the biggest concern for Polish individual investors. 27% of respondents consider it the most important threat to their investments, compared to 24% a quarter earlier. Thus inflation has surpassed the international conflict, which currently indicates 25% of respondents.
Real interest rate on ending yearly deposits from the beginning of 2025
|
|
Inflation CPI y/y
|
Bank deposit 1R*
|
Real interest rate on deposits without tax
|
Real interest rate on deposits after tax
|
|
Jan.25
|
4.9%
|
4.3%
|
-0.53%
|
-1.32%
|
|
Feb.25
|
4.9%
|
4.3%
|
-0.56%
|
-1.34%
|
|
Mar.25
|
4.9%
|
4.1%
|
-0.78%
|
-1.52%
|
|
Apr.25
|
4.3%
|
4.3%
|
-0.01%
|
-0.79%
|
|
May.25
|
4.0%
|
4.1%
|
0.06%
|
-0.68%
|
|
Jun.25
|
4.1%
|
4.3%
|
0.2%
|
-0.6%
|
|
Jul.25
|
3.1%
|
4.2%
|
1.0%
|
0.3%
|
|
Aug.25
|
2.9%
|
4.2%
|
1.2%
|
0.5%
|
|
Sep.25
|
2.9%
|
4.1%
|
1.1%
|
0.4%
|
|
Oct.25
|
2.8%
|
4.1%
|
1.2%
|
0.5%
|
|
Nov.25
|
2.5%
|
3.9%
|
1.4%
|
0.7%
|
|
Dec.25
|
2.4%
|
4.0%
|
1.58%
|
0.84%
|
|
Jan.26
|
2.1%
|
4.0%
|
1.89%
|
1.14%
|
|
Feb.26
|
2.1%
|
3.9%
|
1.72%
|
1.01%
|
|
Mar.26
|
3.0%
|
3.9%
|
0.85%
|
0.14%
|
|
Apr.26
|
3%**
|
3.5%
|
0.50%
|
-0.15%
|
Source: GUS, NBP, eToro calculations
