CAD: Anticipating a BoC Hike Today

CAD: We expect a BoC hike today

The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a hike in June, and our base case is that policymakers will follow up with another 25bp increase today. As discussed in our preview, the data flow since the June meeting has not pointed unequivocally in the direction of more tightening, but the latest jobs report continued to point to a tight jobs market and we see a higher chance that the BoC will favour two back-to-back hikes after a five-month pause.

The consensus has been split lately but has leaned more in favour of a hike in the past few days. Markets price in around 17bp ahead of today’s announcement. There is undoubtedly some upside potential for CAD today in our baseline scenario, especially because the BoC may see the advantage in attaching a dovish statement to a hike, so closing the door to further tightening if needed. USD/CAD could be eyeing the 1.3120 late-June lows, and we like the loonie even more against other procyclical currencies like the Australian dollar or the Swedish krona.