Domestic SPW yields and benchmark market bonds have come under upward pressure, and the zloty has weakened against the euro and the US dollar.
The dollar itself was gaining against the basket of major currencies, playing its traditional safe‑haven role.
Negative market reception was deepened by reports of the cancellation of peace talks in Pakistan scheduled for today.
We expect that the lack of progress in the geopolitically crucial area for markets, combined with negative implications for the oil market, will weigh on investor sentiment during the Wednesday session.
After yesterday’s marathon of domestic data, today’s calendar is much slimmer. We will learn the April economic outlook, which will show the impact of higher energy prices on Polish firms’ sentiment.
Additionally, the GUS will publish detailed fiscal data for 2025, which will explain what caused the general government deficit to rise to 7.2% of GDP by year‑end (it could be, for example, larger-than‑planned deliveries of military equipment).
The foreign calendar contains only April consumer sentiment data for the euro area – given the high uncertainty and rising fuel prices, their direction can only be one: an increase in pessimism is expected.
It is worth remembering that the reaction of European consumers to the war in the Middle East has so far been more muted than in the USA.
Trump extends ceasefire with Iran
US President D. Trump announced that he will extend the ending of the ceasefire with Iran until Iran submits a new proposal to end the war and to resume talks on the subject.
However, the US blockade of Iranian ports is to be maintained. D. Trump did not specify an exact date for the current ceasefire’s duration, though according to Axios reports it may last “from three to five days”.
Axios reporters claim that the break in talks was due to a lack of agreement between Iranian negotiators and the Iranian general staff, and the decision by Americans to give Iranians time to develop a unified negotiating position. Both sides also confirmed the cancellation of talks in Islamabad that were to take place this week.
Strong rebound in March production, wages rise slower in real terms
In March, production data surprised very positively. Industrial production rose 9.4% YoY after a 1.3% YoY increase in February and expectations of 4.2% YoY, and construction and assembly production rose 0.4% YoY after a 13.7% YoY decline in February and expectations of 0.8% YoY. The main reason for the revival is the easing after the end of frosts.
Available data for 1Q26 indicate a slowdown in economic growth to about 3.0% YoY, and March, better than expected, reduces the risk that the scale of the slowdown will be larger. More on this in Macro Flash: Spring in full swing in production.
The average wage in the enterprise sector in March rose 6.6% YoY compared to 6.1% YoY in February, slightly stronger than expected. In real terms, wages rose 3.5% YoY, the weakest since March 2025. Average employment in March fell by 9 thousand jobs, translating to a 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY decline compared to -0.8% YoY the month before.
Although wage dynamics have slightly accelerated, they still remain below the levels observed in 2021‑2025. We assume that by year‑end wage growth may slow slightly, but the annual growth will be about 6%. More in Macro Flash: Nominally solid wage growth, in real terms – losing strength.
PPI deflation remains – in March production prices fell 0.8% YoY after a 2.0% YoY decline in February (revision from -2.3% YoY). Over the month, price levels rose 1.0% MoM, of which petrochemicals rose 7.9% MoM. The result was lower than expected, also indicating a lack (so far) of a strong price reaction to the oil shock.
Increasing number of foreigners in ZUS, uncertainty around fuel policy and dispute over the spending rule
The number of foreigners insured in ZUS at the end of March was 1.305 million and was 9.4% higher than in the same period in 2025. Almost 67% of insured foreigners are Ukrainians, with ZUS registers indicating 873.23 thousand people in March. In recent months, the dynamics of the number of insured Ukrainians again exceed the growth rate of foreigners overall. The increase may include both new migration and changes in employment form (e.g., from the agricultural sector or the grey zone).
Finance Minister A. Domański indicated that there is a high probability of extending the CPN program to May, but the decision will depend on the development of the oil market and geopolitical factors. Under current regulations, the reduced VAT and excise on fuels will apply until the end of April.
The Ministry of Finance assessed that the negative position of the Fiscal Council regarding the amendment of the stabilising spending rule (particularly regarding the defence clause) is unjustified. According to the Fiscal Council, the changes would, unjustifiably, increase short‑term spending freedom at the expense of fiscal stability in the medium term.
