The sale process of Software Mind encountered difficulties due to a worsening investor sentiment towards the IT sector this year, further intensified in March by geopolitical tensions in Iran.
The strategic review is ongoing, and Ailleron will likely continue to seek a buyer for Software Mind; however, current valuations in the sector do not favor a transaction.
Sales among global companies comparable in the IT services area have led to a decline in our valuation based on comparable multiples from 20 PLN to 14 PLN.
Large global players, such as Globant, are currently trading at single‑digit earnings multiples for 2026. Without an improvement in sector sentiment, we see limited upside potential for Ailleron’s share price in the short term, especially since last year’s results may be viewed by investors as being driven by a focus on maximizing profitability in the context of a potential sale of key business.
Outlook for 2026
We expect the FinTech segment to reduce the operating loss from 4 million PLN to 2 million PLN, while revenue grows moderately.
In Software Mind we see a risk of margin pressure due to the persistent weakness of the USD.
We assume revenues will remain essentially stable, while EBIT in SM will fall by a high single‑digit amount to 58 million PLN. Under these assumptions, Ailleron will generate about 18 million PLN of adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders, implying a P/E ratio of roughly 11x.
