In addition, key macroeconomic data flowed in, and behind the scenes, the conflict in the Middle East continued to dominate the market. In the oil market, additional volatility was brought by the United Arab Emirates leaving the OPEC group.
Although April as a whole can be considered a clearly bullish month for most equity markets, its last week (a bit shorter due to the Friday holiday) proved to be corrective for the domestic GPW. The scale of declines in the main domestic indices was, however, slightly smaller than in the previous week.
Fuel industry dominated by Orlen
In sector terms, most key sub-indices fell – banks, energy and mining companies weakened. The undisputed leader of gains remains WIG-Paliwa – the fuel sector sub-index dominated by a single company, Orlen, with over 98% share.
This largest Polish company by market cap has maintained an upward trend since the beginning of 2025, and this year its shares have risen by more than 40%. Many reasons can be found for such dynamic growth – including a clear improvement in earnings (EPS growth), a favorable environment for margin improvement (weaker dollar, rising fuel prices), and an attractive dividend policy. Moreover, Orlen, as one of the most liquid domestic companies, becomes a natural candidate for foreign institutional investors’ portfolios looking for exposure to the Polish equity market.
Poland focused on RPP decision
This week, domestic investors will focus on the Monetary Policy Council, which will decide on interest rates on Wednesday. Market consensus expects rates to remain unchanged, so the more important event for any change in expectations about the future path of rates will be Adam Glapiński’s Thursday press conference. The NBP president will have the opportunity to comment on the latest surprising inflation reading for April (according to preliminary data, CPI dynamics were 3.2% versus expectations of 2.9%).
At the end of the week, S&P will review Poland’s rating – the market considers the risk of at least a downgrade (currently stable – S&P, the only major rating agency, did not downgrade it last year). Abroad, the most important macro releases will be those on the U.S. labor market – March JOLTS job openings (Tuesday) and ADP (Wednesday) and NFP (Friday) reports for April.
In the coming days, final PMI readings will also flow (today for the industrial sector, and Wednesday for services), and regional central banks will decide on interest rates (including the Swedish Riksbank and the Czech National Bank).
Results season: Budimex, Asbis, BNP Paribas
It will also be another week filled with quarterly reports.
On the GPW, results will be presented by including Budimex, Asbis, BNP Paribas and Bank Handlowy.
Outside, the most attention will be drawn by releases from including AMD, HSBC, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, Uber, Shell, McDonald’s and Rheinmetall.
Technical analysis on WIG
Last week, the WIG index continued its correction, reaching the first support in the form of the upper limit of consolidation at the beginning of the month. If buyers defend the area around 128.2k, they can think about a return to the April peak.
If however the 128.2k level breaks, the next stop for the price could be the medium‑term support line currently around 119k.
The mWIG40 index first broke its historical maximum at 9170, entering a new level, then buyers failed to hold it.
For about 2 weeks now, the index has been below this level, creating a risk for a developing correction that could ultimately signal a test of the trough separating these peaks, around 8150‑8250.
In the trough area there is also a support line initiated last summer, strengthening this area as support.
Market statistics
Sector snakes – description of the concept on the last pages of the report
MACD histogram for GPW sectors (vertical) and MACD of their relative strength to the WIG index (horizontal):
- snake moving up across the horizontal axis means the histogram changed sign from negative to positive
- snake moving down across the horizontal axis means the histogram changed sign from positive to negative
- snake moving right across the vertical axis means MACD changed sign from negative to positive
- snake moving left across the vertical axis means MACD changed sign from positive to negative
- detailed description of the snake concept is on the last page of the report
