The portfolio after February’26 was 737 million PLN (400 million PLN for 2026). Note that the portfolio should be understood as amounts to be invoiced, which does not necessarily equal future revenue.
Results for recent periods. In 2022-24 the company underwent a significant reorganization, yet managed to reach a recurring level of >500 million PLN in revenue and maintain very good margins. 2025 generally disappointed in terms of profitability (the company cited internal specifics of how profitability is calculated and lower-than-expected margins on several contracts acquired in a more competitive environment).
Forecast for 1Q’26. A high backlog level affects the number of tasks completed, but the company will also feel the winter’s impact. We assume 90 million PLN in revenue (comparable year‑over‑year), with a margin similar to 4Q’25 (lower year‑over‑year, 1Q’25 was relatively high). We estimate 3.3 million PLN EBIT (-43% y/y) and 2.4 million PLN net profit (-45% y/y). We expect an improvement in cash position versus 4Q’25 (conversion to cash from high net working capital at year‑end).
Medium‑term forecast. In 4Q’25 the company presented a strategy aiming for 1 billion PLN in revenue by 2030, EBITDA no lower than 88 million PLN, and net profit of 67 million PLN. The incentive program (a vote on the WZA resolution to issue shares for this purpose is still required) is expected to generate gross profit of 43 million PLN in ’26, 48 million PLN in ’27, and 53 million PLN in ’28. We assume the company will generate 620 million PLN in revenue (+7% y/y) and 35.0 million PLN in net profit in 2026.
We take a slightly more cautious approach to the 2026 assumptions (vs previous forecasts) considering the current backlog structure (a large portion is allocated to 2027+) and lengthy tender procedures. At the same time, the tender market should be “rich” in 2026 (the tender for the perimeter at the Ukraine border finally started, with significant expectations regarding energy storage). We allow for the possibility that margins in 2026 could improve – the 2025 base is depressed by a few weaker contracts. However, cost risk must be considered – the company’s contracts are exposed, for example, to copper prices – the company seeks to hedge them at the time of contract acquisition.
