In our assessment, the quarter's result will constitute a decisive majority of annual sales, because in 2026 we assume no orders from the National Health Fund.
Synthaverse Recommendation History
We forecast growth in Onko BCG sales volumes of about +30% YoY, but due to the high average price base from 1H’25, we estimate that the impact on sales will not be as significant.
Revenue from the sale of this drug is estimated at 8.1 million PLN (+4.7% YoY).
Traditional Segment
The main source of revenue in the traditional segment remains Distreptaza. We assume that sales volumes of this drug have returned to regular levels of around 200 thousand packages, at a slightly higher selling price.
This implies an increase in revenue from this source to 4.6 million PLN (+4.5% YoY). Due to the expected lower selling prices, we expect a decline in gross margin from sales from 60.9% in 1Q’25 to 59.6% in 1Q’26.
With the commissioning of the new plant, we estimate an increase in depreciation to 4.5 million PLN, compared to 3.5 million PLN in 1Q’25.
Operating and maintenance costs of the building will continue to negatively affect operating costs, which should be particularly visible in general management costs. This implies a deepening of the operating loss to -1.9 million PLN (vs. -0.2 million PLN a year earlier). At the EBITDA level we estimate a profit of 2.6 million PLN (-22.3% YoY), while at the net level a loss of -2.9 million PLN, compared to -0.5 million PLN in 1Q’25.
The company remains under pressure from high operating costs and still insufficient revenue levels. We assume that throughout 2026 sales will increase +40.3% YoY, mainly thanks to Onko BCG and Distreptaza.
In subsequent quarters we expect an improvement in Onko sales in Germany and France and the start of distribution in the Dutch market. We assume that the company will be able to limit losses, but it is difficult to generate profits before the new plant becomes operational.
We also note liquidity problems that became particularly visible at the end of 2025. The company is currently negotiating with financing institutions and agreeing on the terms of further debt servicing.
Forecast of results for Q1 2026
