Brokerage firm Noble Securities has taken a close look at Creepy Jar shares. The company’s problem is the declining interest in one of its flagship games.
The Creepy Jar game is losing gamer interest
"The trajectory of player numbers after the release of StarRupture is falling faster than we expected, prompting us to lower the expected sales volume of the game to 1.5 million copies in 2026," said Mateusz Chrzanowski, Noble Securities analyst and author of the document.
He notes that "despite raising the revenue forecast from the sale of Green Hell", he lowered the "current year EBITDA forecast by 24% to 62 million PLN, and the target share price over a 12‑month horizon from 802 PLN to 616 PLN".
It turns out that after the great launch of “Star Rupture” players cooled quickly. As a result, the chart showing the number of people on the Steam platform interested in the title did not maintain a growth trajectory.
In nominal terms, interest in the title after 120 days is at a "similar level to 'Green Hell' in a comparable period after the co‑op release".
"Therefore, we are talking more about normalization and adjustment to the player base in the long term than disappointment, although our assumptions in the period right after the release of 'Star Rupture' proved too optimistic", added the expert.
According to the Noble Securities analyst, "the sales distribution over time resembles our earlier assumptions more closely, so we adjusted the volume forecasts downward from 2.5/2/2 million copies in 2026/27/28 to 1.5/1.6/1.6 million copies."
At the same time, Chrzanowski praised the company’s sales strategy, which offered a 90‑percent discount when purchasing “Green Hell”, which "re‑ignited sales" of the game. As a result, in Q4 2025, they sold as many as 1.274 million copies (of which 1.19 million on PC at an average of the last 4 quarters of 384 thousand).
"The information that the threshold of 12 million total sales has been exceeded confirms that demand for the game remains. We estimate that in Q1 2026, about 1.8 million copies were sold. Consequently, we decided to extend the monetization period by a year and raise this year’s revenue forecast from the game by 5 million PLN", he notes.
Overall, however, "the reduction in expected sales of 'StarRupture' resulted in a decrease in the EBITDA forecast for 2026/27/28 by 24/15/16% respectively." As a result, the DCF valuation fell by 15%.
The expert estimates that sales of 'StarRupture' in Q1 of the current year reached just under 700 thousand copies, translating to about 22 million PLN in revenue.
Adding the still good sales of 'Green Hell' (8.5 million PLN), total revenue could reach just under 33 million PLN. Stable quarter‑on‑quarter costs should help generate about 30 million PLN EBITDA and 24.5 million PLN net profit.
"This result is below our initial assumptions (we estimated 36 million PLN in revenue, but with a larger share of SR), but sufficient to maintain a positive outlook for the company relative to the current market price," summarizes the brokerage analyst.
The brokerage firm recommends "holding" the company’s shares, whose price remains in a sideways trend.
At the same time, it is worth remembering that the entire Polish gaming sector could long‑term benefit from CD Projekt.
More on this was written in the article: "CD Projekt shares will stir the gaming market? Expert: 'Sector leaders can often pull smaller entities along'"
See also: CD Projekt shares before the breakthrough? GPW waits for Witcher 3 DLC. The expert points to potential dates.
Gaming company shares waiting for better times?
The price of Creepy Jar shares at the close of the Monday session on May 11 fell by 3% to 580 PLN.
Chart. Creepy Jar share price
Source: TradingView.
The price of CD Projekt shares at the end of the Monday session was at 260.7 PLN, down by 0.04%.
Chart. CD Projekt share price
Source: TradingView.
See also: CD Projekt shares surprise! "The company is facing the best quarter of the year"
Source: Noble Securities.
