The announcement of an indefinite suspension of arms in the Middle East on Wednesday made it easier for cryptocurrencies to launch a counterattack.
"Bitcoin did not pass the exam as a safe haven," says Prof. Piech
The situation in the cryptocurrency market is getting more complicated every day, although Bitcoin performed better than many other assets during the hottest phase of the United States–Iran war.
Read also: Bitcoin price before a spike or crash? Expert: "The cryptocurrency started reacting unusually." Here’s how ETH/USD is doing.
Professor Krzysztof Piech told FXMAG whether, in the event of a geopolitical escalation, the BTC/USD rate could surprise with further gains.
By and large, no. Bitcoin did not pass the exam as a safe haven.
In practice, when geopolitical uncertainty rises, capital usually drains from risky assets and seeks something more defensive: cash, U.S. Treasury bonds, sometimes yen, and gold.
In recent weeks this has been quite clear: when tensions around the U.S.–Iran conflict rose, Bitcoin fell along with risky assets, and when hopes for de-escalation appeared, it rebounded.
The expert emphasized that this is not the behavior of "digital gold," but of an "asset highly dependent on market sentiment."
Bitcoin has become 'a litmus paper' of international sentiment, especially on weekends when equity markets are closed.
The war has a strong impact on Bitcoin’s price, but it’s not just about the existence of armed actions; it’s about how they affect the economy.
The war primarily affects BTC through macroeconomics. This conflict drives up energy prices, increasing inflationary pressure, worsening growth prospects, and making it harder for central banks to quickly loosen monetary policy.
The IMF and the Bank of Japan warned that prolonged tensions in the Middle East could raise energy costs (which we already see), disrupt supply chains, and increase financial risks.
According to Prof. Piech, "for Bitcoin this is not a favorable environment for price growth."
"Higher energy costs could reduce the profitability of mining for some miners, lowering Bitcoin’s hash rate, which usually lowers its price (though the overall risk‑off mode matters more than mining cost alone)," he noted.
The only exception I allow is a situation of extreme trust crisis in the banking sector or payment system (see Cyprus in 2013). In such a scenario Bitcoin could gain as an asset outside the traditional system.
But that is not the baseline scenario for a normal war and normal tension rise. I would say the baseline is that the continuation of war is not an argument for BTC price increase, but rather a test, which Bitcoin still fails as a purported safe haven or digital gold.
See also: Bitcoin price fell 50% from ATH. Expert warns. "The real gamechanger" could change BTC/USD direction?
Has the bear ended? "I think rather the opposite"
There is another piece of the puzzle: cyclicality. Many people have gotten used to the idea that Bitcoin’s price moves similarly each cycle, with dips and new ATH bulls and bears drawing in predetermined moments. Does this scheme still hold? Has cyclicality been disrupted and will the rally start earlier – and the bear end earlier – perhaps it’s already over?
According to Prof. Krzysztof Piech, "cyclicality has not disappeared, but is clearly weakening".
I believe, that the 4‑year rhythm linked to halving exists, but its influence has been diluted by macroeconomic factors, ETFs, institutional inflows, and overall dollar liquidity.
In fact, even in market analyses today the thesis appears that the current post‑halving cycle is much weaker than previous ones, and the impact of halving itself is materially smaller than before.
"In Q1 2026 the total crypto market cap fell by 20.4% (the worst quarter for Bitcoin), and the current cycle no longer resembles the old, more volatile post‑halving phases," the expert recalled.
"Not to mention that this time there was no 'alt‑season' many were waiting for. Hot capital from large financial institutions, instead of dispersing across blockchain startup projects, this time went to AI firms," he added.
Professor cited a chart he published on November 21 last year, which he used to forecast cryptocurrency price moves.
According to the expert, his predictions may still hold.
On a logarithmic scale it’s clear that Bitcoin’s upward trend still exists, but the amplitude of subsequent cycles is decreasing. That is, in my view, the key: the market matures, so subsequent waves are relatively weaker, not stronger.
Mining also has less significance as an independent cycle driver, because block rewards are getting lower with each era, and the price increasingly reacts to global liquidity, interest rates, and broad market sentiment rather than purely endogenous factors as it used to.
Summarizing, he said he does not agree with the statement that "the bear is definitely over."
I think rather the opposite: the bear has not ended yet, and the toughest phase may just be coming.
My scenario of BTC dropping even near 40k USD in the summer is, of course, not a certainty, but a still possible pessimistic scenario, consistent with the thesis of decreasing amplitude and that the market still has room for a stronger correction.
"I do not claim that this must be the case, only that ignoring such a variant would be a mistake. It is too early, after all, looking at the dates of previous ATHs, LTHs, and halvings, for a return of growth," he concluded.
Source: material by Prof. Krzysztof Piech.
See also: Bitcoin price might crash to about 25k USD? Expert: "Bitcoin could dive even near 45k USD". What next for ETH?
Bitcoin price before the key battle
On Thursday, April 23, Bitcoin’s price was at 77,653 USD.
Chart. Bitcoin price (BTC/USD)
Source: Trading Economics
Ethereum’s price reached 2,326 USD.
Chart. Ethereum price (ETH/USD)
Source: Trading Economics
See also: U.S. war with Iran will crush Bitcoin price (BTC/USD, BTC/PLN)? Here’s what could happen to the cryptocurrency.
