Commodities

Analysis: Global Oil Markets Volatile Amid Middle East Geopolitical Tensions

Supply-side fears have spiked crude oil spot prices: short-term vs medium-term outlook.

France’s Social Security Budget Passes by Narrow Margin, Raising Fiscal Risks for 2026

France passed its social security budget, but the state budget remains unresolved, and the deficit outlook is worsening

Energy and Metals Update: Peace Talks Pressure Oil and Gas Markets, Copper Nears $11,000

Positive signals from both the US and Ukraine regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal continue to put pressure on energy markets. However, there’s little clarity on where Russia stands on the current plan

Ukraine Peace Deal Hopes Weigh on EUR Inflation Swaps as Real Rates Hit New Highs

Intuitively, a deal with Russia would help euro rates higher, but falling gas futures are already pushing down the curve through lower inflation expectations. Tensions with Russia are likely to stay, which means risk sentiment should remain fragile 

Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks

Oil prices rose yesterday, in step with a global equity rally. However, peace talks remain a crucial area of uncertainty for the market

Rising December Rate Cut Bets Drive Volatility in Silver and Bonds

• Fed rate cut expectations surge: Probability of a December 2025 rate cut jumped from 39% to nearly 70% in one day (CME FedWatch Tool)
• Silver market reacts: Increased volatility as traders respond to dovish Fed commentary
• Bond yields drop: 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields fall, steepening the curve and boosting appetite for risk assets, including precious metals

US Markets End Week Mixed Amid Fed Rate Speculation; Dollar Strength Shines

The week draws to a close on a positive note after a significant selloff in risk assets as US rate cut bets continued to decline from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.

Energy and Agriculture Markets React to Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks and Trade Developments

Oil prices are under renewed pressure amid ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine

Diesel Strength Leads Energy Markets as Metals Rally on Grasberg Restart Plans

Oil prices moved higher yesterday amid lingering supply risks, and a stronger diesel market lent additional support

Pricing in Czech manufacturing remains tepid

Tepid pricing in the industry and weakening price dynamics in agriculture are a downward risk for consumer prices. If consumer spending remains steady, inflation is likely to hover around the target over the upcoming year. A combination of factors might result in a low-inflation environment

Higher wages and lower inflation could mark a turning point for Hungary's economy

Wage growth was slightly higher than expected in September. This growth in purchasing power could overcome the Hungarian economy’s Achilles heel: a lack of confidence. In the coming months, inflation will fall and wages will grow strongly

Romania: NBR Maintains Dovish Bias Despite Higher Inflation Forecasts

At a calm press briefing, the National Bank of Romania unveiled its November Inflation Report, announcing upward revisions to its inflation trajectory. The overall message conveyed stability, indicating that the Bank remains on a steady course despite the higher projections

Dollar Eyes Soft US Data While EUR, GBP, and CZK React to Policy and Fiscal Developments

The drop in USD this week seems to be linked to expectations that US data will come in soft. But hearing Fed speakers, the move seems a bit premature, even if it looks like we could get September payrolls data soon. In the UK, the government is scrapping its income tax hike plans. GBP downside risks have suddenly increased

Germany Confronts Structural Economic Weakness as New Policy Measures Signal a Shift

Earlier this summer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised a 'Fall of reforms'. This week, the government moved to accelerate decision-making, unveiling a fresh set of policy announcements within just the past 24 hours

Asia Outlook: Central Banks Hold Steady as Growth Diverges Across the Region

Bank Indonesia and the People’s Bank of China are both expected to maintain current interest rate levels. Key releases include Japan's GDP, trade figures, and inflation, Taiwan's export orders and Singapore's GDP

USD Steady Ahead of Fed’s Williams Speech as Carry Trades Remain in Focus

The carry trade suffered a stress test yesterday, when one popular target currency, the Hungarian forint, had to cope with prospects of wider budget deficits. After selling off 0.7%, the forint is already coming back bid. With volatility expected to stay low, it's hard to see any major unwinds of carry strategies in the near term

Chuseok Holiday Distorts South Korea’s Labour Data as Job Market Weakens Slightly

South Korea’s jobless rate rose in October, but it remains below 3%. The Bank of Korea is expected to keep policy unchanged in November amid concerns about property risk and volatile foreign exchange markets

Philippines Q3 GDP Slows Sharply as Investment and Consumption Weaken

Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December

Energy Markets Weaken as Oil Inventories Rise; Record Fund Shorts in TTF Despite Winter Risks

Oil prices settled lower yesterday with a large increase in US crude oil inventories, while surplus expectations for the global oil market will also be providing some headwinds

USD Steady Amid Market Nervousness: ADP Data to Set the Tone

The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive

China Shock 2.0: Europe’s Growing Dependence and the New Wave of Industrial Competition

Increased Chinese competition within Europe and in third markets has been a trend that restarted with Covid, and may intensify now as a result of global trade tensions. While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries

NBP Poised to Continue Easing as Inflation Nears Target

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has repeatedly warned of upside risks to inflation over the medium term, but this has not prevented the central bank from cutting rates as inflation moderates. Rate-setters have cut rates at each policy meeting since July, and we expect another 25bp cut on 5 November 

US Treasuries Continue to Trade Heavily as Yields Edge Higher

US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge

Germany Remains a Nation of Renters as ‘Green Renoflation’ Redefines Housing Affordability

Affordability in the German real estate market remains strained. However, the recent surge in rents and a low homeownership ratio should still support the market

Oil Market Softens Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting as Sanction Risks Fade"

PEC+ is scheduled to meet this weekend, with the expectation that the group will agree on an output hike for December

Spain’s Growth Cools but Remains Resilient Amid Broader European Slowdown

Spain’s economy grew by 0.6% over the third quarter, following a robust second quarter, as external demand weakened. With signs of cooling in industrial activity and tourism, growth is expected to normalise over the coming quarters and into 2026

Power Play: How the Trump Administration Is Rewriting America’s Energy Future

To meet surging power demand, the US needs to leverage all sources of energy with a laser focus on efficiency, reliability and affordability, not least if it's going to win the AI race too

US Sanctions Shake Oil Markets: Rosneft and Lukoil in the Crosshairs

Oil prices are trading firmer this morning after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoila

Metals in Motion: Copper’s Momentum, Aluminium’s Constraints, Tariff Uncertainty and Gold’s Volatile Rally

LME Week, the biggest gathering of the metals industry, brought a cautiously upbeat tone to metals markets this year. While macro uncertainty, particularly around China-US trade negotiations, continues to cloud near-term demand, participants broadly see a turning point as physical tightness and supply disruptions come into focus

Market Rotation Hits Commodities: Precious Metals Slump, Oil Steadies on SPR Plans, Sugar Slides on Supply Outlook

Spot gold prices sold off aggressively yesterday as participants took profits in a market that has been extremely overbought

ront-End Stagnation and Long-End Shifts: Diverging Dynamics in Euro and US Yield Curves

The current risks are towards more ECB easing, but because medium-term risks are tilted to the upside, we think markets will remain firmly anchored around a 1.75% landing zone. In the US, the ultra front end has a tight feel to it, while longer tenor yields have a more loose tendency. We identify some technical factors driving this

EUR Seen at Fair Value as Market Focus Shifts to US Credit Risks

The eurozone calendar is empty until Friday’s PMI and EUR/USD moves will primarily depend on market sentiment about the US credit market. What is important to note is that EUR/USD is spot on its short-term fair value (1.167) despite the recent rally.

China’s 3Q25 GDP Beats Expectations Amid Weak Consumption and Property Slump

Chinese GDP slowed by less than expected in the third quarter amid the boost from external demand. With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency. But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed

Commodities Weekly: Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs While Oil and Gas Face Inventory Pressure

Gold and silver hit another record high this morning, topping the all-time peak set just yesterday

USD Reclaims Safe-Haven Status Amid Global Uncertainty; CEE Currencies Hold Steady

Markets are quite clearly rethinking popular short-USD trades, but further gains may prove harder to sustain unless markets start to price out Fed easing. With the US CPI report reportedly being published next week, we actually see a good chance an October cut will be greenlighted. Today, keep an eye on more French news and Canada’s jobs numbers

Oil Falls on Ceasefire Hopes and Rising US Inventories; Copper Climbs on Tight Supply; Cocoa Drops Amid Weak Demand

The oil market came under some pressure this morning after reports of a potential breakthrough on the Middle East peace deal. Higher oil inventory in the US further added to the pressure on oil prices

Gold Surges Past $4,000 as Safe-Haven Demand Soars; Oil and Agriculture Markets Await Key Data

Spot gold extended its rally to top $4,000/oz for the first time this morning, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown boost demand for safe havens  

Commodities Update: Oil Rises on OPEC’s Cautious Output Hike, Gold Hits Record High, Coffee Extends Rally

The oil market opened higher in the early trading session today following a modest output hike from OPEC+ for November 2025. Meanwhile, gold continued its rally to new record highs amid the prolonged US shutdown

Eurozone Inflation: Stable Core Amid Temporary Energy Spike

The pickup in inflation to 2.2% in September was mainly due to energy effects, which will fade in the months ahead. A small undershooting of the inflation target actually seems realistic around the turn of the year. Expect the ECB to hold rates steady for now

RBA Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns, AUD Outlook Remains Strong

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in line with expectations. The cautious stance reflects concern over rising headline CPI inflation. As it stands, we think the probability of a rate cut at the November meeting has meaningfully diminished. The Aussie dollar remains supported

Italian Confidence Indicators Signal Stabilisation but Recovery Remains Fragile

Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view

Markets Weigh Fed Outlook Ahead of Core PCE: Dollar Strength, Yield Rebound, and Gold Resilience

Uh oh — that US growth report yesterday was just a bit too strong for investors' liking. On the surface, strong GDP should be good news but the problem is, such strong growth doesn't support further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and it could even boost inflation expectations on top of potential tariff-led pressures. Understandably, October rate cut expectations took a hit after the GDP release.