The Commodities Feed: Oil rallies as Trump confirms new deadline for Russia. Oil prices extended their rally yesterday as President Trump confirmed that he will give Russia 10 days to reach a truce with Ukraine
Oil prices rallied after President Trump said he would shorten the deadline for Russia to come to a deal with Ukraine to end the war, raising supply concerns
US tariffs have had a serious adverse effect on overall South Korean exports, an examination of data indicates. Goods subject to sectoral tariffs showed notable declines. In addition, the heavy reliance on exports to both the US and China further complicates challenges for Korean exporters going forward
Japanese government efforts to moderate inflation are working, though underlying Tokyo price pressures remain elevated. Even so, the Bank of Japan is expected to stand pat next week. Its quarterly outlook report will be closely watched
Oil prices edged higher yesterday amid optimism over trade talks. This optimism is offsetting expectations of supply increases from Venezuela
Oil prices edged lower yesterday as tariff concerns linger with the 1 August deadline fast approaching
Oil prices showed little reaction to the EU’s latest sanction package against Russia. However, it could lead to further tightening in the European middle distillates market
This Sunday's Upper House elections in Japan are weighing on Japan's government bonds and the yen. Fears of political uncertainty, looser fiscal policy and also the effects of earlier BoJ policy normalisation have all contributed to JGB weakness. Here, we look at what's at stake and how markets might react
Oil prices edged lower yesterday, with a stronger US dollar providing headwinds for the market
External demand continues to support Chinese economic growth, as the first-half trade surplus surged to a new high of $586bn amid resilient export growth and a year-on-year contraction of imports. While tariffs continue to drag on exports to the US, June data showed a smaller contraction after the tariff de-escalation in May
The week starts with renewed pressure on oil prices as OPEC decided to ramp up its production restoration plans by announcing an additional 548,000 barrels per day—well above the 411,000-increase expected. Members also said they will do the same at their September meeting. Hence, the 2.2mbpd restriction that was put in place in 2023 will be fully restored a year earlier than initially planned.
FX markets are preparing for a noisy week on trade. Wednesday's expiry of the 90-day tariff deadlines will once again see some high tariff levels thrown around. This has the potential to upset the benign volatility conditions seen over the last two months, although the fallout should be nowhere near the levels seen in April. The dollar can probably stay soft
The just-released minutes of the European Central Bank's June meeting show that most ECB members were concerned about a possible inflation undershoot. Important to stress 'most', but certainly not all
South Korean inflation rises due to base effect, keeping BoK rates on hold next week. South Korean inflation rose in June, but remains within the Bank of Korea’s target range. We expect the BoK to leave rates unchanged until housing prices and increases in household debt stabilize
Eurozone PMI stagnates, with Middle East conflict adding to downside risk. The eurozone composite PMI came in at 50.2 in June – similar to May – indicating a stagnating economy after a robust first quarter. Concerns about escalation in the Middle East add a new downside risk to the growth outlook
Energy markets continue to monitor escalating Israel-Iran conflict, focusing on any signs that Iran may seek to disrupt crude flows across the Strait of Hormuz
Headlines were busy over the weekend as hostilities between Iran and Israel continued. An Iranian gas field in the Persian Gulf was hit on Saturday, fueling concerns that the escalation could spill over into global energy markets. While the damage appears limited to Iran's domestic supply, the targeted gas processing facilities are linked to offshore oil production sites, potentially threatening broader energy flows.
A further escalation in Iranian-Israeli tensions could take oil prices above $80 and would mean more upside for the dollar. The Federal Reserve was already likely to keep rates on hold through the third quarter and the latest developments only reinforce that.
Renewable natural gas is set to be in more demand in the coming years to help reduce emissions and diversify energy supply chains. Supported by policy and customer willingness to pay, the market is expected to nearly triple in Europe and more than double in the US by 2030. Despite this growth, challenges remain around policy streamlining and innovation
Markets are pricing in risks of tariffs with diverging movements across regions and asset classes.
Tariffs risks saw US and Asian equities retreat while European equities outperformed.
However, most G10 currencies outperformed the USD. Commodity- linked currencies like the CAD, AUD and NOK performed best.
• Gold prices rallied just shy of 10% in March, surpassing USD 3,100/oz to extend the year-to-date gains to 19% (after rising 27% in 2024).
• A surge in investment demand is behind the latest moves, with comments by US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as well as weak US consumer survey data, amplifying market fears as we approach the 2 April tariff announcements. The acceleration of ETF buying marks a sharp reversal from the outflows of this time last year.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 ended higher, while the dollar strengthened as cooler-than-expected inflation data calmed tariff concerns. Meanwhile, Treasury yields gained on potential inflationary impact of global trade war. Oil prices jumped on lower-than- expected oil and fuel inventories in the U.S. Safe-haven gold rose.
Calendar 2025 Henry Hub prices have rallied 38% year-to-date, taking Summer 2025 NYMEX gas above $4.70/mmBtu today (March 10th).
Arabica coffee prices fell for a third consecutive session yesterday, as persistent growth in certified stockpiles overcame supply concerns -- at least temporarily.
COMEX copper futures surged after President Donald Trump ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate possible import tariffs on copper.
The Commodities Feed: European gas sell-off continues. Oil prices are largely under pressure amid demand concerns, while the European gas market continues to sell off aggressively.
The Commodities Feed: Mineral deals and tariffs. Energy prices are under pressure amid demand concerns and improving prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. But tariff risks continue to hit metal markets
Unlike previous US trade memoranda, the proposed action to tackle China’s dominance in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding is different. It could lift port call fees or cause inefficiencies in supply lines, affecting US importers, exporters, and consumers.
The EU’s vision on Agriculture and Food is clearly farmer-centric. But what's in the document – and equally, what isn't – provides valuable guidance for food manufacturers, traders and retailers about the direction of EU policy towards 2040. With limited guidance on how to achieve emission cuts, the Commission remains open to a range of solutions
