Strong Increase in Global Grain Production in the 25/26 Season
Higher corn production will mainly be due to larger harvests in the USA (+14.3% - due to larger planted area and higher yields), Ukraine (+14.6%), Mexico (+11.3%) and Argentina (+4.0%).
Wheat production growth will mainly result from higher harvests in the EU (+17.9% - due to the low base effect from the previous year caused by unfavorable agrometeorological conditions in France) and in Argentina (+50.2% - record harvests), Russia (+9.7%) and Canada (+11.2%).
Barley harvests will be higher due to increased production in the EU (+11.4%), Australia (+23.1%) and Russia (+19.4%). According to the USDA forecast, global grain consumption in the 25/26 season will rise to 2,398.8 million tonnes compared to 2,333.3 million tonnes in the 24/25 season (+2.8%).
Consumption growth is forecast for wheat (+2.4%), corn (+3.0%), barley (+3.4%) and other grain varieties (+2.4%). The increase in grain consumption is driven by their increased availability and relatively low prices compared to historical levels. Higher grain use for biofuel production may also be supported by the recent strong rise in energy carrier prices linked to increased geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
The USDA expects global grain stocks in the 25/26 season to reach 600.7 million tonnes compared to 585.2 million tonnes in the 24/25 season (+2.8%), which will be the result of a stronger increase in grain production than consumption. Nevertheless, taking into account the relatively strong rise in global grain consumption, the stock/consumption ratio in the 25/26 season will not change compared to the previous season and will remain at 25.0%, staying at a relatively low level compared to recent years.
