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Summary:
According to a carefully regarded poll released on Monday, British manufacturing output dropped for a third consecutive month in September and orders decreased for a fourth straight month as a result of weakening international demand.
The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was marginally revised lower to 48.4 in September 2022 from an earlier estimate of 48.5, indicating a worsening in the sector's business conditions for a second consecutive month. Intermediate goods makers experienced the greatest production decrease, although the consumer and investment goods industries also experienced notable rates of contraction. The volume of new business decreased for the fourth consecutive month, with new export business declining the most since May 2020. There have been reports of expected orders being canceled or delayed as a result of factors like the cost-of-living crisis, rising uncertainty, and inflationary pressure. While outstanding business decreased for the seventh consecutive month, employment increased as businesses reported success in filling open positions. On the price front, input costs and output charges both increased more quickly, stayed high, and were far over the averages of their respective surveys.
As consumers and businesses struggle with rising energy prices, an increase in borrowing costs, and a volatile currency that hit a record low against the US dollar on September 26, Britain's economy is on the verge of going into recession.
Although a weaker pound should, in principle, increase demand for British goods by making them more affordable for foreign consumers, previous currency declines in 2008 and 2016 had little impact.
The PMI revealed that input cost inflation climbed for the first time in five months, partially as a result of the weaker pound, and that sterling weakening does increase the cost of imports of fuel and raw materials, which are frequently priced in dollars.
Sources: tradingeconomics.com, reuters.com
