The offshore trading session ended with declines in major indices, and the S&P 500 fell after a series of record sessions.
The market is awaiting the release this week of earnings reports from the largest U.S. companies and is watching developments in the Persian Gulf.
The aviation industry is one of many that is feeling the turbulence caused by the war in the Middle East. Possible shortages of aviation fuel are just one of the problems airlines have to deal with. Ryanair’s boss is taking it a step further. He points out which carriers may not withstand this pressure.
Donald Trump promised Americans a return to golden times, but reality brutally verified those promises. The latest Reuters and Ipsos poll is a cold shower for the White House, as support for the president fell to a record low of 34%. The war with Iran and the runaway fuel price inflation are eating political capital faster than the NASDAQ crash.
Before the decision. The market looks not only at rates, but also at Powell’s tone, his future, and liquidity. The Federal Reserve meeting ending on April 29, 2026, is unlikely to bring a rate change. Market and economic consensus remains clear, and the federal funds rate range should stay at 3.50-3.75%.
The trading session on Western European exchanges took on a mixed character. Buying pressure was evident in Milan, which ended the day with a clear gain, strengthening by 0.77%. Optimism also prevailed in Madrid (IBEX35: +0.46%) and London (FTSE100: +0.11%), where we observed index gains.
The stock price of a company attempting to develop a cancer drug fell by almost 50% in one day. The shares plunged after the manufacturer announced that one patient withdrew from a clinical trial and died from serious side effects related to the treatment.
Yesterday’s session on most markets ended with falling stock indices, and investors are nervously awaiting upcoming price‑setting events. Major indices on Wall Street also fell, mainly under pressure from declining tech companies.
On Tuesday, risk aversion intensified in financial markets, driven by another rise in oil prices and concerns about tighter monetary policy by central banks. In this environment, equity indices fell and global expectations of inflation pushed Treasury yields higher.
EU climate policy seems to “not take prisoners”. This is evidenced by plans to introduce a new ETS2 fee from 2028, which will hit not only the Polish economy but also Poles, especially the poorest. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has dismissed the “disarmament”. Unfortunately, this is once again mostly political wishful thinking.
Despite pressure from the European Union to transform the energy sector, coal remains expensive in Poland. Even after winter ends, there is no reason to expect discounts. On the contrary, 3,000 PLN per ton may soon become an attractive price.
Iran has appealed to the United States to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The information was conveyed by Donald Trump after the United Arab Emirates decided to leave OPEC and OPEC+.
For several weeks now, nothing has been able to dampen market sentiment. Although the road to resolving the conflict in the Middle East is long, its impact on the markets is increasingly diminishing. The most optimism is on Wall Street, where the leading topic is artificial intelligence. Will Super Wednesday be able to dampen these sentiments?
Tuesday was marked by a moderate correction in global equity markets. We still do not see a breakthrough in the situation at the Strait of Hormuz. As reported by the media, U.S. President Donald Trump and his national security team are skeptical of Iran's proposal to end the war, which involves opening the Strait of Hormuz and postponing talks on a nuclear program.
Polish investors on the Warsaw Stock Exchange are looking again at the Middle East. The lack of a clear answer to whether the war is ending prevents bulls from moving into an offensive, and bears dominate.
United Arab Emirates leave OPEC, reports Reuters. The decision made amid the current Middle East situation raises concerns about further weakening the energy market.
In March 2026, compared to March 2025, banks and credit unions granted more housing loans (+59.0%), installment loans (+29.5%) and cash loans (+12.3%). They issued fewer credit cards (-2.7%).
Just like in 4Q25, in the first quarter we expect solid double‑digit growth in results – with projected revenues of 75.4 million PLN, the company should achieve 31.9 million PLN EBITDA, 24.7 million PLN EBIT, and a net profit of 18.1 million PLN.
Uncertainty in geopolitics is making itself known again – markets see a strengthening of the USD and rising oil prices. Decision-makers in the Land of the Cherry Blossom kept rates unchanged, but the number of BoJ members with a hawkish stance is growing. EUR/PLN remains stable – the rate below 4.25.
Not every corporate loan works the same, even though many offers look similar from the outside. When you run a business, you need an answer to a simple question: will the money help you maintain liquidity today, or finance development that will start earning only in a few months or years? That determines not only the type of product but also the repayment period, how the funds are settled, required securities, and how the bank will assess your application.
Precious metals under pressure in the short term due to oil‑price‑driven inflation. The short‑term weakness of precious metals is primarily caused by oil‑price‑driven inflation rather than geopolitical factors. Rising energy prices strengthen the dollar and cement the scenario of prolonged high interest rates. Gold’s correction is cyclical, not structural – long‑term fundamentals remain intact.
FX Market: US-Iran Negotiation Stalemate – Iran Keeps Oil Prices High and Market Nervous. The Zloty Weakens. The €/US$ Rate Awaits Fed and ECB Meeting Outcomes.
There is a stalemate in communication between the USA and Iran regarding ending the war and unlocking the Strait of Hormuz. This morning Brent crude is priced over US$110 per barrel, yesterday's peak was US$109, and natural gas (TTF 1M) is almost €45 per MWh, yesterday prices approached €46. According to Bloomberg, only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
These are alarming figures. The Social Insurance Institution published data on the number of medical certificates issued by doctors in 2025. The numbers may shock. A total of 27.5 million medical certificates for temporary incapacity to work were registered, amounting to 290.5 million days of absenteeism. That is half a million more than the previous year.
The National Bank of Hungary made a decision on interest rates in April, the first since the landmark parliamentary elections. "There are still many unknowns," said ING economists, who expected a firm stance from the bank's decision makers.
The “Tobacco and Vapes Bill” is both a set of regulations and a gigantic civilizational experiment, because every person born after 2008 will receive a lifetime ban on purchasing tobacco. The United Kingdom has just launched a real legislative bomb that will forever change the face of society in the United Kingdom.
Bitget, the world’s largest universal exchange (UEX), announces the launch of the "Blockchain4Youth Education Center: Semester 1": a new educational initiative aimed at helping young people explore blockchain technology not only as a field of study but also as a real career path in the digital economy.
Poland has long been struggling with demographic problems. None of the solutions proposed so far have improved the long‑term situation, and worse, the government's actions do not help. In some cases they even harm. Among other things, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has repeatedly said that the war with Russia could be a matter of months, not years.
The market valuation of $1 trillion derived from Anthropic's valuation shows how aggressively private equity values companies that turn AI demand into revenue.
The government has decided what to do next with the CPN package (Fuel Prices Lower), which keeps the maximum fuel prices at Polish gas stations. The regulation will be in effect until mid‑May, the finance ministry said.
On the market we are witnessing a capital outflow from bonds. For now we are waiting to see where the funds will be redirected. Tomorrow not only the FED decision, but also a vote on the new head of the institution. Record pessimism in the United Kingdom.
Considering the uncertainty surrounding the war in Iran, it is not the best time for the Fed to commit to anything. We are confident that during its April meeting it will not change the level of interest rates.
The prospect of reaching an agreement with Iran that would restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz appears increasingly remote.
The USA seems to be getting more lost, lacking ideas for further scenarios. The thesis that a continued blockade of Iranian ports after several weeks would start to yield results, hitting the Iranian oil industry harder, is completely absurd.
The copper giant on the Warsaw Stock Exchange breaks the silence. The board of KGHM Polska Miedź officially recommended a dividend payout from 2025 profits. While the per-share amount may not dazzle investors used to the tech sector boom, it is a clear signal for the market. The company is returning to sharing the fruits of its labor with shareholders.
In March 2026, compared to March 2025, banks and credit unions granted more mortgage loans (+59.0%), installment loans (+29.5%) and cash loans (+12.3%). They issued fewer credit cards (-2.7%). In terms of value, banks and credit unions granted higher amounts of mortgage loans (+72.2%), installment loans (+21.9%) and cash loans (+20.6%).
Members of the RPP Henryk Wnorowski and Joanna Tyrowicz opposed a 25 basis point cut of NBP rates at the RPP meeting in March – as reported in the Court and Economic Monitor.
The Monetary Policy Council rejected, in March, for the third consecutive month, Joanna Tyrowicz’s proposal to raise rates by 75 basis points, against the opposition of the other RPP members – as stated on the National Bank of Poland’s website.
Disagreement between the United States and Iran is reaping its first harvest. The British government is considering measures aimed at improving the financial situation of Britons. This time, changes could affect the domestic real estate market.
The latest information turned out to be an Iranian offer for the gradual resolution of the conflict with the United States. According to unofficial press reports, it proposed a potential bilateral opening of the Strait of Hormuz and postponing other disputed issues to a later stage of negotiations.
The impasse in the Persian Gulf continues while macro data calendars remain empty. Economists and investors await central bank meetings: Wednesday will be the Fed and Thursday the ECB. Neither will change interest rates in our view.
• Today the government discusses the report on the implementation of the medium-term budgetary and structural plan
• Two members in the RPP voted against the March rate cut
• Oil is pricier than on Friday, the zloty slightly weaker, market interest rates up
Stock market bulls are not slowing down, even though Monday’s session on Wall Street felt more like the calm before the storm. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit historic highs, driven by faith in the silicon giant of artificial intelligence. Investors, however, are waiting for the earnings of the giants and the key decision of the U.S. central bank.
Steel prices in Europe rose in 1Q’26 by about 8-9% QoQ, while scrap costs (EAF/BOF) increased more slowly, by about 3-5% QoQ, improving the spread and supporting the profitability of European smelters. ArcelorMittal already in late ’25 signaled the need for long‑haul steel price hikes, confirming a +30 EUR/t move and a broader trend of rising price discipline in the industry.
Today the Council of Ministers will address, among other things, the draft report on the implementation of the medium-term budgetary-structural plan for 2025–2028 and the macroeconomic assumptions for 2026–2030.
Market sentiment is becoming increasingly nervous, and investors cannot decide which way the stock indices should move. The beginning of the week saw most markets stay near reference levels, although yesterday’s cosmetic rise in the S&P 500 allowed it to set a new historic high.
On Monday, investors analyzed reports regarding the possible resumption of USA–Iran talks, but the lack of new reliable information limited the impact of geopolitics on asset valuations. The zloty weakened only marginally against the euro and dollar, and the EURUSD rate remained near 1.17. In the domestic bond market, SPW yields rose by 4–6bp, following a moderate rise in U.S. Treasury and German Bund yields.
The popularity of houses up to 70 square meters has been growing year by year. In 2026 their number exceeded 4,000. The share of this type of property in the entire real‑estate market continues to rise. And this is not the only change in the Polish approach to real estate. They are choosing to build increasingly smaller structures.
Central banks are preparing to announce decisions on interest rates, which, in the current geopolitical landscape, should not bring surprises to markets. Mirosław Budzicki, financial markets strategist at PKO Bank Polski, in an interview with FXMAG, indicated what decisions can be expected this week from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and what their consequences might be for the dollar and euro rates.
Monday's session on the Warsaw Stock Exchange did not bring a breakthrough. Polish indices recorded another consecutive decline – WIG20 fell 0.79%, mWIG40 0.40%, and sWIG80 0.04%.
Clients looking for holiday offers often first consider the price. The lower it is, the more attractive it may be. The problem arises when the price of the same offer changes when you view its details. Such irregularities were detected by UOKiK against the travel service Traveplanet.pl and it imposed a penalty of nearly PLN 650,000.
The real estate market is currently undergoing a surprising turn of events. While tenants have been tightening their belts for years under the dictates of rising year‑over‑year rents, a new Metrohouse and Credipass analysis throws a challenge at the status quo. It turns out that under current financing conditions the line between paying someone else’s loan and building your own equity has become extremely thin.
Greece has been a top favorite for vacation destinations for many years. A weekly holiday on the mainland or the country’s islands offers relaxation amid beautiful nature and plenty of sunshine, while also providing attractive prices. See what costs you can expect in popular regions of Greece.
The euro has taken on the shape of an experimental test field in recent days, where bulls and bears sharpen horns and claws before the European Central Bank’s decision. Although inflation again frightens due to the ongoing chaos in the Middle East, the market clearly holds its breath. Is this the calm before the storm, or a pause on the road to a deeper correction?
In response to the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and the USA and Iran, financial markets have shifted expectations toward higher interest rates by major central banks.
Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to benefit from steady institutional investments, and demand for ETF funds, lower leverage levels, and a growing share of spot market investors keep both assets in a positive short‑term trend.
Fuel prices are rising at the start of the week despite reports of a potential restart of talks between the United States and Iran. Axios notes that the White House’s position, lacking official confirmation, remains ambiguous.
Attempts to defraud Polish citizens of data and money are a real plague. Criminals try new ways to lull the vigilance of their potential victims. After impersonating police officers, grandmothers, or couriers, it is now time for representatives of state-owned companies, including PGE.
The Employers' Organization, the Chamber of Entrepreneurs, has appealed to Prime Minister Donald Tusk to suspend the deposit system, conduct an audit of its effects, and analyze its effectiveness for environmental protection, as well as to halt work on plans to include additional packaging in this system.
Bitcoin continues a moderate rally. The focus is on the Bitcoin 2026 conference. Western Union confirms the launch schedule for the USDPT stablecoin.
Market situation on April 27 – the dollar is pulling back, but markets await Trump’s moves. Monday morning brings a slight weakening of the dollar across the broad market, which however does not fully align with the behavior of other assets – futures contracts on U.S. indices slightly lose, as do cryptocurrencies.
Super week in the markets. Two days that could significantly affect stocks, the dollar, and bonds. The week from April 27 to 30, 2026 is short for some European market participants because Friday, May 1 is a holiday, but it could also be one of the most important weeks of the quarter.
Regarding macro impulses, the week starts neutrally. Monday and Tuesday do not bring readings that would be important for the assets under analysis under current conditions. Wednesday, however, is scheduled for the publication of the ESI, which will likely split the European PMI and German Ifo, falling to multi‑year lows.
Krakow-based Bloober Team emerges from the shadows of giants and proves that Polish gamedev is more than just The Witcher and Cyberpunk. The latest analyst recommendation leaves no doubt. The market severely underestimated the company's potential, which is now entering the first tier of gaming horror.
• No key data releases today
• Recorded unemployment rate remained at 6.1% in March, decline in new industrial orders
• Zloty stable against the euro, domestic bond yields slightly up
This scenario may soon materialize in many European countries as well. In Uzbekistan, the focus was on cashless transactions. The regulation that came into force at the beginning of April 2026 currently creates more problems than benefits for citizens. It is not only about losing time in queues at ATMs, but also about real money loss.
April 24, after the session, Newag released full results for 2025, covering a very strong Q4 2025 and closing a record year for the Group. Revenues reached a total of PLN 2.42 bn (+59% YoY), EBITDA rose to PLN 487 m (+99% YoY), and net profit was PLN 340 m (+105% YoY). The full-year EBITDA margin settled at 21%, confirming structurally high profitability of the business at large delivery scale.
Once again, commodity markets show a hint of optimism. These are not breakthrough changes, but rather a certain stabilization linked to increasing chances. In the background it seems that the nomination of a new Fed Chair has overcome a significant problem.
Over the past two months, the US administration has authorized shots counted in the tens, if not hundreds of thousands. Until now, however, all of them took place far from the people concerned, literally on the other side of the globe. This weekend, however, the most important figures of American politics were reminded that the noise produced by weapons can be unsettling.
The unpredictable geopolitical environment, whose persistence increasingly impacts the prospects of the European economy, dampened the enthusiasm of stock market investors in the region.
Despite a new record on the U.S. S&P 500 index, Poland's WIG and Europe's Stoxx 600 fell during the past week.
The national currency also weakened over the week, and yields on domestic government bonds recorded a sharp rise across the entire curve.
The new week in the foreign exchange market is shaping up as a confluence of several strong impulses that could sustain elevated volatility. The focus remains on the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, whose progress directly determines high oil prices. At the same time, the market enters a decisive phase of the earnings season for U.S. tech giants.
The weekend did not bring a breakthrough in efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East, and the cancellation of the U.S. delegation in Pakistan was read as another reason to remain cautious in capital markets.
Will they recommend or not? Will bombs fall or not? In the topic of the war in the Middle East, everything has been changing like a kaleidoscope over the past few days. From this text you will learn what happened step by step and what the situation has become. And a lot has happened.
During the rolling week, financial markets were dominated by a rise in risk aversion linked to further tensions around Iran, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lack of breakthrough in peace talks, which clearly pushed oil prices higher – from about 95 USD per barrel at the start of the week to over 100 USD in its second half. In this environment the EURUSD fell and the zloty weakened.
Last week, March data from the Polish economy were released, which had a clearly positive tone, although they were partially supported by improved weather conditions and favorable calendar effects (see MAKROpulsy from 21.04.2026 and 23.04.2026).
In 2026, Wall Street no longer treats cryptocurrencies as a domain for speculators, actively investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum. While tensions in the Middle East build uncertainty, the digital asset market is beginning to climb. Christopher Kock, CEO of Virtune, explains what may drive cryptocurrencies in the near future.
The course of events in the Middle East conflict remains the main risk factor for financial markets this week. Despite ongoing mediation talks involving Pakistan and Oman, no breakthrough has occurred, and Iran signals it is not ready to resume direct negotiations with the U.S. under the conditions of maintaining the U.S. maritime blockade, which Tehran treats as a violation of the ceasefire.
The shortened pre‑market week will be very rich in data and macroeconomic events. It will be dominated by key central bank meetings. On Wednesday the Fed will decide on interest rates, while on Thursday the ECB.
The Federal Reserve will announce on the upcoming Wednesday a decision regarding the level of interest rates in April. UBS Bank claims that the conflict in the Middle East could again influence the direction of U.S. monetary policy. In such a scenario, the Federal Open Market Committee might decide to keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth month in a row.
Friday session on the Warsaw Stock Exchange extended the falling streak. Investors were skeptical about buying shares before the weekend amid a deadlock in US–Iran talks. Major indices fell at close: WIG20 0.61%, mWIG40 0.46%, and sWIG80 0.44%.
The last session of the previous week continued the trends observed in earlier days, namely weaker performance of European and emerging market stock indices amid overseas stock price rises. This divergence was indirectly caused by diminishing chances of a quick ceasefire in the Middle East, especially as Israel planned further attacks on Lebanon or Iran, which in subsequent days could break the temporary ceasefire.
Ancient Chinese curse (which is not actually Chinese) says: “May you live in interesting times” and it cannot be hidden that the year 2026 is packed with curiosities. Volatility becomes the only constant, gold breaks 4700 USD, oil tests new limits of the global economy’s resilience, analysts await the Fed meeting, and shots are falling in Washington. What will this week bring?
Institutional investors have just opened the doors to the technology sector, pumping $9.7 billion into Nasdaq futures contracts in just seven days. This is the largest capital rally in a decade. While the street still watches the creeping inflation with unease, the big finance crowd unanimously declares that tech giants are the only safe harbor in 2026.
What happened during the Friday session in the USA? It turns out that markets have stopped paying attention to the complicated situation in the Middle East. The question is whether they are proceeding correctly.
Poland stands on salt. It is one of the raw materials that we have in abundance as a country, yet we still import it in large quantities from other countries. Should economic policy be based solely on the economic account? Events in the Middle East have shown how valuable independence in raw materials is for a country's security. And salt is one of the key raw materials for our economy.
There are only a few days left to file the 2025 tax return. Those who have not yet done so should review their situation. The tax return prepared by the Tax Office is not always the best option. The reason is that the tax office does not propose the deductions that Poles can take advantage of.
Since the Zondacrypto scandal erupted, the cryptocurrency exchange has become the focus of many institutions' attention. Its expenditures, including advertising, have also been scrutinized. It turns out that most of the money earmarked for this purpose went to television… especially TV Republika.
Former politician and millionaire Janusz Palikot is venturing into a new business. He wants to create independent media, which he claims do not exist in Poland. For now, the idea behind a new online TV station is looking for investors with whom he plans to share future profits.
The transport industry has once again been put to the test over the course of a decade. With rising fuel prices, many companies trying to survive this difficult period are wondering what their future will look like. Is a transport crisis inevitable?
Artificial intelligence is developing at a dizzying pace. Alongside it come threats that are still hard to find information about. One of them is addiction. As therapist Iwona Jamróz claims AI can become addictive as quickly and strongly as drugs. She believes access to artificial intelligence should be restricted, especially for minors.
Friday’s session was marked by unease stemming from the Middle East. Investors fear the weekend and a possible resumption of war in Iran. Which companies performed well under such sentiment?
The situation around one of Poland’s largest discount chains – Dino – is becoming increasingly tense. The Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy has stepped in, calling on the State Labour Inspectorate to conduct an urgent inspection. Behind the scenes, there are allegations of employee intimidation and manipulation concerning labour law.
Friday morning was not optimistic. Oil prices continued to rise, forex looked toward safe havens, and German business sentiment turned out to be the worst in years. Will the second part of the session (as last week) bring a narrative shift and allow markets to view risky assets more favorably?
The Warsaw Stock Exchange is preparing to welcome a player that could stir up the QSR sector. Rex Concepts, the operator of Burger King and Popeyes brands, has just closed a key stage of its public offering, setting the share price at 14 PLN. Demand allowed the sale of the full pool, so the company's signal is clear – a player that must be taken seriously is entering the market.
Yesterday evening a series of information entered the market, causing a temporary rise in risk aversion and a clearer rise in oil prices (Brent from about 103 to 106.5 USD/b).
This is a situation that overturns the current energy order. Renewable energy has, for the first time in history, surpassed coal in global markets. It is a new trend that cannot be stopped, or is it just a temporary shift in energy dominance?
Donald Trump's posts on Truth Social are an integral part of the United States president's communication with the rest of the world. The platform provides key information about the Republican's policy, including that pursued in the Middle East. Could one step too far influence the escalation of conflict between Washington and Tehran? In a conversation with FXMAG, Andrzej Gwiżdż, an analyst of the investment platform Port, answered.
Oil once again dictates the conditions of the global economy, rising for the fifth day in a row. This is a reaction to the paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz and the bold attempts by Iranian supertankers to break the U.S. blockade. The market no longer assesses only risk, but takes into account a real supply shock.
From April 13-17 in Washington, the IMF and World Bank held their spring meetings, and the International Institute for Finance (IIF) hosted a conference. In this report we outline the main discussion topics and key takeaways for the global and European economies.
Over the past ten days, the mood around Bitcoin has moved out of extreme fear – the Fear & Greed index rose from the 25–30 range in mid‑April to about 50–60 this week, reaching its highest level in three months.
In Israeli media a narrative is emerging about the risk of restarting a war with Iran this weekend – the local defense minister implied that further targets have already been set. This is compounded by conflicting reports that Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf was allegedly removed from the US negotiation team under pressure from the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard), whose influence has grown significantly.
Creepy Jar (valuation 802 PLN as of 12.01.2026) – 4Q25 results – a great finish for Green Hell
On the markets, confidence in calming the situation in the Middle East is increasingly waning. Investors are buying oil and the dollar, fearing an extension of the U.S.-Israeli intervention. Behind the scenes, good sales data in Poland, but that does not change the fact that this is a week of capital flight from our country.
