In the Middle East situation it is becoming increasingly difficult not only for average observers but also for experts to make sense of it. After one de-escalation signal, another report of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz follows. Investors live in a spiral of emotions from one social media post to the next. Will the candidate for the new Fed chief add his two cents tomorrow?
Bitget, the world’s largest universal exchange (UEX) in collaboration with Block Scholes released a new report highlighting the growing convergence between cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets, as investors increasingly move between asset classes in response to global macroeconomic events.
Market attention is currently focused on the volatile course of negotiations between the United States and Iran, which directly impacts fluctuations in oil prices in the 90–100 dollar per barrel range.
Financial markets are constantly digesting news from the Middle East, while the EUR/USD rate is gearing up to attack the psychological barrier. ING Think experts in their latest report outline a scenario in which the White House and Donald Trump’s policies and central bank actions become rocket fuel for the European currency.
The last months for Dino Polska have been marked by problems. After employees accused the chain’s management of working in “inhuman conditions” – referring to the very low temperatures in the stores – the time for protest and a fight for wage increases has come. And these are not the only problems the Dino authorities have to deal with.
Anthropic has once again decided to strike corporations where it hurts the most, namely the portfolios of SaaS giants. Although the turmoil around Mythos and banks still does not subside, the Dario Amodio startup now targets the creative industry. Claude Design’s impact caused shares of not only Figma but also the giant Adobe to drop.
Friday brought an unexpected de-escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. The announcement by the head of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to open the Strait of Hormuz fueled risk appetite and clearly overvalued oil and its products – the price of a barrel of diesel fell 12% to just under 130 USD.
Friday's session, backed by reports of the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, closed a positive week for risk assets. Major stock indices rose – the WIG and S&P 500 broke new highs, and the zloty strengthened against the EUR and USD.
The Oman Gulf is currently a theater of operations that could realistically shake up the balance of power in the Middle East. Donald Trump confirmed the seizure of the Iranian cargo ship Touska by the U.S. Navy. The Brent and WTI oil markets reacted instantly.
Today no significant data releases
Iran again blocked the Strait of Hormuz, after a brief resumption of traffic on Friday
Clear but temporary strengthening of the zloty and domestic debt on Friday
The Norwegian government is considering measures that are intended to be a response to growing disruptions in the fuel market. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre emphasized that the situation in the country is under control. However, he did not rule out that it could change in the event of new challenges coming from the Middle East.
In the Middle East, so many breakthroughs were announced that wars should no longer exist. Reality shows, however, that the Strait of Hormuz is currently blocked by both sides. After Friday's optimism, the markets have almost no trace left.
The zloty weakened slightly on Monday morning following a risk‑averse rally after Middle East news. Contrary to Friday afternoon reports, the Strait of Hormuz was not opened.
Iran accused the USA of further blocking shipping to Iranian ports and of refusing to unfreeze foreign assets, which was supposed to be part of a uranium enrichment agreement.
The upcoming week will be richer in new macroeconomic data releases. Primarily we will learn a series of domestic data that will complete the picture of 1Q 2026 in the Polish economy. It was slightly worse than expected, especially in industrial production and construction, largely due to an unexpectedly strong winter.
Policymakers have been debating the abolition of the RTV subscription for a long time. Such voices already appeared in the election campaign. However, this does not mean that the ruling coalition wants to eliminate the fee for Poles, but only to change the way it is calculated. Moreover, after the changes the politicians are working on, avoiding payment will become impossible.
Last Friday, the Wall Street market closed its third consecutive week of gains in the major indices. The gains were driven by hope for de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and the biggest tech companies (except Netflix, whose price fell by almost 10% after the release of quarterly results) returned as growth engines.
In recent months, noticeable differences have emerged in the dynamics of food and non‑alcoholic beverage prices among CE4 countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania). Analyzing HICP inflation data for this category in February, prices rose most sharply in Romania (+8.0% y/y), while Hungary experienced deflation (-3.2% y/y).
Last week’s published data from China confirmed a very strong start to the year, but also showed that the recovery remains uneven. GDP growth accelerated in Q1 2026 to 5.0% YoY from 4.5% in Q4 2025, and on a quarterly basis to 1.3% QoQ from 1.2%, driven primarily by high activity in advanced technology sectors and services.
CD Projekt shares have turned out to be an investment hit in recent days. Kamil Szczepański, XTB analyst, stated in his latest interview with FXMAG that the impact of the giant’s price rise could also affect other Polish gaming sector companies.
The situation around Iran and the conflict in the Middle East will remain the main factor shaping market sentiment this week. On Friday we observed a clear improvement in sentiment after Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial shipping during the ceasefire.
What may not please employers will delight many employees. From July, the State Labour Inspectorate will gain new powers, and consequently the way thousands of employees are hired in Poland may change. “Garbage” contracts, i.e. work and assignment contracts, as well as B2B contracts, can be converted into employment contracts.
In the completed week, global equity markets celebrated the end of the war in the Middle East and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Financial markets remain under pressure from events in the Middle East. The vision of peace talks has receded after weekend reports. In a conversation with FXMAG, Michał Stajniak, deputy director of the XTB Analysis Department, explained their impact on the currency market.
Friday trading continued Thursday's optimism, which turned into outright euphoria in the equity and bond markets. The main driver of gains was news of the unlocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces, a key point of Thursday's agreement between Israel and Lebanon (10‑day ceasefire).
Just before the weekend, last Friday, the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz was announced. This information was provided by Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, and shortly after, Donald Trump announced a great victory and pointed to an imminent peace.
Although the USA remains the place where the biggest AI‑related start‑ups are developed, the aisles of American supermarkets still cling to analog nostalgia. Walmart intends to change that by installing electronic labels and a machine‑learning system for price setting in all 4,600 stores. This decision has sparked a huge storm in the U.S. Congress.
The war in the Middle East leaves its mark on our country's economy. One of its negative effects is the rise in inflation, which was recorded in March. This was caused in part by rising fuel prices. Despite this situation, there are goods and services whose prices have clearly fallen.
What fate awaits the U.S. dollar? In the context of geopolitical turbulence on EUR/USD pairs, but also USD/PLN, drastic changes may occur. Analysts point to potential declines.
In the cryptocurrency industry we have already seen spectacular collapses from Mt.Gox to FTX, but now we have also witnessed a Polish crypto crisis. The latest statements from Zondacrypto’s CEO, instead of putting out the fire of uncertainty among customers, only added gasoline to the blaze. How can one stay calm when 4,500 corporate BTC are locked in a safe with no key?
Friday’s session was marked by a bull and faith in a quick end to the war in the Middle East. Donald Trump provided strong emotions, saying the conflict could end soon. The problem is that Iranian authorities discredited his revelations.
Today on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the market was buzzing with champagne: further reports from the Middle East suggest that growth is ahead. The main coal company, Bogdanka, is losing.
In mid‑March we published a report with three scenarios for the economic situation, depending on how long‑lasting and severe the commodity shock triggered by the war in Iran turns out to be.
The commodity market on the London Metal Exchange currently resembles a thriller, with rockets, maritime blockades, and trading algorithms playing the main roles. The LMEX index, tracking the prices of six key industrial metals, reached its historic high on Friday, April 17. A rise of almost 12% over four weeks says a lot about the metals market.
They resign from work, representing not only their husband but the entire country – the first lady in Poland, despite fulfilling many duties and participating in social initiatives, does not receive a salary. The discussion to change this has been ongoing in the Sejm for months. For now, Poles have spoken on the matter.
Housing prices are relentless, and in March residents of the San Francisco Bay Area painfully realized this. Housing in the region became more expensive due to a surge in demand from tech industry workers who, with the right financial resources, sought a home in one of the world’s most attractive places.
On Thursday, at the Presidential Palace, the New Media Council was ceremonially appointed. This body is meant to support the head of state in matters concerning digital transformation, the functioning of the media market, and solutions related to new technologies. Immediately after announcing the council members online, there was a stir. It is about the nomination.
Today early Brent crude was priced near US$98 per barrel, and natural gas (TTF 1M) near €42 per MWh, i.e. below yesterday’s local peaks of US$99.80 and €42.80 respectively. Investors have shrugged off U.S. or Iranian comments and are awaiting specifics, especially a U.S.–Iran agreement that would come into force after the current cease‑fire expires in five days.
The distinguishing feature of the Macro Economic Survey compared to other surveys of its kind is the use of probabilistic questions, referring to the subjective probability of scenarios for the development of the economic situation predicted by experts. They concern CPI inflation, GDP growth rate, and the NBP reference rate.
Will there be an agreement this weekend? Another round of talks is scheduled for this weekend. Markets are reacting, but without excessive expectations. Core inflation in Poland is indeed rising, but still remains at relatively low levels. US data show a decline in industrial production.
Today there are no significant data releases
Core inflation rose to 2.7% y/y in March from 2.5% y/y in February
After revising GDP data, growth in 2025 is still estimated at 3.6%
Stabilisation in the currency market, minor changes in the debt market
Two of the biggest players in the semiconductor ecosystem released financial reports that shook the market. While they would normally spark euphoria, due to the AI bubble, Wall Street reacted almost brutally. What comes next?
Political optimism does not eliminate risk for oil and inflation. Financial markets began pricing the possibility of a rapid de-escalation of the conflict around Iran after Donald Trump suggested that Tehran had made significant concessions, and a settlement ending the dispute could be announced soon.
Oil prices fall after further assurances from Donald Trump that the conflict in the Middle East is nearing its end. The U.S. President deflects accusations of responsibility for the fuel price surge and rising inflation concerns. “If an agreement is reached, it will be announced soon,” he says.
Poles are drinking less. These are the results of studies indicating a shift in trends among residents of our country. There are several reasons for this. Among them are the trend of not drinking, savings, and greater concern for health. What is good from a health perspective can have negative effects on the economy, because the alcohol sector is a powerful branch of it.
The SEC roundtable discussion on the structure of the options market showed that even in mature derivatives markets, liquidity remains concentrated in a limited number of key contracts, while the number of quotes grows on distributed platforms.
One of the breakthrough moments in financial markets was the emergence of ETF funds, which revolutionized the way capital is invested. Today we are witnessing another important stage of this evolution – the creation of Bitcoin-based ETFs. What exactly is a Bitcoin ETF, how does it work, and who can benefit from it? Answers to these questions can be found in the article below.
Wall Street indices are not giving up the win – after a good Thursday, Friday also looks bullish, as indicated by contracts on Wall Street. This happens despite correction signals in Asian markets and reports suggesting "moderate" progress toward peace in the Middle East.
Donald Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10‑day ceasefire. Although it currently appears fragile, it provides a solid foundation for the next round of crucial peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. Despite the lack of specifics regarding the date of the negotiating teams’ meeting, financial markets clearly lived on hope for an upcoming peace.
The Thursday session on European exchanges was marked by a lack of investor conviction. The German DAX and the London FTSE100 finished above the line, strengthening by 0.35% and 0.29% respectively.
Loss of premises is often the beginning of a business’s end. Outstanding payments and threats of contract termination make many entrepreneurs feel as if they are under a wall. In such a case, a swift response is necessary, to block the termination of lease agreements. Support in this area is offered by specialists, including. kancelariagrp.pl, which implements legal solutions aimed at protecting the company from bankruptcy.
Overall, we consider the preliminary data for Q1 2026 to be weak and disappointing, especially since Q1 2026 should, in our view, be the seasonally strongest quarter, and the growing share of renewable energy will displace coal production from the merit order in the coming quarters.
The zloty on Thursday was slightly weaker against the euro and dollar, with the EUR/PLN rate rising to around 4.24, and USD/PLN to 3.60. On base markets the EUR/USD rate fell to 1.1780.
On Thursday, stock indices in base markets continued to rise, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the day at historic highs. In FI markets, yield changes were again small, and investor optimism was limited by rising oil prices and accompanying inflation expectations.
On the domestic equity market indices recorded yesterday slight declines of up to 0.5% after several days of gains in previous sessions. The EUR/PLN rate gradually rose during the day to just over about 4.24 from about 4.232.
Today’s calendar of important macroeconomic data is very sparse. As a result, investors’ attention is already turning to the next week, the possible extension of the ceasefire between the USA and Iran, and ongoing peace negotiations. The key issue remains the deadline for restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
We view Quercus TFI’s 1Q26 results slightly positively – the first quarter proved to be a very good start of the year for the company. Net profit amounted to PLN 16.0m (76% YoY) and was 8% above our expectations. The better-than-expected net profit was driven by higher-than-expected management fees and better Xelion results.
The share price of Big Cheese Studio fell by 50% since the end of March. The reason turned out to be the not-so-successful launch of the developer’s new game. Is the market reaction exaggerated? In an interview with FXMAG, Kamil Szczepański, XTB analyst, responds.
On Thursday, global equity markets still leaned towards optimism, although after a strong rally since the beginning of the month the buying advantage was not large. During the European session we observed mixed results for some indices (e.g., declines in the French CAC40 or Swiss SMI alongside gains in the German DAX or British FTSE 100).
Signals of emerging possibilities for peace negotiations in the Middle East clearly affect financial markets. Maciej Przygórzewski, chief currency expert at Currency One, operator of the Internet services Internetkantor.pl and Walutomat.pl, conveyed in an interview with FXMAG what currency rates can expect if the scenario of a slowdown of the conflict between the United States and Iran and regional states is fulfilled.
The revision of GDP data raised the 2024 result to 3.2% from 3.0%, while the total 2025 result remained unchanged (3.6%), although the estimates for Q4 were slightly increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1% year‑over‑year. The upward revision was mainly due to higher investment estimates – according to GUS, investments grew by 0.4% in 2024 and by 4.4% in 2025 (previously estimated at –0.9% and 4.3% respectively).
The market’s reaction to Netflix’s results shows a classic disconnect between what the company “showed” and what investors “expected next.” At first glance, the Q1 2026 report was strong: both revenue (12.25 bn USD vs 12.17 bn USD forecast) and EPS (1.23 USD vs 0.66 USD forecast) clearly beat consensus, and the company also demonstrated a very solid cash‑generation level.
There are no indications on the horizon that the war in Iran could end, and its effects are increasingly felt worldwide. More problems may soon arise, and it will be difficult to find a solution. Among them are shortages of aviation fuel, which could be so severe that many flights will be canceled – warns Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency.
The Middle East "agreement" allows capital markets to not so much take a breath with relief, but to direct their gaze towards an even more brilliant future. The currency market is more cautious in this regard, but it seems that at least a modest correction has come, which on Wednesday directs capital to the USD. China once again confirms its resilience to turbulence in global trade with macro data.
The commodities market, quoting our prophet Adam Mickiewicz, was already in the garden, already greeting the storm, when the United States and Iran last week announced a two‑week ceasefire. It seemed that the Strait of Hormuz, blocked for over a month, would finally open, and tankers, like residents of a small town at the opening of Lidl, would almost pass through it. Meanwhile, another could become blocked.
The Ministry of Energy has announced what the maximum fuel rates will be on Friday. On that day all prices will be reduced. It is yet another day in a row when drivers will notice a drop in prices, although it should be noted that the difference is merely “cosmetic”.
The U.S. economy, despite apparent resilience, is starting to feel the weight of geopolitical disruptions. Société Générale Bank has indicated how the euro to dollar rate may shape in the near future if the planned peace negotiations between the United States and Iran succeed.
Many circles are proposing an increase of the second tax threshold. Now members of the Polska 2050 club have joined, submitting a draft law on the matter. The initiative of Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz’s party was supported by President Karol Nawrocki.
Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), released a transparency report for Q1 2026, indicating a clear shift in user trading behavior as they increasingly move between cryptocurrency and traditional markets within a single account.
Recent regulatory changes in Pakistan, Japan, and the United States indicate that the cryptocurrency market is entering another phase of coordinated policy normalization across both emerging and developed markets.
CTAs have no opinions. They have models. And that’s why the market watches closely to see if they’re buying shares again. In recent weeks the CTA abbreviation has appeared in market commentary unusually often. First banks wrote that these funds are selling shares, then that they might return to buying. It sounds a bit like there’s a mysterious group on Wall Street with a big sell and buy button.
GUS confirmed a preliminary estimate of CPI inflation at 3.0% year-over-year, maintaining that fuel prices for transport increased on average in March by 15.4% month-over-month compared to the previous month.
U.S. regulators have taken a close look at suspicious oil market transactions observed just before major announcements by Donald Trump regarding the Middle East war. According to people familiar with the case, the use of confidential information allowed the rapid acquisition of billions of dollars. The question is who received them.
Direct talks between the USA and Iran will not take place today, but the parties will mutually consult with the help of Pakistani negotiators. Donald Trump confirmed the willingness to reach an agreement, though as he added it may require increased pressure on Iran. Secretary Scott Bessent has already frozen the foreign assets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and has not ruled out imposing further sanctions on those who decide to import Iranian oil.
We know that automotive conglomerates are starting to shift to producing military equipment, because such events have occurred in history. Few expected that in the 21st century someone would again come up with such an idea. It came from the administration of President Donald Trump, which intended to propose this to two American automotive conglomerates.
April is a tangle, because it intertwines – a deposit no longer yields profit. The conflict in the Middle East has struck not only gold prices. Its effects are also visible where, at first glance, one would expect calm, namely the market for bank deposits. March’s rise in inflation sharply worsened their real profitability, and from April yearly deposits that end again started to incur losses.
The S&P 500 index broke through the 7000-point barrier and continues its upward march, testing new historic highs around 7050 points. The rebound has lasted for four consecutive days, and Wall Street sentiment has improved markedly after weeks of strong volatility triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.
Today’s data on core inflation in March and a revision of GDP data for the last 2 years
March CPI rate confirmed at 3.0% y/y and 1.1% m/m
Budget deficit rose in March by 21.1 bn PLN to 69.6 bn PLN
Further gradual strengthening of the zloty, slight rise in bond yields and market rates
The effects of the war in the Persian Gulf are already being felt worldwide. However, this is just the beginning of an avalanche that will lead to a slowdown of the global economy – says Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund. The repercussions of the events in the Middle East may be felt for several years.
Despite the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, which has kept energy markets on edge since February 2026, Polish drivers are getting a breather. While the price of a barrel of oil on the London and New York exchanges reacts nervously to every report from the front, the Polish government decides to tighten the algorithmic screw, forcing price cuts at fuel stations.
Poland remains the EU country that has not yet voted on regulations concerning the cryptocurrency market. And many indications suggest that this will not change in the near future. What does this mean for the average investor?
The last hours have mainly brought speculation about a ceasefire in the fighting in Lebanon. "The Israeli cabinet (key security ministers) met on Wednesday to discuss the possibility of a truce in neighboring Lebanon – a senior Israeli official said – after more than six weeks of war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah" (Reuters dispatch here).
The insurance sector is one of the main institutional investors in Poland. Last year, according to data from the Polish Insurance Chamber, it invested 111.5 bn PLN in bonds and other fixed-income securities and over 20 bn PLN in shares, stocks and variable-income securities.
During Wednesday trading, the U.S. broad market index climbed to a new all‑time high. This illustrates investors’ strong appetite for risk, even amid the potential escalation of conflict in the Persian Gulf region. European investors did not display the same optimism during yesterday’s session, largely selling equities and debt.
U.S. equity markets recorded gains in yesterday's session, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new record highs. Market participants increasingly factor in a gradual de-escalation in their scenarios.
The conflict in the Middle East remains at the center of financial markets’ attention. Peace talks involving representatives of the US and Iran ended in failure, and the US administration announced the implementation of a maritime blockade.
Who did Donald Trump let make money? This type of headline and its variations have been scrolling through the media for over a year, basically since the very beginning of the second term of the current U.S. president. And at least they are not about potential raises for members of his administration. No, no. The amounts that will be mentioned in this text far exceed the annual salaries of the top figures of American politics
The Wednesday session in financial markets proceeded calmly, with limited volatility and a sparse macroeconomic calendar. Market sentiment remained relatively positive, although earlier optimism linked to a possible resumption of USA–Iran talks slightly weakened, resulting in a slowdown in global equity markets and Brent oil prices stabilizing near 95 USD/b.
Representatives of Washington and Tehran are moving towards another attempt to curb the conflict in the Middle East. Bloomberg claims that the ceasefire could be extended for another two weeks. Mirosław Budzicki, financial markets strategist at PKO Bank Polski, explained what the currency market can expect if the scenario currently priced by investors materializes.
On Wednesday we continued to see gains in global equity markets. While the European session was mixed, Polish market listings stood out positively on the GPW. This time, mid‑cap and small‑cap stocks performed on par with the large caps, indicating a return of domestic capital to the market after the March correction.
The GPW remains under the influence of events from the Middle East, which would allow bulls to register a new record today. Against the broader market backdrop, however, the well-known developer company looks bad.
Representatives of unions linked to the steel, metallurgical industry, processing companies and distributors are appealing to the European Union for actions regarding regulations that will stop the influx of finished goods from outside the “Community”. The European, and also Polish, economy is at stake. In our country alone, about 160 thousand jobs are at risk.
Leader of the TISZA party, Peter Magyar, who won the Sunday elections in Hungary, announced that upon taking office he will suspend the broadcasting of news programs in public media. As he emphasized, the situation will last until the supervisory board can ensure objective reporting.
We raise our recommendation on Vercom to Buy and simultaneously lift the target price to 153 PLN, implying a 21% upside potential. In recent weeks, the software sector has been under clear pressure, driven by heightened investor concerns about the impact of AI development on the business models of technology firms.
According to GUS data, the CPI inflation rose in March to 3.0% year‑over‑year compared to 2.1% in February, aligning with market consensus and our forecast. The significant rise in March was largely driven by the increase in fuel price dynamics to 8.6% year‑over‑year versus –7.8% in February.
Global financial markets today resemble a barren wasteland, where traditional safe havens clash with the digital avant‑garde. Bitcoin, once seen as a novelty, has become a full‑fledged actor on the geopolitical stage, reacting to every whimper from the Middle East. Ignacio Aguirre, CMO of Bitget, told FXMAG what actually drives cryptocurrency valuations and whether we have a chance for a return of the wild altcoin season.
Until recently, an electronic invoice was simply a PDF file sent by email, quick, convenient and… entirely sufficient. Today it increasingly means communication in the Peppol standard, a network that organizes international document exchange between companies and administrations. In this article we explain who a Peppol provider actually is and why it is becoming harder to operate efficiently in modern e‑invoice circulation without one.
The large block was a revolution in the 70s – finally improving housing for millions of Poles. However, increasingly people say this type of property will lose value. New data shed a completely different light on this."
The euro-to-dollar rate has a chance to test lower levels, analysts at ING Think say. The bank, however, believes there is still room for better outcomes, mainly due to calls for a planned second round of peace talks between the United States and Iran.
S&P 500 rebounds below record, oil returns part of war premium. Funds remain short on stocks. On Tuesday, April 14, 2026, Wall Street clearly accelerated, as the market began to play not so much the conflict itself, but the scenario of its controlled fading. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and is now only about 0.2% below the January record, Nasdaq gained 2%, and Brent oil fell 4.6% to $94.79 per barrel.
The deposit system introduced in the second half of 2025 was supposed to be an eco-friendly program that would allow for obtaining more valuable raw material through recycling. In practice it turns out to cause many problems that Poles have to face. And if that wasn’t enough, it could lead to penalties, and consequently higher fees for waste collection.
