According to the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) forecast from March 10, global grain production in the 25/26 season will rise to 2,435.3 million tonnes compared to 2,311.8 million tonnes in the 24/25 season (+5.3%). This will be driven by higher yields of corn (+5.4%), wheat (+5.2%), barley (+7.6%) and other grain varieties (+3.0%).
Before the outbreak of war in Iran and the rise of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, we predicted that in the coming months the RPP would decide on another interest rate cut, ending the easing cycle with a reference rate of 3.50%.
The war in the Middle East negatively affects aviation. Fewer connections and higher flight costs lead to serious problems that carriers will have to face. It is possible that many of them may be forced to declare bankruptcy.
Rising fuel prices pushed inflation up to 3% y/y in March. In April a slight decline is expected, but its scale will depend on commodity price behaviour in the coming weeks. Considering the situation in the Middle East, we currently assess that even in a scenario of relatively rapid conflict de-escalation, the return of commodity prices to lower levels will be gradual.
By the end of Q2 2026 we forecast the EUR/PLN at 4.28 and USD/PLN at 3.69, with EUR/USD at 1.16.
The further development of events in the Persian Gulf is very difficult to predict. While the scenario of a gradual de-escalation of the conflict remains the baseline, a temporary escalation cannot be ruled out, let alone its prolongation over time
Today’s data on the US labor market situation in March
Kotecki and Litwiniuk indicate that no interest rate cuts should be expected
Small changes in EURPLN, slowdown in yield declines and money market rates
American pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly published on April 1 information about the approval of one of its products by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The company, the largest competitor of Danish giant Novo Nordisk, seeks to strengthen its position in the U.S. market. Analysts say it is on a good path to achieve further successes.
The first session of the new quarter passed with a sign of maintaining positive investment sentiment, supported by growing market hopes for de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The impulse came from signals coming from the USA, indicating the possibility of ending military actions against Iran within a few weeks.
Today only data on unemployment benefits in the USA
Polish industrial PMI rose in March by 1.6 points to 48.7 points, better than expectations
The deficit of the state sector amounted to 7.2% of GDP in 2025
Small changes in the EURPLN exchange rate, further strengthening of bonds and a decline in market rates
Donald Trump’s State of the Union address triggered a discount on the metals market. Gold and silver are cheaper, as are palladium and platinum. Investors fear that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East will push central banks to raise interest rates.
Although the long‑awaited speech by D. Trump was not a breakthrough, it is worth highlighting its key elements (PAP coverage here, full NYT text here). Earlier suggestions by the U.S. president that the administration intends to finish the core part of the operation in 2‑3 weeks were confirmed (“within the next two or three weeks we intend to attack them with great force,” Trump said).
GPW once again ended the day in green. Which companies performed best today, and which performed worst? Analyst DM BOŚ observed everything.
Artificial intelligence can today answer almost any question in a few seconds. We increasingly ask chatbots about things we once checked with people. But is AI really something new? Or have we always had our own "language models" around us – local entrepreneurs, craftsmen and experienced people who combined facts, built relationships and answered our questions?
Entrepreneurs in Poland face many challenges. Among others, they must adapt their businesses to new regulations. Large issues also concern personnel. How does this look in companies operating in Poland? We asked Dr. Iwona Jaroszewska‑Ignatowska, who daily participates in processes carried out in international and Polish enterprises through client assignments, about this, including group layoffs.
Since February 1 2026, Poland has had the National e-Invoice System in force. Until now, only the largest entrepreneurs had to use it. That will change in a week. On April 1 2026, more companies will join this group. Some of them still hope that this moment will be postponed.
The New York Times reports on a new plan by Donald Trump to end the conflict in the Middle East. Fifteen points presented to Iran by Pakistan temporarily eased concerns in the fuel market. Nevertheless, as Goldman Sachs Research experts say, tensions related to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last for several more weeks.
The Polish exchange pleasantly surprised today: we saw gains. It was strongly boosted by the Polish champion, CD Projekt. Which other companies also rose?
MKT INTEL VIEWS: NVDA delivered a solid print (rev +56%y/y) but the stock is down as this was the smallest % increase in 2 years and results were a bit light of expectations (see our spec sales take here). The stock market reaction across Asia Tech seems to suggest the AI trade remains intact, although reports that China chipmakers are aiming to triple AI chip output next year also helped (within SHCOMP, Tech is the only sector in the green this morning as 85% of stocks are lower).
As reported by Jiji Press on 27 August, the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election management committee indicated that day that names will be taken and disclosed when it asks lawmakers and prefectural chapter representatives for their preferences on truncating Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's term to hold a new internal leadership election.
We continue to refine the tariff assumptions underlying our global economic and FX outlook, and we believe most tariffs will remain in place from Q2-2025 through the remainder of our forecast horizon. As far as the assumptions, we assume a 20% tariff on China and a 10% tariff on the European Union.
Stronger seasonals, lower rates and oversold momentum indicators support our call for a tradeable rally from ~5500. A weaker dollar and stabilizing Mag 7 EPS revisions can drive capital back to the US. Beyond the tactical rally, volatility will likely persist this year.
Dollar consolidates weekly gains, NOK and CAD buck trend in G10, AUD and JPY underperform. RUB and BRL excel in EM, intervention lifts TRY from record lows. 2y UST steady at 3.96%, 10y UST on 200dma (4.23%), US HY credit tightens to 314bp. Oil prices bid after US tightens sanctions on Iran, OPEC+ plans new supply cut to compensate for overproduction.
New York, NY - Hola Prime has presented a major enhancement to its compliance framework, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and accountability in proprietary trading. As regulators and market participants call for greater compliance, Hola Prime has implemented a robust monitoring system to uphold fair and ethical trading practices.
“When the path is uncertain you go a little bit slower” – Chair Powell. The expectation is for the Fed to leave their policy rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. To us, uncertainty around the macro environment and politics will likely equate to little changes to the Fed’s forward guidance. Powell will likely want to keep all the options open.
The #1 B2B & B2C online trading expo in the region is returning for a second edition.
Total construction outlays declined 0.2% during January. Residential spending ended a three-month streak of gains and fell 0.5% during the month. Although single-family spending continued to expand, multifamily and home improvement spending both dropped.
When will the altcoin season begin? - this is the question a large group of investors are asking themselves today. In this text we will try to answer the question of why we still do not see big increases on the charts of alternative cryptocurrencies to bitcoin, and whether altcoins will show their potential at all in this cycle.
The U.S. is currently working to regulate the cryptocurrency market. Earlier by a couple of years, such action was taken by El Salvador. Only that this regulatory testing ground shows how cryptocurrency adoption should not be encouraged.
Everyone who is interested in cryptocurrencies has probably heard of the Lazarus Group by now. It's a community of North Korean hackers that works with the Kim regime.
The cryptocurrency market allows us to make money in various ways. The simplest method is to simply invest in digital assets. However, it turns out that you can start your adventure in the industry even without initial capital. Aidrops can help with this.
FP Markets is one of the more popular Forex brokers that offers a wide range of services to traders around the world. It was founded in 2005 in Australia and has since gained a large number of followers, with its offerings appealing to both beginners and experienced traders.
