Forex

Hola Prime Wins “Fastest Payout Prop Firm - MEA 2026” And Publishes the Operational Data Behind It

Prop Trading Firm Pairs Industry Recognition With Measured Payout Metrics and System Disclosure

Dollar in Focus as Dual NFP Report and Global FX Shifts Shape Market Outlook

EM currencies are generally ending the year on a strong footing – enjoying the benefits of lower core policy rates, a modestly weaker dollar and many offering high carry. There is a lot of focus on the renminbi at the moment and whether China's $1tr trade surplus will drive the renminbi much stronger. For today, the focus is on US jobs and eurozone PMIs

China’s CPI Rises to a 21-Month High, Easing Deflation Fears but Keeping PPI in the Red

A surge in fresh vegetable prices helped propel China’s food inflation back to positive territory and headline CPI inflation to a 21-month high of 0.7% year on year in November

Who is Veladur broker? | Pros & Cons| What should you know before opening an account?

As the online trading landscape continues to evolve, investors are seeking platforms that combine security, innovation, and global accessibility. VELADUR has emerged as a modern multi-asset broker and investment firm delivering speed, transparency, and precision to traders and investors worldwide.

FX Outlook: Geopolitics, Central Bank Moves, and Key Currency Developments

The UK Budget announcement (12.30 GMT) will see markets weigh both fiscal and inflationary implications. Sterling faces moderate downside risks in a non-inflationary, fiscally tight scenario, and severe risks if fiscal sustainability is called into doubt. Elsewhere, the dollar has more potential to depreciate despite yesterday’s correction

UK Autumn Budget: Fiscal Credibility, Gilt Risk Premiums, and the Role of Foreign Investors

The UK government's budget announcement will need to show fiscal discipline to satisfy gilt investors, and while our baseline sees enough credibility to nudge the risk premium in gilt yields lower, we are well aware of significant upside risks too. Foreign gilt investors are relatively important and could even gain in importance in the future

Autumn 2025 FX Report: Expectations, Monitoring List Changes, and Policy Implications

The November FX Report has been delayed but should be released soon. We expect an emphasis on the changing approach towards a tighter scrutiny on US partners’ FX practices, but we don’t think we’ll see any FX manipulator designation by Treasury. Thailand should, however, join the Monitoring List, and Switzerland will remain a focus point for markets

Germany’s Economy: Three Years of Stagnation With Only Limited Signs of Recovery

Same old story: Germany’s longest stagnation has now been confirmed. The economy will remain stuck until fiscal stimulus begins to take effecta

USD Overvaluation Persists as Geopolitics Dominate and JPY Faces Intervention Risks

A December Fed cut is back as a baseline scenario for markets, but the dollar has remained relatively strong. Our short-term valuation metrics point to significant risks of a USD correction, unless data prompts a hawkish repricing. Geopolitics will remain in focus, both for European FX (Ukraine peace talks) and the yen (Japan-China tensions over Taiwan)

Rising December Rate Cut Bets Drive Volatility in Silver and Bonds

• Fed rate cut expectations surge: Probability of a December 2025 rate cut jumped from 39% to nearly 70% in one day (CME FedWatch Tool)
• Silver market reacts: Increased volatility as traders respond to dovish Fed commentary
• Bond yields drop: 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields fall, steepening the curve and boosting appetite for risk assets, including precious metals

GBP Steady Ahead of UK Budget; CEE FX Eyes Ukraine Peace Talks and Economic Data

This week, we should see more economic data from the region after a rather quiet last week.

USD Outlook: Fed Cuts Delayed, Euro and Yen Monitor Stimulus and Intervention

It could have been a lot worse for EUR/USD this week. A set of FOMC minutes that poured cold water on a December rate cut and a strong headline rise in the US jobs report could have seen 1.1500 taken out again. But instead, investors seemed to have just delayed rather than abandoned pricing for Fed easing. And Europe may still being showing some signs of life

De-leveraging Lifts the Dollar as Markets Brace for Fed Signals and Tech Volatility

Global markets are trading in a slightly nervous fashion as they brace themselves for a potential correction in US tech stocks. So far, the correction has been modest compared to the 25% fall in bitcoin, but events over the next 24 hours will have a say in whether moves extend. We'll have FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings and the September jobs reporta

Pricing in Czech manufacturing remains tepid

Tepid pricing in the industry and weakening price dynamics in agriculture are a downward risk for consumer prices. If consumer spending remains steady, inflation is likely to hover around the target over the upcoming year. A combination of factors might result in a low-inflation environment

Market Outlook: US Recovery Post-Shutdown and CEE Monetary Policy

Next week, we’ll be watching for September’s delayed US jobs report and the release of October's more hawkish Fed minutes, which could dampen hopes for a December rate cut. We also expect the National Bank of Hungary to hold rates while signalling they’ll remain high for some time, with the release of Czech PPI data also due

Germany Confronts Structural Economic Weakness as New Policy Measures Signal a Shift

Earlier this summer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised a 'Fall of reforms'. This week, the government moved to accelerate decision-making, unveiling a fresh set of policy announcements within just the past 24 hours

Chuseok Holiday Distorts South Korea’s Labour Data as Job Market Weakens Slightly

South Korea’s jobless rate rose in October, but it remains below 3%. The Bank of Korea is expected to keep policy unchanged in November amid concerns about property risk and volatile foreign exchange markets

USD Rally Loses Momentum as Global Central Banks Signal Diverging Paths

It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release

Treasury Volatility and ECB Outlook: Contrasting Economic Signals and Liquidity Dynamics

In the Eurozone, ECB’s Schnabel sees money market rates rising as system reserves decline, with banks then turning to the ECB for liquidity. It is part of the plan and could happen in mid-2026, but is more likely to happen later. Meanwhile, US Treasuries are being buffeted by contrasting impulses. It's been quite a week, but we broadly end where we started

NBP Cuts Rates Again in November Amid Improving Inflation Outlook

As expected, NBP policymakers delivered their fourth consecutive 25bp rate cut in November, extending the scale of monetary easing this year to 150bp. Rate-setters reacted to lower current inflation, but may pause before a final adjustment to monetary policy. We see two more cuts in the first half of next year, with the target rate at 3.5-4% in 2026

USD Steady Amid Market Nervousness: ADP Data to Set the Tone

The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive

NBP Poised to Continue Easing as Inflation Nears Target

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has repeatedly warned of upside risks to inflation over the medium term, but this has not prevented the central bank from cutting rates as inflation moderates. Rate-setters have cut rates at each policy meeting since July, and we expect another 25bp cut on 5 November 

CEE Markets Brace for Inflation Data and Central Bank Meetings

Yesterday's PMI showed a mixed picture in the region, with the Czech Republic's lower-than-expected, while Poland and Hungary surprised with higher-than-expected readings. Inflation in Turkey surprised the market lower (2.6%/32.9%), in line with our estimate, and inflation returned to a declining trajectory.

EUR Steady as ECB Signals Policy Consensus; CAD Awaits Fiscal Boost

The slew of post-meeting ECB speakers has added little to the policy narrative. The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create new division among policymakers.

USD Holds Steady Ahead of Key ADP Data Release

FX markets are struggling to find direction this week. The Fed’s doubts on whether to cut in December naturally increase scrutiny of data: this means both depressed volatility during data silence and some potential exacerbation of USD reaction to any labour indicator (like tomorrow’s ADP). Our call remains that the dollar is close to its peak

US Treasuries Continue to Trade Heavily as Yields Edge Higher

US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge

COP30 Highlights Global Climate Gridlock as Corporate Sustainability Adapts to a Tougher Environment

The UN climate conference in Belém has ignited a fierce debate and highlighted serious climate policy hurdles, before it has even begun. Despite these challenges, we see COP30 as a pivotal opportunity for meaningful boardroom conversations on carbon markets, sustainable finance and renewables

Italian Inflation Cools Sharply in October Amid Energy and Food Slowdown

Italy's October inflation numbers show a marked deceleration. This is very much an energy and fresh food story, against stable core inflation. As we don’t expect an imminent change to the pattern, we're trimming our forecast for average 2025 headline inflation to 1.6%

Oil Market Softens Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting as Sanction Risks Fade"

PEC+ is scheduled to meet this weekend, with the expectation that the group will agree on an output hike for December

Tokyo Inflation Surprises to the Upside as Industrial Output Rebounds

Higher-than-expected Japanese inflation in October, together with improvements in production and retail sales, suggests growth is bottoming out toward quarter-end, while price pressures continue to intensify. The Bank of Japan may consider an earlier rate increase

USD Momentum Fades as ECB Holds Steady and CEE Currencies Find Support

The dollar enjoyed a second round of support yesterday as Powell's relatively hawkish press conference continued to resonate with data-starved markets. But the conditions for another big leg higher in USD aren't there, in our view. Meanwhile, Japan has intervened verbally to curb JPY volatility, and GBP is looking closely at Reeves' political position 

Spain’s Growth Cools but Remains Resilient Amid Broader European Slowdown

Spain’s economy grew by 0.6% over the third quarter, following a robust second quarter, as external demand weakened. With signs of cooling in industrial activity and tourism, growth is expected to normalise over the coming quarters and into 2026

Dollar Faces Modest Upside Risk Ahead of the Fed, But No Repeat of September’s Surge

We expect a 25bp Fed cut today, in line with pricing and consensus. In September, a similar setting from a pricing perspective prompted a sharp dollar rebound. Now, with positioning more balanced and inflation looking better, it’s harder to see the same reaction. We expect some CAD weakness as the Bank of Canada should also cut by 25bp today

EUR Steady as France Eyes Corporate Tax Hike; Softer UK Food Inflation Supports BoE Cut Bets

EUR/USD has nudged through resistance at 1.1650 in quiet markets. The softer dollar has been the driver, although we wonder whether some compromise on the French budget is helping too. 

Energy and Metals Markets: Middle Distillate Strength Amid Oil Sanctions, Gold Correction, and Copper Optimism

The oil market continues to digest the potential impact of US sanctions on Russian oil producers. Meanwhile, the risk of sanctions continues to provide a boost to middle distillates

Euro Awaits Ifo Signal as Yen and CEE Currencies Track Risk Sentiment

GBP Faces Softening vs EUR as UK Inflation Risks Align with Dovish Outlook; CEE FX Poised for Further Rally

Our economics team expects Wednesday's UK services inflation to undershoot the BoE's projection with a 4.6% read, which is also below the 4.8% consensus. That can modestly move the needle to the dovish side in the GBP swap curve and weigh on the pound this week.

EUR Seen at Fair Value as Market Focus Shifts to US Credit Risks

The eurozone calendar is empty until Friday’s PMI and EUR/USD moves will primarily depend on market sentiment about the US credit market. What is important to note is that EUR/USD is spot on its short-term fair value (1.167) despite the recent rally.

USD Faces Downside Risks Amid Regional Bank Concerns and Credit Quality Uncertainty

As Jamie Dimon warned, there may be more ‘cockroaches’ (i.e. distressed lenders) out there after two US regional banks reported credit issues last week. Markets will be looking very closely for evidence of that, and the dollar continues to face substantial downside risks. Later this week, US CPI should not come in hot enough to derail Fed easing plans

FinancialMarkets.media Celebrates Chairman Francesc Riverola’s Honorary Membership from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA)

FinancialMarkets.media proudly announces that its Chairman & Founder, Francesc Riverola, has been awarded an Honorary Membership from the Society of Technical Analysts Limited (STA), one of the most prestigious institutions in the world of Technical Analysis.

China’s Trade Resilience: Strong Export Growth and Surprise Import Surge Despite US Tensions

China's exports continued to beat forecasts in September, but the bigger surprise was the surge of imports to hit a 17-month high. This resilience shows that China has strengthened trade with the rest of the world amid US protectionisma

VirPoint Review 2025: Comprehensive Analysis of a Leading UK

VirPoint is a relatively young CFD (Contracts for Difference) broker that focuses on price transparency, speed of operation, and the ability to trade multiple asset classes from a single account. The company claims to have been founded in 2020 and to operate using modern security technologies. In this review, we will look at what is known for sure and what advantages and disadvantages the service provider has.

Gold Hits Record $4,000 as Central Banks and Investors Fuel Historic Rally

We have revised our gold forecast higher. Again

Macron’s Political Resolve Faces Market Test as Foreign Investors Shape French Bond Volatility

Recent headlines from France offer cautious optimism, with markets showing unexpected resilience despite domestic turmoil and broader uncertainties like the US shutdown. In European bonds, recouping the foreign investor shares after QE is not yet complete, although it can be a source of volatility

Metals and Tech Lead Rally as Yen Weakens After Japan’s LDP Election; USD Defies Correlation Patterns

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 6th

The week opens on the typical 2025 trade: Metals, propelled by Gold (1.90%) and Palladium (4.50%!), Cryptocurrencies, and Tech rage higher.