Recent headlines from France offer cautious optimism, with markets showing unexpected resilience despite domestic turmoil and broader uncertainties like the US shutdown. In European bonds, recouping the foreign investor shares after QE is not yet complete, although it can be a source of volatility
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 6th
The week opens on the typical 2025 trade: Metals, propelled by Gold (1.90%) and Palladium (4.50%!), Cryptocurrencies, and Tech rage higher.
A week dominated by central bank communications and seasonal dynamics kept investors on edge, even as the UN General Assembly passed without major geopolitical surprises except for some memorable US President Trump quotes.
The economy remains on track to see a small improvement in GDP growth in the third quarter as uncertainty fades and big shocks to trade have been avoided
You may be familiar with the hit teatime game show Pointless. And it's got me thinking. After a surprise rate cut from Sweden's Riksbank and, as the Fed kicks off its own easing cycle, will any of it make a difference? It's complicated, of course, but hopefully entertaining. Fingers on buzzers as we look ahead to another jackpot week in financial markets
The British Pound has continued its recent malaise against the US Dollar after a stellar rally ahead of the US interest rate decision. Since the decision, Cable has been on a downward trend as the US Dollar has continued to gain traction.
The dollar is a little stronger as investors reassess the immediacy of a US slowdown and what it means for interest rates. One early highlight for Europe is the Swiss National Bank meeting. Hardly anyone expects the policy rate to be cut into negative territory, but the franc remains strong and the SNB could try tweaking rates on excess reserves
The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since July, with gains of close to 1%. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6589, down 0.07% on the day.
The currency market had been dormant for a while, but this is now a theme of the past yet again.
Throughout August, a first move higher from the Pound got met with a subsequent consolidation until the beginning of this month .
Inflation is more or less at a peak, though it's likely to stay in the 3.5-4% area for the rest of this year. Rising food inflation is a particular bugbear of the Bank of England. Yet we aren't in the camp that thinks rate cuts are over, given the prospect of further progress in services inflation and wage growth
After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end. EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts. Even though valuations look stretched in equity and credit markets, we still prefer a benign decline in the dollar and a supported environment for risk assets and activity currencies
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The dollar has found a little support at the start of the week. Chinese authorities have now turned to fixing USD/CNY a little higher, which removes one of the dollar's negative impulses from last week. The highlight of an otherwise quiet session will be today's eurozone flash CPI release for August and the US ISM business confidence data
The MPC wraps up its first post-summer holiday meeting on 3 September, and we expect a 25bp rate cut as policymakers attempt to adjust the monetary stance to lower inflation. As we see inflation sustainably returning to target, we’re still pencilling in another cut later in the year, likely in November
After today's Labor Day holiday, this week's US calendar is packed with labour market data, culminating in Friday's August jobs report. Elsewhere, investors don't quite know what to make of an appeals court ruling Trump's universal tariffs illegal. Could it be a story of lost revenues weighing on the Treasury market? We expect the dollar to stay soft
Chinese equities hit a fresh three-year high, while India's Nifty 50 rebounded on Monday after President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended a weekend summit in Shanghai alongside leaders from Russia, Iran and Turkey. The meeting focused on strengthening ties among emerging markets in the face of what participants described as aggressive US trade policies.
Lisa Cook is challenging her dismissal in court, and markets are seemingly staying away from pricing in any substantial dovish shifts at the FOMC beyond what can be derived from data and Powell’s remarks. But the dollar’s downside risks have increased, even if that won’t show in the near term. Today’s focus will be on inflation data in the US and eurozone
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 5.00%, signalling a neutral stance amid stable inflation and slowing – but resilient – growth. While the easing cycle is nearing its end, one final rate cut this year remains likely, given our view of weaker GDP growth in the second half of the year
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6482, down 0.01% on the day.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that Trump’s dismissal of Lisa Cook is not going to have a big short-term FX impact. The implications may only play out in the longer run, as the current focus remains more on data. French politics also appears to be treated with plenty of caution by the currency market. We think EUR/USD can stabilise today
A mild miss in last week’s July inflation figures provided a bit of support for the Canadian dollar, which posted weekly gains against most other G10 currencies.
In a quiet week for FX markets, the dovish rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand overnight shows the importance of spare capacity in the economy as the central bank looks through a short-term rise in inflation. It looks like it's going to be a quiet day in G10 FX, although sterling and the Swedish krona will be reacting to CPI and the Riksbank
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Yesterday’s summit in Washington resulted in a clearer roadmap for peace talks and some openness about security guarantees from the US. But the euro was offered as news flowed, perhaps on the view that the bulk of key territorial negotiations are still ahead of us. US macro developments remain a bigger driver for EUR/USD, which still faces upside risks
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ile stocks continue to hit new highs, the worldwide sell-off in long-term government bonds is gathering pace. Rates actually rose more in nearly every G10 country than they did in the US last week, which certainly contributed to dollar weakness.
US Secretary Bessent said the Fed should cut by 50bp in September, and that rates are 150-175bp above where they should be. Markets aren’t considering a 50bp move as an option, and we doubt they will unless there are hints in that direction from Fed members or if the jobs data falls much further. Today, Norges Bank should hold rates, with some minor hawkish risk
After a rough month of July taking the most traded Major pair from 1.1830 highs to a 4-handle correction, the NFP report at the beginning of the month led a huge wave of higher mean-reversion – An end-July daily double top on the pair had brought fresh technical fuel to sell the Euro.
The British pound is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3455, up 0.05% on the day.
The Bank of England is keeping a close eye on two key fronts as it charts a rate path - inflation and employment. The BoE lowered rates last week in a decision that raised a lot of eyebrows since it took an unprecedented two rounds of voting to reach the decision. The close 5-4 vote points to dissension among MPC members as how best to proceed.
We expect a 0.4% month-on-month core CPI print in the US today, above the 0.3% consensus. That should offer the dollar support, but we don’t think that will prompt markets to seriously price out a September cut, meaning we can see decent buying in the EUR/USD dips. Headlines on upcoming US-Russia-Ukraine talks also remain relevant for markets
Earlier last week, the USD/JPY surged to a four-month high of 150.92 on 1 August, but its prior accumulated gains of the previous four sessions were all wiped out and formed a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” at the close of last Friday, 1 August US session.
The same day President Trump installed an (interim) dovish ally in the FOMC, the Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone, narrowly voting in favour of another 25bp rate cut. The US calendar is very quiet today, and some focus will be on Canada’s jobs figures. EUR/USD may wait until next week for a break above 1.170
US President Donald Trump appears to be advancing efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine truce. Markets are pricing in cautious optimism: oil, dollar, and the Swiss franc all came under pressure. CHF remains vulnerable amid the collapse of US-Switzerland trade talks. The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates today, but don’t expect any dovish shift
A typical summer trading session with most asset classes trading in tight ranges. USD ticked higher though on low volumes, while equity sentiment holds higher, boosted by tech earnings. Fed's Daly said disappointing jobs data, and limited tariff impact on inflation mean we may need more than two rate cuts which drove UST flattening on Monday, which has since reversed.
One could be forgiven for thinking that President Trump has now turned his attention to disassembling the BRICS political grouping. India, Russia and Brazil are squarely in focus currently. And benign market conditions in August clearly rely on no deterioration in the current US-China detente. Away from geopolitics, the focus today is on US ISM services
The first four days of the week were characterised by a broad dollar rally, as a solid GDP report, the signing of trade deals and a hawkish Fed acted to chip away at the greenback’s risk premium.
Following Friday's soft US jobs report, the dollar looks to stay offered this week. The firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, after President Trump accused the agency of manipulating jobs data for political gain, also adds pressure. And the early resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler – opening up the pick for Powell's successor – won't help
As discussed in the USD section, new 'reciprocal' tariffs are having little market impact. Canada deserves special attention in our view, though, especially after Mexico secured another pause extension yesterday.
The US has announced new 'reciprocal' tariffs (Canada, Switzerland and New Zealand are notable targets) while keeping the base rate at 10%. The muted market impact signals lingering expectations of trade deals and the much greater focus on data. Today, we expect payrolls at 115k and unemployment at 4.2%, which could lead to some consolidation of USD gains
Despite two dissenting votes, the Fed delivered a broadly hawkish hold, with Chair Powell remaining firm on his inflation call and forcing markets to trim September cut bets. The dollar’s rally may have a bit more to run as today’s core PCE figures may come in above consensus and tomorrow’s jobs figures prove good enough to endorse the Fed’s prolonged pause
South Korea reached a 15% tariff deal with the US, committing $350 billion in investments and buying $100 billion in US LNG and other energy imports. While some specifics remain unclear, the deal broadly aligns with expectations and has been positively received by markets
China's Politburo meeting showed that the policy stance will remain supportive while continuing to emphasise the recent focus on building domestic demand, supporting the hardest hit exporters, and addressing China's difficult "involution" problem. All eyes will now be on China's Fourth Plenum and the upcoming 15th Five Year Plan
The Canadian dollar has dropped less than other G10 currencies during this round of USD appreciation. For the moment, domestic factors aren’t playing much of a role, and markets remain quite conservative on Bank of Canada rate cuts, pricing in only 15bp by year-end.
The biggest takeaway from yesterday's sell-off in the euro was that some of this year's highest conviction trades were becoming a little stale. EUR/USD has already had a decent correction even before this week's negative event risks. Expect investors to remain cautious. For today, we'll be focusing on US JOLTS data and some European GDP data
The agreement on the long-awaited US-Japan trade deal should be good news for the yen. The deal will see 15% tariffs imposed on most sectors, including the country's all-important autos industry, lower than the 25% recently threatened by the White House.
The announcement of a US-EU trade deal has lifted equity futures on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors are more worried about a bubble now than a recession. The deal takes some pressure out of the 1 August tariff deadline and shifts the focus back to a very busy week of macro data. Here, we think the Fed meeting, inflation and jobs data can support the dollar
Interest rates have moved higher around the world as equity markets rally on a sense of optimism. The biggest factor behind that this week has probably been the US-Japan trade deal and the sense that a US-EU deal is close too. ECB President Christine Lagarde added to that trend yesterday with a more upbeat take on activity. Expect the euro to stay supported
The yen has continued to strengthen overnight, remaining the best performer in G10 since the start of the week, up 1.8% against the dollar. The US-Japan trade deal is seemingly reinforcing market expectations on a Bank of Japan rate hike by the end of the year, which is now 20bp priced in, up from 16bp earlier this week and a 10bp low earlier in July.
European markets have opened to news of a US-Japan trade deal. Equity markets globally are rallying on the view that deals reduce uncertainty. The yen, however, is less certain of what this all means – especially given the prospect of an imminent resignation from PM Ishiba. Elsewhere, commodity currencies continue to do well as industrial metals rally
We would not read too much into the marginal strengthening of the yen after Sunday's Upper House election result in Japan. Uncertainty is certainly on the rise here. For the week ahead, we have rate meetings in the eurozone, Hungary and Turkey, plus new business confidence readings in Europe. A new dam project in China also looks exciting for commodity FX
Retail sales and jobless claims were better than expected yesterday, offering more support for a hawkish rethink of Federal Reserve rate cuts. We expect the residual 14bp priced in for September to be gradually reduced and add pressure on EUR/USD. Elsewhere, Japan’s election on Sunday might trigger a break above 150.0 in USD/JPY
Yesterday’s US inflation failed to validate dovish bets on the Fed and triggered a bounce in the oversold dollar. We see more room for hawkish repricing in the coming weeks, and accordingly, upside risks for USD. Today, the US PPI and the Fed Beige Book are in focus. In the UK, services CPI came in hotter than expected, but tomorrow’s jobs data will be key for GBP
Bank Indonesia’s rate cut today surprised markets, but the overnight announcement of a trade deal with Indonesia by President Trump likely provided the confidence needed to proceed without delay. We continue to anticipate an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts by the first quarter of 2026
Financial markets continue in their glass half full view of the world as tariff deadlines get pushed back again. The dominant theme for this quarter we believe will be resurgent US inflation and a Fed resisting heavy political pressure to cut rates. This can deliver some brief respite to the dollar
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It's another day, another record for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while the Dow Jones hovers just a few points shy of its own all-time high. Small- and mid-cap stocks are also better bid—though still well below their post-election highs. Remarkably, all this optimism comes despite stronger-than-expected employment data that crushed any near-term hopes of a July Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. The odds of such a move dropped from around 27% to just 5% following the data.
Today's FX market focus is squarely on the June US jobs report. Does a consensus +110k release provide cover for Fed Chair Powell to continue resisting pressure to cut rates? Or will a weak number put a July rate cut squarely on the table? We think it's too early to say that we've reached 'peak bearishness' on the dollar – but the jobs data will set the tone
Is the first CNB rate hike closer than we think? Friday's inflation data poses an upside risk but the market remains unfazed. The CNB could easily find itself in a situation where inflation stays above 3% for a longer period, and neither the central bank nor the markets are prepared for it. The discussion could quickly change from whether we will see another CNB rate cut to when we will see the first rate hike
Czech PMI flips into expansion zone. The manufacturing PMI entered expansion territory in June, coming in stronger than market participants had expected. This is a welcome change, as the index had remained below the neutral threshold for three consecutive years. We see potential implications for rate-setters if the rebound gains pace and proves sustainable, as the economy picks up speed
FX Daily: The search for dovish validation continues. Yesterday’s US data was a mixed bag, failing to unequivocally endorse the recent speculation on Fed rate cuts. Today, focus will be on the PCE, personal spending and more Fedspeak. EUR/USD has its sights on 1.20, but the path to get there remains very conditional on US-related factors
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FX Daily: Data holds the key to FOMC balance. We expect the dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer examination, with the rationale that a softer jobs market can convert a few hawks after mild inflation failed to do so. EUR/USD continues to face upside risks
The dollar's bearish march has continued after the Middle East crisis brought scattered, short-lived support. EUR/USD has broken 1.170 and is setting its sights on 1.20. The recent short-term rate swings have increased the upside risks, but something needs to happen on tariffs, Treasuries or the Fed for a run to 1.20
Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, and markets had already started pricing out geopolitical risk yesterday as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the US appeared measured in size. The dollar is facing fresh pressure on the back of plummeting oil prices, and downside risks for USD remain elevated ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony later today
The Israel-Iran war is set to dominate currency trading after the US intervened over the weekend by bombing Iran’s main nuclear facilities.
In June's edition of our latest FX views and forecasts, we're focusing on why EUR/USD may not need to rush higher in the near term, how the yen remains an attractive bet in the longer run, and how domestic factors can start to take a more central role in FX now that markets are becoming accustomed to a weak dollar environment
CZK Poised to Gain as CNB Enters Blackout, Eyes on Hungary’s Budget Vote
The main story in FX remains the rapidly evolving Middle East conflict. If oil prices correct further due to perceived limited supply risk, the dollar can follow suit and move lower. However, some USD-supportive trade news may emerge from the G7 summit in Canada. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold, with the yen muted on hawkish signals
Israel’s decision to bomb Iran in order to stop its nuclear programme threw a lifeline to the dollar last week, which had been selling off amid a much lower than expected inflation print and worries about the US economy.
Geopolitical risks failed to update over the weekend and will remain central in FX price action. The dollar's rebound has been lacklustre, and while some support is warranted by the current market conditions, there'll still be a tendency to fade the rallies. A busy week for central banks should see cuts in Switzerland & Sweden, and holds in the UK & Norway
It’s been a hectic April as the whirlwind of tariff news after Trump’s 'Liberation Day' announcement consumed markets. As we have reached a period of relative calm, it’s a good time to reflect on the developments of the last month and how they have impacted the USD/CNY, which has come full circle this month
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• We re-add EUR longs after taking profit today on our long EURUSD spot trade as the pair hit our trailed stop. Eurozone investors are structurally short the EUR and a potential reallocation out of US equities could help the currency.
• We think CAD shorts offers good risk-reward given sensitivity to US growth and the recent unwind in short positioning.
• Trade idea: Long EURCAD. Entry 1.5522; Target 1.62; stop-loss 1.52; total allocation USD5mn.
• The People’s Bank of China has set the USDCNY fixing above 7.20 for the first time since September 2023, and the market may interpret this as a green light for USDRMB to rise to 7.5 to offset the tariff impact.
The foreign exchange market continues to remain volatile overnight with the high beta G10 currencies staging strong rebounds after heavy losses since last week. The best performing currencies have been the Australian and New Zealand dollars alongside the Norwegian krone which have all strengthened by 1% or more against the US dollar.
The dollar sank against major peers, dropping against the euro, and the safe haven yen and Swiss franc, as investors grappled with how U.S. President Donald Trump's far-reaching tariffs will impact global trade and economic growth.
JPY: The recent announcement of a higher-than-expected US reciprocal tariff on both China and Japan triggered JPY strength today. Despite the recent softening of US equity prices, President Trump’s decision to implement these higher-than-anticipated tariffs suggests the so-called “Trump Put” is unlikely to provide any immediate support.
The US dollar has continued to trade at weaker levels overnight after yesterday’s sharp sell-off in response to President Trump’s plans for “reciprocal tariffs”. The dollar index declined by 1.7% yesterday on a closing price basis which was the largest daily sell- off since November 2022.
The EM market has been in standby mode with high uncertainties ahead of the US tariff announcement at 16:00 ET on 2 April. The EM market seems to have partially priced in the US tariffs, but there could be more market reactions when the details are released.
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Investors are nervously waiting on the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. With reports that deliberations on the tariffs are still ongoing, even with hours left to their unveiling, as well as speculation about the form they will take, investors remain uncertain.
The announcement of the reciprocal tariff plan comes against a backdrop of worsening economic data which has been the key factor behind the change in financial market reaction to tariff news from US dollar supportive to dollar negative.