New valuation, old ambitions: why exactly 209 PLN?
Revision of the target price from higher levels to 209.00 PLN, is the result of cold calculation, not loss of faith in the business. Paweł Szpigiel, author of the recommendation, set a 12‑month target price for cyber_Folks shares at 209.00 PLN.
The document was prepared with the cyber_Folks share price at 177.00 PLN. On Tuesday, April 14, one share of cyber_Folks costs 179.30 PLN. Thus, if the recommendation proves correct, one share of the company would cost 16.56% more in a year.
It is worth noting that mBank updated the valuation after publishing the results for Q4 2025, taking into account several key macroeconomic factors. First, a new risk‑free rate level (RFR) was adopted. Second, the growth rate in the residual period (terminal growth) was lowered to protect against heightened risk in the tech sector in the AI era.
Despite these adjustments, growth potential remains at solid 16.56%. In the tech industry, where margins are high and infrastructure customer loyalty (hosting, domains) is almost cemented, such valuations may seem attractive to investors seeking stable fundamentals in a perpetually rocking sea of speculation and PR promises.
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Risks that must not be ignored
Every investment carries risk, so the picture drawn by mBank analysts is not all rosy. The main alarm signal is debt. At the end of December 2025, the net debt / EBITDA ratio was 1.33x, with a large exposure to the variable WIBOR rate. Added to this is cyber‑security and geopolitical risk. As a manager of massive transactional data sets, cyber_Folks is a target for hacker groups, and any incident could crush the company’s reputation built over years. mBank experts point to rising IT service costs and staffing risk as well.
As highlighted in the report by Paweł Szpigiel:
The cyber_Folks team is highly specialized, which on one hand provides a competitive advantage, but on the other increases operational risk if key employees leave. Difficulty in quickly replacing experts can lead to delays in project delivery, deterioration of service quality, and a negative impact on the company’s reputation. In the IT market, where talent competition is intense, this risk should be considered significant.
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The market in the shadow of panic over AI
Cyber Folks shares have risen by 17.84% to 178.6 PLN since the beginning of the year.
The main driver of the cyber_Folks share sell‑off was investors’ fear that the rapid development of generative AI could wipe out traditional software models from the network surface.
The market began to panic‑price the so‑called “seat compression” scenario, i.e., a reduction in paid accounts in SaaS systems, because AI supposedly replaces employees. It is worth noting that such sentiment is fueled by any news where companies say layoffs are due to AI solutions.
The most drastic example in recent weeks may be Block (Jack Dorsey, co‑founder of Twitter), which laid off 40% of employees to replace them with AI.
BM mBank in its report points out this simplified thinking, as Cyber_Folks is not a single, easily replaceable tool, but a powerful, multi‑layered ecosystem.
Although the target price is lowered by BM mBank to 209.00 PLN, the “buy” recommendation remains supported.
Chart. Cyber Folks share price
Source: TradingView
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