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Sector: Health Care & biotechnology
Market Cap: US$ 24.1 m
Bloomberg: BMX PW
Av. daily turnover: US$ 0.03 m
Price: PLN 24.25
12M range: PLN 18.14-31.05
12M EFV: PLN 36.40 (→)
Free float: 73%
Recent events
Upcoming events
Guide to adjusted profits
No factors necessitating adjustments.
Key data
Stock performance
We expect 4Q22 revenues to be lower yoy due to the high base effect (in 4Q21 the Company’s results were supported by the agreement for a huge SARS-CoV-2 tests delivery). Currently, testing for SARS-CoV-2 contributes marginally to the Company’s revenues (less than 3% in 3Q22). Similarly to the previous quarter, 4Q22 profitability should be affected by high inflation. At the moment BioMaxima is presumably making adjustments in the price lists to account for higher costs, which, in the management’s opinion, may take one or two quarters. All in all, we forecast 4Q22 and FY22 revenues/ EBITDA/ EBIT/ NI to reach PLN 13.1/ 1.0/ 0.5/ 0.5 million and PLN 143.6/ 37.2/ 35.2/ 29.0 million, respectively.
Sales. After the exceptional 2022 we do not expect subsequent big contracts for a SARS-CoV-2 tests delivery to follow and forecast the Company’s recurring revenues at PLN 50-60 million annually (before launching a new production facility). Given some delay in the launch of new production capacities we assume that their contribution to revenues will be visible no sooner than from 4Q23. In result, we lower our FY23 sales forecast to PLN 56 million and assume that new production capacities will help increase the Company’s sales to c. PLN 100 million in FY26.
Profitability. We believe FY23 margins will be under pressure from (i) higher costs (the price list adjustment corresponding to a costs increase may take one or two quarters) and (ii) possible one-off costs related to the launch of new production lines. We expect the EBIT margin to hit c. 11% this year while in the following years an increase in the share of own products in the sales mix with a growing scale of operations should support the Company’s profitability and generally we assume slightly higher margins in the upcoming years vs our previous forecasts.
CAPEX. On the back of a purchase of a new production line announced in January (BioMaxima was granted a funding for 60% of the investment value) we raise FY23 capex forecast from PLN 10.4 million to PLN 12.5 million and the high inflation environment makes us slightly upgrade capex forecasts for the following years which results in the D&A forecast increase.
Net cash. In spite of high investments carried out this year we expect the Company’s net cash to reach PLN 6.9 million eop considering the impact of a dividend proposal at PLN 0.50 per share which turned out lower than we expected (PLN 1.00 per share) and partial working capital release due to a lower sales forecast.
Read next: WSE: Action - Event: 4Q22 financial results released – close to our forecasts.| FXMAG.COM
The changes in our financial forecasts do not have any material impact on estimations of the Company’s FCF in the definite forecast period which coupled with the lower RFR increases our DCF valuation of BioMaxima’s equities. Due to lowering of 2023- 25 forecasts the peer relative comparison is lower. The above mentioned factors offset each other and ultimately our 12M EFV for Biomaxima at PLN 36.40 stays intact.
Catalysts
Risk factors
Competitive advantages
Analysts: Sylwia Jaśkiewicz, CFA Mikołaj Stępień
