Bitcoin price at a crossroads. We have a small breakthrough, but the road to a rally may be long

Bitcoin in geopolitical stalemate
Bitcoin’s price fares worse than Ethereum’s

Bitcoin still cannot launch a counterattack. Much points to the market waiting for developments in the Middle East.

Bitcoin in geopolitical stalemate

Cryptocurrencies reacted to the war in the Middle East in a surprising way. First their valuations slightly fell, but ultimately we saw a bounce. The market also did not produce new local minima, which should be natural in a portfolio of risky assets during geopolitical shocks.

The markets were waiting for a Wednesday statement from US President Donald Trump, but he did not surprise, only announced continuation of the war with Iran, which caused shocks in energy markets. He added only that the conflict would last at most three weeks. He also distanced himself from the issue of the Ormuz Strait – he said Americans do not need it, so its potential unlocking is in the interest of other countries.

“Trump’s latest comments on the war with Iran triggered a sharp selloff amid a lack of de-escalation signals” – noted Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, adding that Bitcoin’s price remains in consolidation between 66,000 and 69,000 USD.

“In the cryptocurrency market we see wide declines and a fatal sentiment. Most tokens register significant discounts, although larger cryptocurrencies fare relatively better. Bitcoin loses 1.5%, reaching 67,200 USD. Ethereum loses over 4% and drops to 2,060 USD,” reported yesterday’s market situation by Kamil Szczepański, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB.

Advertising

“Bitcoin largely follows the market trend, although in recent weeks it has shown less sensitivity to both good and bad news” – added Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets.

Overall, however, Bitcoin investors cannot complain much: the cryptocurrency so far is doing better since the US attack on Iran than many other assets. March was buoyed by a 2% rise compared to the previous month, breaking a five‑month series of declines.

Against this backdrop even gold, usually considered a safe haven, ended the month down over 11%.

What may worry is the lack of conviction about further gains among large Bitcoin holders. The so‑called “whales”, according to CryptoQuant data, have become net sellers, selling significant amounts of BTC in the last year.

“On‑chain data confirm what the price action was hinting at: there is no conviction [about further gains]”, warns Jasper De Maere, trader at Wintermute.

It is also indicated by the fear and greed index, which shows extreme fear among investors. Today it was at 9.

Advertising

✕

Meanwhile, net flows into US‑listed Bitcoin‑based ETF funds recorded more withdrawals than deposits on Wednesday. On April 1 investors withdrew as much as 174 million USD; on April 2 it was slightly better: the balance was +9 million USD, but it did not offset the earlier sales.

Overall, in March a net inflow into ETFs of about 1.1 billion USD was recorded. The situation looked better than the last four months, when capital outflows dominated.

See also: Bitcoin price before a major crash? This scenario “will put pressure on the decline of cryptocurrency asset values”, says the expert

Advertising