european central bank

USD Outlook: Fed Cuts Delayed, Euro and Yen Monitor Stimulus and Intervention

It could have been a lot worse for EUR/USD this week. A set of FOMC minutes that poured cold water on a December rate cut and a strong headline rise in the US jobs report could have seen 1.1500 taken out again. But instead, investors seemed to have just delayed rather than abandoned pricing for Fed easing. And Europe may still being showing some signs of life

ECB on Hold as Excess Liquidity Gradually Declines Across the Eurozone

Unlike the Fed or the Bank of England, the ECB looks to have more time before excess reserves reach levels where bigger shifts in banks' behaviour will become obvious. Recourse to the ECB facilities remains relatively low and upward pressure on short-term rates is still very gradual

EUR Steady as ECB Signals Policy Consensus; CAD Awaits Fiscal Boost

The slew of post-meeting ECB speakers has added little to the policy narrative. The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create new division among policymakers.

Muted Euro Momentum, Dovish BoC, and Fragile CEE FX Define the Week

Dutch Pension Reforms Could Increase Long-End Volatility, but Market Stress Remains Limited

The Dutch central bank acknowledges risks to interest rates linked to the 1 January 2026 transition of Dutch pension funds, but also sees mitigants to prevent market stress. The 10s30s has more room to steepen from a structural perspective, but we don't fully discount the probability of seeing some flattening in January 

Volatility Collapse Boosts Carry Trades as ECB Bias Remains Toward Easing

Seemingly defying a backdrop of high uncertainty even by the ECB’s own accounts, volatility in markets continues to decline. On the surface, it may look like complacency. But a perceived limited upside in rates, and a potentially bigger downside if they were to actually start falling, also gives spreads their backing

ECB Minutes Signal Rates on Hold Amid Uncertainty, but Dovish Risks Remain

The just-released minutes of the ECB’s September meeting show a unanimous decision to keep interest rates on hold, viewing this approach as the most appropriate response to ongoing elevated uncertainty

Germany Inflation Rises to 2.4%, But Deflation Risks Loom

Headline inflation has increased to its highest level since the spring, but other German macro data published today suggests that inflation will not be the economy's biggest problem in the months ahead